Kosher, Kashrus and Hechsherim Master thread

[imayid2]

The statistic that I believe R' Cohen quoted (which you noted in your prior post https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=16659.msg2844871#msg2844871) was that if 10% of cows are treifos, then the likelihood of finding 16 or fewer treifos in 1,000 cows is less than 100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.

But that probability is only true (I'm trusting his math on this) if you assume a population treifa level of 10%, that you're selecting cows at random from the whole population, and that there aren't any other factors impacting the likelihood of treifos in the cows you select. If the cows that you're milking have characteristics that make them much less likely to be treifa, you aren't guaranteed 17 or more treifos just because that's what you would find in a random sample of the whole population.

They don’t have factors that make them less likely, they have more as far as anyone knows.

[chessman1]

They don’t have factors that make them less likely, they have more as far as anyone knows.

Some group of cows has to have characteristics that make them less likely to be treifa than the median...

[EliJelly]

@imayid2 you're drinking chalav treifa!!
(Now use your good skills to farentfer why you aren't )

[imayid2]

@imayid2 you're drinking chalav treifa!!
(Now use your good skills to farentfer why you aren't )

My Rav said it’s ok

[aygart]

I do not, do you?

רוב

[EliJelly]

My Rav said it’s ok

You do not appear to be that fanatic chosid

[imayid2]

@imayid2 you're drinking chalav treifa!!
(Now use your good skills to farentfer why you aren't )

I think an important factor to consider is that milk cows need to have babies, and if they have babies they aren’t treifos.

[imayid2]

רוב

Is there such a thing as a statistical impossibility in Halacha?

[aygart]

Is there such a thing as a statistical impossibility in Halacha?

I don't know of a source for it. Do you?

[EliJelly]

I think an important factor to consider is that milk cows need to have babies, and if they have babies they aren’t treifos.

If we shecht them now while still bearing offspring then the percentages of treifos are way less? Then you do agree with moko's argument.

[imayid2]

You do not appear to be that fanatic chosid

A מורה הוראה for shailos beyond ones capabilities is not chassidish

[EliJelly]

A מורה הוראה for shailos beyond ones capabilities is not chassidish

You obviously believe that psak is wrong and side with Rav Shechter on this question.

[imayid2]

I don't know of a source for it. Do you?

Not in those exact words but for example the Mordechai I quoted says the same idea.

[imayid2]

If we shecht them now while still bearing offspring then the percentages of treifos are way less? Then you do agree with moko's argument.

No I do not. It’s a separate argument in which although to us they appear treif there is an override since they gave birth.

[EliJelly]

No I do not. It’s a separate argument in which although to us they appear treif there is an override since they gave birth.

Obviously if the "metzius" is that a small percentage are vadai treif, then the metzius is also that not "all" of them will give birth. 

[imayid2]

You obviously believe that psak is wrong and side with Rav Shechter on this question.

Not really, while I don’t have a good understanding of the heiterim I recognize that these complex concepts of Halacha aren’t known sufficiently by myself to make a הכרעה against the rest of the world.

[imayid2]

Obviously if the "metzius" is that a small percentage are vadai treif, then the metzius is also that not "all" of them will give birth.

Should drastically reduce the numbers though and make it impossibility to have a true knowledge of if there is a vadai problem so we’d revert back to rov.

[EliJelly]

Should drastically reduce the numbers though and make it impossibility to have a true knowledge of if there is a vadai problem so we’d revert back to rov.

So there is no metzius for younger cows to have 1.66%+ vadai treif in this herd. It's not that the fact that they are still giving birth proves us anything because according to your metzius we would easily establish that at least 2 percent indeed won't give birth, as that cannot go against the metzius. So basically you now agree that for younger cows your "metzius" is not that concrete.

[aygart]

Not in those exact words but for example the Mordechai I quoted says the same idea.

Remind me the maare makom

[imayid2]

So there is no metzius for younger cows to have 1.66%+ vadai treif in this herd. It's not that the fact that they are still giving birth proves us anything because according to your metzius we would easily establish that at least 2 percent indeed won't give birth, as that cannot go against the metzius. So basically you now agree that for younger cows your "metzius" is not that concrete.

No.

Although there is vadai treifos at a high rate, that does not establish they won’t give birth. They give birth and thus receive a pass on their treifakeit.