Plan B Discussion: Booking BusinessFirst Awards Without Availability

[ilherman]

They're far more sophisticated then that. Don't come crying when you're blacklisted.

agree. i never did such a thing, but someone, i think in the United award thread was asking this ? about 5 times, and no one know what to answer him so here is his answer.

[ilherman]

Example on the 10:45 pm flight tomorrow night was the seat map showing today avail. 4 seats in J, but was NOT Avail. for revenue, i figured out the last few weeks when they usually open up, and when it came the time, it got avail. for saver award, i got one for my brother, someone else was also lucky.... and now the seat map show's 2 in J. what do you say to this story? even i cant figure out their system, its very complicated....

[Dan]

If you can't understand exactly what is happening after my explanation I can't help you.
It's exactly that simple.  They're not blocking J inventory for giggles.

[ilherman]

If you can't understand exactly what is happening after my explanation I can't help you.
It's exactly that simple.  They're not blocking J inventory for giggles.

did you see my example?

[ilherman]

by now i even have the timings when they open up all the saver awards, would i be able to talk to you i would tell it to you... but dont wonna let out my secrets here in public...

[Dan]

did you see my example?

I just proved to you that the current release of the 2 saver awards for the flight today had nothing to do with the 3 empty seats you saw and everything to do with there now being 5 empty seats, meaning that 2 people cancelled. Simple as that, don't try to complicate it.

Seat maps do not indicate anything besides people who have booked tickets and not assigned seats.  Everything you need to know can be found on UA.com>Expert Mode>Fare Class buckets.

It's no secret that UA opens saver seats within 24 hours of flights as long as there is inventory there.

[Dan]

FTR, there are a myriad of reasons why seats would be empty when they are sold.

They can be bought by people who want to sit together and therefore didn't select seats, they can be part of a travel agent or group booking where they're not assigned.
People can also skip the seat selection when booking their own tickets and won't be assigned until they checkin.

I was on a flight recently where the seat map was wide open an hour out and the flight ended up nearly full.
Seat maps can also show full when there are lots of seats blocked for bulkhead, pilots, or just weight and balance issues.

The bottom line is seat maps are cute but they prove zilch.

There's no connection between a seat map and predicting X, XN, I, IN, or R availability when J or Y is sold out.

[ilherman]

I just proved to you that the current release of the 2 saver awards for the flight today had nothing to do with the 3 empty seats you saw and everything to do with there now being 5 empty seats, meaning that 2 people cancelled. Simple as that, don't try to complicate it.

Seat maps do not indicate anything besides people who have booked tickets and not assigned seats.  Everything you need to know can be found on UA.com>Expert Mode>Fare Class buckets.

It's no secret that UA opens saver seats within 24 hours of flights as long as there is inventory there.

yeh... but the secret is when they open up just 2 awards u wonna be the first to know that... so by knowing exactly when they open up u can grab them, neither of the openings today lasted more then a few min EF didnt even have a chanse to notify for it. (btw as i see EF runs about 20 min. late from when United actual opens up saver award) to the end please dont argue again..... im sitting hours and hours to figure out United, im not that silly... they are not so simple, look over my example with the 10:45 pm flight tomorrow night... HYATT does not give free internet... its very hard to type on my phone .... any wife is already asking if im on vacation with dan or with her....

[Dan]

Wow, you're sitting hours and hours to figure out United?
I've been doing this for 10 years, every day.

They don't magically open up 2 saver seats.  If there are revenue seats within 24 hours they will become saver awards.  This isn't a game United plays to deprive themselves of revenue by zeroing out inventory and then magically adding it.  If someone cancels their seat then it goes right back into the revenue fare bucket and if it's within 24 hours of the flight it probably goes into X/I saver award inventory.  As I said this happens a lot in business because seats are refundable.

Nothing will alert you to when someone is going to cancel and someone else will book it up. EF isn't a live feed. And for the last time this has nothing to do with the silly seat map.

I'm done here.

[ilherman]

once again, it was showing 4 empty seats for a nice cuple of hours today, that was not avail for $ and all of the sudden it got avail. 2 J saver awards with out showing more seats, just the same 4 seats that was showing all day on the seat map.

[ilherman]

by the next seminar ill have to discuss this with you FTF

[Dan]

once again, it was showing 4 empty seats for a nice cuple of hours today, that was not avail for $ and all of the sudden it got avail. 2 J saver awards with out showing more seats, just the same 4 seats that was showing all day on the seat map.

That proves nothing. Those pax could have checked in then to get their seats and 2 other pax could have cancelled.

My earlier example of the 3 seats/5 seats on the other hand for the 410 flight demonstrates exactly what I'm trying to explain to you but you're not willing to listen.

There is a reason there are a quarter million results on FT that "seat maps are not an indicator of flight load."

by the next seminar ill have to discuss this with you FTF

I'll pass, but thanks.
Go back to your vacation and stop trying to prove what you'll never possibly prove.

[MEIR613]

once again, it was showing 4 empty seats for a nice cuple of hours today, that was not avail for $ and all of the sudden it got avail. 2 J saver awards with out showing more seats, just the same 4 seats that was showing all day on the seat map.

What don't you get. The 4 seats had nothing to do with it. They are empty because some pax didn't choose their seats. The 2 saver seats became available because they are better off putting them in award seats and someone taking them, then putting them out for money and going empty.

[AJK]

Have you been reading ANYTHING that Dan's been writing about the absolute irrelevance of seat maps, or do you just like to listen to yourself talk? They mean nothing. Period.

ETA: oops, seems like I got beat to the punch.

[ilherman]

What don't you get. The 4 seats had nothing to do with it. They are empty because some pax didn't choose their seats. The 2 saver seats became available because they are better off putting them in award seats and someone taking them, then putting them out for money and going empty.

ive got the seat that was showing avail. Hours before on the seat map, and were not avail. for $, are you saying that pinkt the guys who haven't chose their seat they canceled out....

[Dan]

ive got the seat that was showing avail. Hours before on the seat map, and were not avail. for $, are you saying that pinkt the guys who haven't chose their seat they canceled out....

That's the worst logic I've ever heard. Seriously.
Can someone else please take over for me here.

[ilherman]

That's the worst logic I've ever heard. Seriously.
Can someone else please take over for me here.

would u be right, it would show up 6 seats when it opened up the 10:45 pm flight, 4 that were for the unassigned seats, and another 2 what ur saying that just got available because 2 ppl canceled. However I've bin booking several biz. Class for ppl EWR-TLV based on my opinions how United is opening up and made nice $, so I wouldn't change my mind I'm making $ and you guys think whatever you think is right and שלום על ישראל.

[AJK]

That's the worst logic I've ever heard. Seriously.
Can someone else please take over for me here.

Frankly, I think you deserve kudos just for understanding what he's writing. I still can't make it out.

[A3]

That proves nothing. Those pax could have checked in then to get their seats and 2 other pax could have cancelled.

My earlier example of the 3 seats/5 seats on the other hand for the 410 flight demonstrates exactly what I'm trying to explain to you but you're not willing to listen.

There is a reason there are a quarter million results on FT that "seat maps are not an indicator of flight load."
I'll pass, but thanks.
Go back to your vacation and stop trying to prove what you'll never possibly prove.

Another example: a couple months ago my wife was flying UA FLL-EWR  with a one year old and two year old. So had to buy two seats. The seat for the two year old about 15 rows behind her. Ok this easily could have been settled in the airport, but she wanted it settled before. Online it was showing no other seats available, on the phone they couldn't help me out either. I sent a short tweet to AU about the situation. 10 minutes later they had seats next to each other.
Any other way to explain this.


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[AJK]

Showing no seats available on the seat map?