Author Topic: So Who's Buying A Mega Millions Ticket? (Read 25907 times)

Dan · « **Reply #80 on:** March 29, 2012, 01:46:10 PM »

I'll find out when the newspaper comes to my door shabbos morning.

Avid Reader · « **Reply #81 on:** March 29, 2012, 01:48:00 PM »

Chipped in a pull with co-workers for 100 tickets.
Otherwise, I can't remember the last time I bought a lotto ticket.

Ergel · « **Reply #82 on:** March 29, 2012, 01:50:49 PM »

Quote from: Avid Reader on March 29, 2012, 01:48:00 PM

Chipped in a pull with co-workers for 100 tickets.
Otherwise, I can't remember the last time I bought a lotto ticket.

I don't get that. You'll end up with 2 million which is a lot of money but not really transformative

skyguy918 · « **Reply #83 on:** March 29, 2012, 01:52:36 PM »

Quote from: good sam on March 29, 2012, 01:15:36 PM

Hmm. I'll think about it. Flyguy, what would your colleague say about a $0.50 ticket? Still no positive return?

Quote from: HelpMe on March 29, 2012, 01:20:33 PM

No way to figure that out without knowing how many tickets are being sold.

Most of them are pretty confident that it's a positive expected return, even at $1. The issue is variance. Obviously you can't know anything for sure without knowing the number of tickets sold, but as is the case with any actuarial pricing, they made educated assumptions.

MarkS · « **Reply #84 on:** March 29, 2012, 01:54:13 PM »

Quote from: Ergel on March 29, 2012, 01:50:49 PM

I don't get that. You'll end up with 2 million which is a lot of money but not really transformative

So he can buy one on his own for $1. The advantage is that he has 100 chances to win 2 million.
In an ordinary lottery you would either have to pay $100 to get those 100 chances or in say a 50 million lottery and you split it 100 ways you're getting peanuts.
Here you have an opportunity to split 100 ways and still get 2 million!

HelpMe · « **Reply #85 on:** March 29, 2012, 02:02:05 PM »

Quote from: skyguy918 on March 29, 2012, 01:52:36 PM

Most of them are pretty confident that it's a positive expected return, even at $1. The issue is variance. Obviously you can't know anything for sure without knowing the number of tickets sold, but as is the case with any actuarial pricing, they made educated assumptions.

Let them base it on 300-400 million in tickets sold. That will not be a positive return.

skyguy918 · « **Reply #86 on:** March 29, 2012, 02:04:36 PM »

Quote from: MarkS on March 29, 2012, 01:54:13 PM

So he can buy one on his own for $1. The advantage is that he has 100 chances to win 2 million.
In an ordinary lottery you would either have to pay $100 to get those 100 chances or in say a 50 million lottery and you split it 100 ways you're getting peanuts.
Here you have an opportunity to split 100 ways and still get 2 million!

I think his point is that the only reason to buy a lottery ticket is for the possibility of winning a transformative amount of money (eg so much that you'll never work again). So even though you have the same value buying 1 ticket for $1 as 1/100 of 100 tickets for $1, it defeats the purpose.

Of course what constitutes a transformative sum is subjective, as is whether or not that's the only reason to buy a ticket.

Avid Reader · « **Reply #87 on:** March 29, 2012, 02:04:46 PM »

Quote from: Ergel on March 29, 2012, 01:50:49 PM

I don't get that. You'll end up with 2 million which is a lot of money but not really transformative

It's actually limited to 10 co-workers who each put in 10$. I didn't really think into it that much, Just though it made sense. Bottom line you have 100 chances of winning.

Avid Reader · « **Reply #88 on:** March 29, 2012, 02:05:52 PM »

Quote from: skyguy918 on March 29, 2012, 02:04:36 PM

(eg so much that you'll never work again).

Not a good idea no matter how much money you win, IMHO.

skyguy918 · « **Reply #89 on:** March 29, 2012, 02:07:15 PM »

Quote from: HelpMe on March 29, 2012, 02:02:05 PM

Let them base it on 300-400 million in tickets sold. That will not be a positive return.

My first sentence was directed at good sam, my second at you. I don't remember the arguments for the various assumptions as to number of tickets sold. Out of curiousity, where are yougetting 3-4m?

good sam · « **Reply #90 on:** March 29, 2012, 02:07:43 PM »

Quote from: HelpMe on March 29, 2012, 01:44:34 PM

I would not feel right disturbing you. You would know you won when you see a goy with a DDF shirt collecting the check.

you wouldn't do that would you? (also ftfy)

AJK · « **Reply #91 on:** March 29, 2012, 02:09:21 PM »

Quote from: Ergel on March 29, 2012, 01:50:49 PM

I don't get that. You'll end up with 2 million which is a lot of money but not really transformative

Why does it have to be transformative? You'd turn down $2 million?

skyguy918 · « **Reply #92 on:** March 29, 2012, 02:09:40 PM »

Quote from: Avid Reader on March 29, 2012, 02:05:52 PM

Not a good idea no matter how much money you win, IMHO.

I meant work for a living, it doesn't mean you have to sit around lighting cigars with benjamins. I know of enough independently wealthy individuals who devote 90% of their 'working' time to tzorchei tzibbur. Of course the dangers of all that money are great, that goes without saying.

HelpMe · « **Reply #93 on:** March 29, 2012, 02:13:06 PM »

Quote from: skyguy918 on March 29, 2012, 02:07:15 PM

My first sentence was directed at good sam, my second at you. I don't remember the arguments for the various assumptions as to number of tickets sold. Out of curiousity, where are yougetting 3-4m?

190 mill sold last week.

Ergel · « **Reply #94 on:** March 29, 2012, 02:15:10 PM »

Quote from: Avid Reader on March 29, 2012, 02:04:46 PM

It's actually limited to 10 co-workers who each put in 10$. I didn't really think into it that much, Just though it made sense. Bottom line you have 100 chances of winning.

That makes a lot more sense to me (although probably a waste of $10...)