Author Topic: Stocks  (Read 450428 times)

Offline cgr

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3900 on: March 02, 2020, 08:25:56 PM »
Schwab. Fidelity. E*Trade.
Ameritrade as well. It's for stocks, options, and ETFs.

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3901 on: March 02, 2020, 09:27:21 PM »
Ameritrade as well. It's for stocks, options, and ETFs.
TD Ameritrade charges for OTC trades. In a few months they merge with Schwab for the best of both worlds (Think or Swim is an excellent platform).
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline ExGingi

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3902 on: March 03, 2020, 11:41:33 AM »
Yep the whole team there is superb. Cool-headed and sharp, every single one of them.
Ignore Rosie at your own risk:




Quote
Agree on the cash point as a whole, but to compare this to 2008 -which means keep on selling now because this downtrend is only getting started- is wrong, the time to sell to accumulate dry powder was a month ago, not now, now is a time to buy.

Yet he also thought the Fed should cut (as they did) despite the fact that there's only that much that a cut can do with this kind of shock.


I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline Ephraimh

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Stocks
« Reply #3903 on: March 03, 2020, 12:50:25 PM »
Ignore Rosie at your own risk:




Yet he also thought the Fed should cut (as they did) despite the fact that there's only that much that a cut can do with this kind of shock.

Our discussion was if this is 2008 or not. It’s not.

I agree to all of David Rosenberg’s points.

There is a difference though, between a downturn that takes 2 years to recover and a downturn that takes 2 months to recover, I think that what’s happening now falls into the latter camp, even if the downturn deepens.

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3904 on: March 03, 2020, 01:36:11 PM »
Our discussion was if this is 2008 or not. It’s not.

I agree to all of David Rosenberg’s points.

There is a difference though, between a downturn that takes 2 years to recover and a downturn that takes 2 months to recover, I think that what’s happening now falls into the latter camp, even if the downturn deepens.

It is definitely not. It's very different. Possibly worse. 2008 was related to toxic financial assets. The implosion was predictable, it was just a matter of timing. It was also a matter of how widespread the effects are. But the malaise was clearly defined.

The COVID-19 (or whatever we call it) pandemic is an exogenous total surprise. It isn't the freezing of finances and credit, it is the freezing of ACTUAL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AND PRODUCTION. Furthermore, there is still so much that is unknown about it. It is potentially much more damaging than what we saw in 2008.

Back in 2008 there were those who were advocating no Fed action, allowing for creative destruction to clear the system through tremendous short-lived pain. The power that be chose to avoid the real pain and kick the can down the road. Yes, certain institutions that might have been deemed insolvent if forced to mark-to-market were saved, and the banking world is more stable now, but it all came at a cost that will have to be paid at some point. It was a financial problem caused by toxic financial assets and "solved" with financial tools.

The current events don't stem from financial toxic assets, but from real-world dangers that don't discriminate based on wealth or liquidity. The effects of the supply chain are very real. And there is no end or solution in sight (are you following the DDF COVID-19 thread?)

So when the Fed fired their first round of artillery this morning, markets weren't sure what to make of it, first up, then down, then up again. Bottom line seems to be that any upside is based on speculation of Fed easing (first by dropping short term rates, and then by bringing in the heavy artillery, probably some kind of a new economic atomic bomb the likes of which haven't been seen before). However what can any of this do if factories and schools are shut (or operating at significantly reduced levels). If global freight transport is down. If global travel is down, and none of those due to lack of liquidity or cash?


ETA: Just saw the following Tweet. Look at it and the replies.


« Last Edit: March 03, 2020, 04:27:17 PM by ExGingi »
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Offline ExGingi

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3905 on: March 03, 2020, 06:37:21 PM »


Didn't trust Bloomberg.com to keep the headline without changing it, so I decided to post an image. Gotta love the "Bazooka misfires" line.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline ExGingi

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3906 on: March 03, 2020, 09:46:40 PM »
Our discussion was if this is 2008 or not. It’s not.

I agree to all of David Rosenberg’s points.

There is a difference though, between a downturn that takes 2 years to recover and a downturn that takes 2 months to recover, I think that what’s happening now falls into the latter camp, even if the downturn deepens.

I just went out to the real world, and indeed this is not 2008.

I can't recall seeing Costco like I saw it this evening. I think people have images of the empty streets of Wuhan and fear it coming to a street next door right here.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline ExGingi

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3907 on: March 03, 2020, 11:37:40 PM »
And then there's this from Jim Bianco saying that last week likely represent a shift from bull market to bear market.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-03/coronavirus-emergency-federal-reserve-rate-cut-only-goes-so-far
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline dealfinder11

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Offline as2

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3909 on: March 04, 2020, 11:03:01 AM »
Happy to be on the INO train right now.
Memories last forever, make them while you can.

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3910 on: March 04, 2020, 11:34:05 AM »
Happy to be on the INO train right now.

Been there for several years now. All but given up on it. Now getting close to break even.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline as2

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3911 on: March 04, 2020, 11:42:49 AM »
Been there for several years now. All but given up on it. Now getting close to break even.
When did you buy? 2016?

Memories last forever, make them while you can.

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3912 on: March 04, 2020, 11:49:46 AM »
When did you buy? 2016?

I'll have to look it up. It was rolled over so I don't have the original purchase date on my current account.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline as2

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3913 on: March 04, 2020, 12:27:49 PM »
I'll have to look it up. It was rolled over so I don't have the original purchase date on my current account.
If you're only breaking even now, and you weren't trading options, you likely bought in  '15 or '16
Memories last forever, make them while you can.

Offline Sam Finkelstein

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3914 on: March 04, 2020, 04:14:23 PM »
Dow is up 1173 today. Let’s see what happens tomorrow. All I can say is that last week’s lesson was to ease up on the greed.
Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil. –J. Paul Getty

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