Kosher, Kashrus and Hechsherim Master thread

[shulem92]

The chazaka paskens on each individual cow. It does not tell us that within this herd there definitely aren’t any treifos. Reality tells us there are.

do you agree that chazaka tells me on each cow that it isn’t a treifa until right before shechita? That even if we find this cow is a vadai treifa it wasn’t always like this? If so how can you tell me that right now there is treifa in this herd? (Unless you’re shechting right now, which then I may agree with you within 3 days because of siman 81).

[moko]

You have zero basis to allege that they are better than other cows, especially if we see that they are worse when shechted.

Would they not require בדיקת הריאה? Of course they do. Because we know a certain amount are treifos. And therefore when a large amount is mixed you are guaranteed treifos. Vadai.

that is incorrect. We definitely know that younger milking cows are in better health than older milking and meat cows
Also, organic free pasture is known to be better because of diet and exercise (not just to prevent da, but fir overall animal health)

[imayid2]

that is incorrect. We definitely know that younger milking cows are in better health than older milking and meat cows

Health isn’t necessarily an indication for treifos. Again, clearly their conditions cause more treifos. And again, would they not need bedika?

[imayid2]

do you agree that chazaka tells me on each cow that it isn’t a treifa until right before shechita? That even if we find this cow is a vadai treifa it wasn’t always like this?

Yes

If so how can you tell me that right now there is treifa in this herd? (Unless you’re shechting right now, which then I may agree with you within 3 days because of siman 81).

Because חזקה isn’t a birur on the metzious.

[shulem92]

YesBecause חזקה isn’t a birur on the metzious.

ok, but what is telling you otherwise that the metzius isn’t like that??

[imayid2]

ok, but what is telling you otherwise that the metzius isn’t like that??

The chazaka talks to each cow. That chazaka isn’t going against the metzius.

[shulem92]

The chazaka talks to each cow. That chazaka isn’t going against the metzius.

what metzius?? The only metzius that has been discussed in this conversation has been AFTER shechita!

[imayid2]

[chessman1]

The chazaka paskens on each individual cow. It does not tell us that within this herd there definitely aren’t any treifos. Reality tells us there are.

Reality tells us that there likely are. It doesn't guarantee it.

[imayid2]

Reality tells us that there likely are. It doesn't guarantee it.

It absolutely does.

[chessman1]

It absolutely does.

Do you think it's impossible to find 100 non-treifa cows in the world?

[imayid2]

Do you think it's impossible to find 100 non-treifa cows in the world?

No

Do you think it’s impossible to flip a coin 10,000 times and get the same results?

[chessman1]

No

Do you think it’s impossible to flip a coin 10,000 times and get the same results?

If you flip a coin enough times, it's certainly possible (and even expected eventually).

Also, the relevant comparison here for 100 cows (assuming that 50% of cows are treifos), would be flipping that coin 100 times.

The analogy also breaks down because flipping the coin is truly 10,000 independent events, each with a 50% likelihood of either outcome. Here, you could have 100 of the best, healthiest cows (which have lower rates of treifos) or 100 of the worst, decrepit cows (with an incredibly high rate of treifos).

[imayid2]

If you flip a coin enough times, it's certainly possible (and even expected eventually).

Also, the relevant comparison here for 100 cows (assuming that 50% of cows are treifos), would be flipping that coin 100 times.

The analogy also breaks down because flipping the coin is truly 10,000 independent events, each with a 50% likelihood of either outcome. Here, you could have 100 of the best, healthiest cows (which have lower rates of treifos) or 100 of the worst, decrepit cows (with an incredibly high rate of treifos).

I’m not really understanding your statistical analysis. I’m going to refer you back to Rabbi Cohen and Rabbi Bleich who explain it clearly.

(Also we are not talking about 100 cows. Current farms have many times more than that)

[aygart]

(Also we are not talking about 100 cows. Current farms have many times more than that)

So what? With 60 it is  over 99% already. At which point are you considering it worse than that and why?

[imayid2]

So what? With 60 it is  over 99% already. At which point are you considering it worse than that and why?

At what point do you consider it an impossibility and why?

[aygart]

At what point do you consider it an impossibility and why?

Is you have something to present then do it

[imayid2]

Is you have something to present then do it

I do not, do you?

[shulem92]

if I meet him I will ask him the same question. What happened to siman 81 proving to us that we don’t care about any potential treifos until 3 days before shechita. (Unless it can be seen externally)

[chessman1]

I’m not really understanding your statistical analysis. I’m going to refer you back to Rabbi Cohen and Rabbi Bleich who explain it clearly.

(Also we are not talking about 100 cows. Current farms have many times more than that)

The statistic that I believe R' Cohen quoted (which you noted in your prior post https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=16659.msg2844871#msg2844871) was that if 10% of cows are treifos, then the likelihood of finding 16 or fewer treifos in 1,000 cows is less than 100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.

But that probability is only true (I'm trusting his math on this) if you assume a population treifa level of 10%, that you're selecting cows at random from the whole population, and that there aren't any other factors impacting the likelihood of treifos in the cows you select. If the cows that you're milking have characteristics that make them much less likely to be treifa, you aren't guaranteed 17 or more treifos just because that's what you would find in a random sample of the whole population.