Stocks

[hachover]

Fill in the blank.

Knowing the market is overvalued that should be just as valuable as knowing the market is undervalued.

When one knows it is undervalued they by equity. When one knows its overvalued they buy__guns and ammo___.

It's not enough to know that the market is mispriced. You also need to know the right timing for the corrective movement or you could become insolvent.

[David Smith]

Fill in the blank.

Knowing the market is overvalued that should be just as valuable as knowing the market is undervalued.

When one knows it is undervalued they by equity. When one knows its overvalued they buy______________.

Value is a subjective term. If something has inherent value of $100, is now being bought at $150, and will be bought at $200 before returning to its inherent value of $100 (assuming the efficient market theory), to one with the knowledge that this will be traded at $200, it's simultaneously overvalued and a buy. A decision to buy and sell is as dependant on timing as it is on inherent value. The greater fool is a true concept. The problem is that it's quite difficult to predict.

[ExGingi]

Value is a subjective term. If something has inherent value of $100, is now being bought at $150, and will be bought at $200 before returning to its inherent value of $100 (assuming the efficient market theory), to one with the knowledge that this will be traded at $200, it's simultaneously overvalued and a buy. A decision to buy and sell is as dependant on timing as it is on inherent value. The greater fool is a true concept. The problem is that it's quite difficult to predict.

Don't fool yourself to confuse speculation with value.

[David Smith]

Don't fool yourself to confuse speculation with value.

Would I be fooling myself to say $200 has more value than $150? Do you totally disregard the greater fool as a trading tool?

[ExGingi]

Would I be fooling myself to say $200 has more value than $150? Do you totally disregard the greater fool as a trading tool?

Trading is associated with speculation.

Investing is associated with value.

[David Smith]

Trading is associated with speculation.

Investing is associated with value.

Correct.

אז?

[ExGingi]

Correct.

אז?

Can't use the term "value" in the context of speculation!

Would I be fooling myself to say $200 has more value than $150? Do you totally disregard the greater fool as a trading tool?

[David Smith]

Can't use the term "value" in the context of speculation!

The equity doesn't have value. The knowledge does.

[ADG]

so it fair to say the greater fool applies more in regard to timing of the market rather then value.

[ExGingi]

The equity doesn't have value. The knowledge does.

Knowledge of the future is impossible for humans. It is speculation. It could be well calculated, high odds etc, but it is speculation.

[Boruch999]

Knowledge of the future is impossible for humans. It is speculation. It could be well calculated, high odds etc, but it is speculation.

So is investing in an accounting or law degree.

[ExGingi]

So is investing in an accounting or law degree.

True

סדר זרעים is also called סדר אמונה, because planting a seed expecting it to rot in the ground and grow more than what that kernel is worth in and of itself requires מאמין בחי העולמים וזורע.

[ludmila]

Knowledge of the future is impossible for humans. It is speculation. It could be well calculated, high odds etc, but it is speculation.

Agreed, speculation is about putting the odds in your favor, and if you were wrong get out fast, your first loss is your smallest loss in trading, investing is very different.

[ADG]

anyone bought wall-mart at the beginning of the year?

[ludmila]

anyone bought wall-mart at the beginning of the year?

Not at the beginning of the year, bought in April at $73 ,got out in Nov at $98.

[ElectricCPR]

anyone bought wall-mart at the beginning of the year?

Bought at $78 and hanging in there

[yuneeq]

anyone bought wall-mart at the beginning of the year?

I've been telling people to buy for a while now.
They've been making a huge push in e-commerce but people are too scared to value them like a tech company.

If you just separated the online segment it'd be selling at huge multiples.

[ADG]

I've been telling people to buy for a while now.
They've been making a huge push in e-commerce but people are too scared to value them like a tech company.

If you just separated the online segment it'd be selling at huge multiples.

What do you think about the current price?

[yuneeq]

What do you think about the current price?

I wouldn't buy as investment but for speculation it might be great.
It's all about optics, if people start looking at it as tech it will rise a lot more.

[Boruch999]

A thought:

It appears that there will shortly be BTC futures.  Several here expressed interest in shorting BTC and these futures will be the most obvious way to do it.  There is presumably a lot of pent up shorting interest out there that will take advantage of this new way to short.  That should create a lot of selling pressure and drive BTC down at least on the first day the futures are trading.  Surely there will be future buyers as well, but most buyers have already bought actual BTC where as no short sellers have been able to sell yet.