Stocks

[aygart]

2000 crash, took 16 years to regain capital, 2008-2009 , a massacre that took years for only those who did not panic to regain their huge losses, in the long term we are all dead, it does not always work.

We have already established that facts and numbers are not his strong point.

[ludmila]

We have already established that facts and numbers are not his strong point.

Wrong. Sorry, I do not agree with you about the DOW, which in this case from 2000 also took 8 years to catch up to the 2000 highs.   The Nasdaq and S&P are what counts, on which exchange are AAPL,AMZN,TSLA,AAPL,NFLX,GOOG  etc traded?.  And the SPX represents 500 of Americas largest corporations, who cares about the DOW, it represents 30 stocks, it does not represent the market, only naive investors ask what did the Dow close at? Professionals will be quoting the SPX and NDX.  Just my humble opinion. 

NDX chart 2000-2016   16 years is a lifetime!!
https://www.tradingview.com/x/tIha3Lbg/

[ludmila]

And do not forget the opportunity cost, when you are stuck with loosing positions whether for 16 years or 8 years, that tied up money could have been invested in other profit generating investments.

[aygart]

Wrong. Sorry, I do not agree with you about the DOW, which in this case from 2000 also took 8 years to catch up to the 2000 highs.   The Nasdaq and S&P are what counts, on which exchange are AAPL,AMZN,TSLA,AAPL,NFLX,GOOG  etc traded?.  And the SPX represents 500 of Americas largest corporations, who cares about the DOW, it represents 30 stocks, it does not represent the market, only naive investors ask what did the Dow close at? Professionals will be quoting the SPX and NDX.  Just my humble opinion. 

NDX chart 2000-2016   16 years is a lifetime!!
https://www.tradingview.com/x/tIha3Lbg/

What did I write about DJI vs SPX? I only wrote about vs NSX in 2000 which was way to tech heavy and had a much bigger bubble than either large cap index. Considering the way tech was weighted at the time it was not a native of the broader market at the time. The fact is that DJI has stood the test of time and has been very highly correlated to SPX anyhow. Who care what professionals do? They also use standard deviation to measure volatility over average deviation.

[TBD]

Wrong. Sorry, I do not agree with you about the DOW, which in this case from 2000 also took 8 years to catch up to the 2000 highs.   The Nasdaq and S&P are what counts, on which exchange are AAPL,AMZN,TSLA,AAPL,NFLX,GOOG  etc traded?.  And the SPX represents 500 of Americas largest corporations, who cares about the DOW, it represents 30 stocks, it does not represent the market, only naive investors ask what did the Dow close at? Professionals will be quoting the SPX and NDX.  Just my humble opinion. 

NDX chart 2000-2016   16 years is a lifetime!!
https://www.tradingview.com/x/tIha3Lbg/

The S & P 500 when calculating reinvested Dividends was back by 2006 to the highs before the crash of 2001

[TBD]

And the Nasdaq was defintley not than and even not now a broad market index

[TBD]

And do not forget the opportunity cost, when you are stuck with loosing positions whether for 16 years or 8 years, that tied up money could have been invested in other profit generating investments.

And yes that tied up money could either be invested in other profit generating investments or go down the drain Like Enron, Lehman, Bear Sterns, WM, GM, Chrysler, GE, and the list goes on. So if you wanna take the risk its fully yours, but Warren Buffet doesn't look neither on standard deviations nor average deviations... He studies the 10-Q's and 10-K's with rishoinim and achroinim and studies management he doesnt base his investment decisions on some "PROFESSIONAL" posts on DDF's.

[ludmila]

 You are quoting and following Warren Buffett, good for you if you believe you can use his style, he is not always right as no one is, he lost a fortune trying to trade silver, and also bought oil stocks at the peak, when oil was $140. He is a fundamentalist with unlimited capital and  information available to him that is not available to the public, fundamental information is always already reflected in the price of a stock or commodity,you'll never have an edge by depending on fundamentals alone.   The trader I learned everything I  know from  is different, I was trained by him,he is short term to intermediate term ,Victor Sperandeo, he started with a few thousand and turned it to a billion +$s , all trading his own money,not other people's money, and George Soros gave him Billions of $ to trade for him. Vic was dubbed by Soros as the trader of the century,inducted in the hall of fame, featured in the book Market Wizards and Super traders,WSJ called him the Ultimate Wall Street Pro, it will be worth your time to buy his 3 books and read them , while Buffett was long in 1987, Vic was on CNBC a week before the crash saying he is short up to the limit, and the market will crash.

I am not trying to start an argument, just wanted to explain there are different approaches to investing and trading, each needs to find what works for him.  I trade everything from stocks, forex, commodities,  long and short, I was never an investor, and I do extremely well. If index funds are your cup of tea, great, important is the end result.

[TBD]

You are quoting and following Warren Buffett, good for you if you believe you can use his style, he is not always right as no one is, he lost a fortune trying to trade silver, and also bought oil stocks at the peak, when oil was $140. He is a fundamentalist with unlimited capital and  information available to him that is not available to the public, fundamental information is always already reflected in the price of a stock or commodity,you'll never have an edge by depending on fundamentals alone.   The trader I learned everything I  know from  is different, I was trained by him,he is short term to intermediate term ,Victor Sperandeo, he started with a few thousand and turned it to a billion +$s , all trading his own money,not other people's money, and George Soros gave him Billions of $ to trade for him. Vic was dubbed by Soros as the trader of the century,inducted in the hall of fame, featured in the book Market Wizards and Super traders,WSJ called him the Ultimate Wall Street Pro, it will be worth your time to buy his 3 books and read them , while Buffett was long in 1987, Vic was on CNBC a week before the crash saying he is short up to the limit, and the market will crash.

I am not trying to start an argument, just wanted to explain there are different approaches to investing and trading, each needs to find what works for him.  I trade everything from stocks, forex, commodities,  long and short, I was never an investor, and I do extremely well. If index funds are your cup of tea, great, important is the end result.

Agree that everyone has own approach, as per Victor Sperandeo he doesnt show up on Forbes list so I dont know how much money he is worth but definitley less than 1% of Buffet , Anyway thats not the point. Just when ppl post 9 years into a bull market about how good investments they make it seems to some that the 2007-09 memories are long lost with ppl thinking that its never gonna happen again. So for those that were too young to remember than, just be aware. Everything could happen again

[ludmila]

Yes, everything could and does happen again. People say, this time is different, it never is.

[TBD]

Yes, everything could and does happen again. People say, this time is different, it never is.

+1

[aygart]

Yes, everything could and does happen again. People say, this time is different, it never is.

+1

This is something we can all agree upon. That is why it is important to be accurate and truthful about what happened. I've also needs to be mindful that things will happen that never happened before as well. On occasion things really will be different.

Btw, if you think that measures of volatility are not used as a part of buffet's analysis you are quite mistaken. He may use standard or average deviation or one of a number of other calculations but I guarantee that it is part of his decision process. Probably more so with him than others since he is a proponent of trading short term volatility for long term gains.

[TBD]

This is something we can all agree upon. That is why it is important to be accurate and truthful about what happened. I've also needs to be mindful that things will happen that never happened before as well. On occasion things really will be different.

Btw, if you think that measures of volatility are not used as a part of buffet's analysis you are quite mistaken. He may use standard or average deviation or one of a number of other calculations but I guarantee that it is part of his decision process. Probably more so with him than others since he is a proponent of trading short term volatility for long term gains.

Short term voltality can be used when you buy a few hundred or thousands shares, when invest in chunk of a company with billions of dollars investment you cant use short term volatility as your transactions by itself change the market price, as well when taking whole companies private its not on short term volatility that you make decisions as it is a process that is months in the makings. and as buffet always says that his favorite selling time is "NEVER" its not such a big difference for him the a 10%+- if he looks how much this investment will be worth in 100 years from now

[aygart]

Short term voltality can be used when you buy a few hundred or thousands shares, when invest in chunk of a company with billions of dollars investment you cant use short term volatility as your transactions by itself change the market price, as well when taking whole companies private its not on short term volatility that you make decisions as it is a process that is months in the makings. and as buffet always says that his favorite selling time is "NEVER" its not such a big difference for him the a 10%+- if he looks how much this investment will be worth in 100 years from now

You totally have no clue what I wrote. What you you are describing IS trading short term volatility for long term gains. The concept is a quote from his mentor Benjamin Graham.

[ExGingi]

This is something we can all agree upon. That is why it is important to be accurate and truthful about what happened. I've also needs to be mindful that things will happen that never happened before as well. On occasion things really will be different.

Very well said!

[Ephraimh]

Massive beat by amzn!
Amzn market cap is going to open tomorrow the closest it’s ever been to take away the #1 spot from aapl..
If aapl misses on Tuesday, or even falls flat (as it sure so seems from chip makers last week and from Samsung’s report today) amzn is going to get that spot as easy as, well, Trump opens his Twitter app..

[Ephraimh]

Starting to think though, amzn is making its investors very comfortable with these massive bottom line beats [for the second Q in a row now], what happens if Bezos gets back into his old habit of spending and decides to experiment if ordering a Whole Foods order via Alexa and ship it to Jupiter overnight for example is within his reach, and as a result hurting the bottom line, will investors still give him a pass?

[Deal woman]

Hello all. Great discussions here!
Question: what are the best brokerage  bank deal / incentives given when moving your stock account from one house to the other? I know some give cash incentives for different amounts but it’s hard to find out  what is available.
Thanks!

[Ephraimh]

Not a joke. I went in at $930. When do I take my profits and go home?

Don’t sell!
If you’re really uncomfortable being a hog sell 20% and wait for a dip to buy back, but that dip just came and went last month, there is no reason this shouldn’t rise to $1,800 now, stay the course!

Crossed $1,800.. still holding it?

[Mordyk]

Crossed $1,800.. still holding it?

I would still hold.  I think this new sales tax law will do good for them.  But it ain't my money so don't follow my assumptions