Stocks

[PlatinumGuy]

The only logical conclusion I can derive from that is to buy Gold (and possibly - gasp - Bitcoin)

Gold is down lately. Inflation can hit gold too. There's no guarantee the value of gold relative to food/housing will stay stable or at the same ratio as the market, so it's quite foreseeable housing/schooling (or whatever goods matter to you) price will rise along with market valuations but not gold.

Bitcoin is a farce. Its use outside of speculation is extremely rare, and governments will never allow it to go mainstream. Gold perception is a carryover from historic times as a primary use currency.

You mentioned fundamentals many times. BitCoin has absolutely none, and gold too for that matter. The market is at most mistakenly pricing the value & likelihood of future profits, but the fundamentals are solidly there...

[613Ari]

What do you guys think about buying in the airlines or cruises?





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[PlatinumGuy]

What do you guys think about buying in the airlines or cruises?





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I think the prevailing opinion within the professional medical community is that we are still at the early stage of the Coronavirus epidemic, so unless there is an unpredictable variable (vaccine/med), we will see another dip in these stocks within the next year.

[613Ari]

Most stocks are back bh back at what they were before, or higher, I think the airline industry will go up now that ppl to start flying and traveling again will shoot back up to it was before, now it's at half.

[PlatinumGuy]

Most stocks are back bh back at what they were before, or higher, I think the airline industry will go up now that ppl to start flying and traveling again will shoot back up to it was before, now it's at half.

...unless the virus gets worse (Iran, Florida)

[613Ari]

Bh, the virus is pretty much gone, how many people do you know that caught virus in the last four-five weeks?
Life is (resuming to) normal in boro park and Williamsburg like it was pre Corona.
and I think if no one else gets it in the next 3-4 weeks it should be completely gone. Bez"h

[gozalim]

Bh, the virus is pretty much gone, how many people do you know that caught virus in the last four-five weeks?
Life is (resuming to) normal in boro park and Williamsburg like it was pre Corona.

after all, aren't they the whole world?
these 2 communities alone will feed the entire airline and cruise industries!
/s

[PlatinumGuy]

Bh, the virus is pretty much gone, how many people do you know that caught virus in the last four-five weeks?
Life is (resuming to) normal in boro park and Williamsburg like it was pre Corona.
and I think if no one else gets it in the next 3-4 weeks it should be completely gone. Bez"h


 

If you're convinced of that, you should definitely be buying airline stocks (may as well short the vaccine companies too), but going back full circle

I think the prevailing opinion within the professional medical community is that we are still at the early stage of the Coronavirus epidemic, so unless there is an unpredictable variable (vaccine/med), we will see another dip in these stocks within the next year.

I am tuning out of this argument before we go off topic, but just remember George Soro's timeless advice - it doesn't matter if you're right or wrong, the only thing that makes a difference is how big you bet on it. 

[ExGingi]

Gold is down lately. Inflation can hit gold too. There's no guarantee the value of gold relative to food/housing will stay stable or at the same ratio as the market, so it's quite foreseeable housing/schooling (or whatever goods matter to you) price will rise along with market valuations but not gold.

Bitcoin is a farce. Its use outside of speculation is extremely rare, and governments will never allow it to go mainstream. Gold perception is a carryover from historic times as a primary use currency.

You mentioned fundamentals many times. BitCoin has absolutely none, and gold too for that matter.

Who mentioned inflation? I don't think of gold (currently) as an inflation hedge. Gold gets its value from its scarcity. Unlike fiat currencies, gold cannot be printed in order to monetize inherent problems. No government can control it. Sure there could be huge temporary gyrations, but how can you argue against it as a store of value. (And unlike times in history, gold isn't very useful as a transaction currency).

A similar argument goes for Bitcoin, it looked as a scarce store of value that no one can control. While you are right that governments can, have and will fight it, they have done the same to gold in the past.

Those are the only fundamentals that exist and matter for gold (and Bitcoin) they cannot be created out of thin air. Contrast that with any paper asset (be it stocks, bonds, fiat currency, etc).

The market is at most mistakenly pricing the value & likelihood of future profits, but the fundamentals are solidly there...

Ahem. Would you care to share with me what are those "fundamentals that are solidly there"?

[Baglach]

Bh, the virus is pretty much gone, how many people do you know that caught virus in the last four-five weeks?
Life is (resuming to) normal in boro park and Williamsburg like it was pre Corona.
and I think if no one else gets it in the next 3-4 weeks it should be completely gone. Bez"h

That statement is delusional at best, numbers are still spiking worldwide, and after thousands protesting together it may very well be another “crisis” in a few weeks. The market is definitely reacting on the future right now (I.e. aaple is on record high and 54m Americans are in need of food bank.) time will tell....

[PlatinumGuy]

Who mentioned inflation? I don't think of gold (currently) as an inflation hedge. Gold gets its value from its scarcity. Unlike fiat currencies, gold cannot be printed in order to monetize inherent problems. No government can control it. Sure there could be huge temporary gyrations, but how can you argue against it as a store of value.

Buying something as a store of value is a hedge against inflation or deflation.

Scarcity is only as valuable as demand. There is little use for gold, and almost none for bitcoin, so there isn't any guarantee it will continue to store value. I'm not saying there is considerable risk of gold dropping in USD terms, but if the value of the USD changes (relative to housing/school/food), there is no guarantee the value of gold will change in tandem.

"fundamentals that are solidly there"?

Ability to generate profits, at least for most of the market

[ExGingi]

Buying something as a store of value is a hedge against inflation or deflation.

How about a hedge against money printing (which could occur even without inflation, if the velocity of money is dropping).

Scarcity is only as valuable as demand. There is little use for gold, and almost none for bitcoin, so there isn't any guarantee it will continue to store value.

The use for gold (and Bitcoin) IS as a store of value that cannot be manipulated.

Would you care to share with me what are those "fundamentals that are solidly there"?

Ability to generate profits, at least for most of the market

And what price would one be willing to pay for said "Ability to generate profits"?

[PlatinumGuy]

How about a hedge against money printing (which could occur even without inflation, if the velocity of money is dropping).

What damage does money printing do other than inflation?

And what price would one be willing to pay for said "Ability to generate profits"?

The market is at most mistakenly pricing the value & likelihood of future profits, but the fundamentals are solidly there...

[ExGingi]

What damage does money printing do other than inflation?

Start here:

https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2014/september/what-does-money-velocity-tell-us-about-low-inflation-in-the-us

Now that one has a better understanding of inflation, and realizes that increasing money supply doesn't necessarily generate inflation. Yet at the same time, the fact is that money supply has increased, so in comparison to a scarce commodity, I would assume that said commodity will be nominally worth more of said currency (as long as the demand for the commodity is there).

To be clear, if they thought that printing money does damage they wouldn't do it. Zimbabwe has been down that path in recent history.

[aygart]

Why are you say in it's a mistake. If time to spend PPP was extended to 24 weeks, it's not a mistake. You are thinking 8/52 for self-employed. But if a small business has payroll and is paying employees, now they are given 24 weeks to spend it. So for the median employee making 34k/yr 24 weeks is $15,692.

Your (his) math is off.
Businesses were given 24 weeks to spend around 10 weeks of payroll.

[Abey]

Cramer is 100% right here. 'Where are the sellers?' Cramer worries about market getting ahead of economy https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/cramer-worries-about-stock-market-getting-too-far-ahead-of-the-economy.html?

[Joeymc]

Any thoughts on CHK?

It's basically at it's lowest ever, is it worth buying for $8?

Chesapeake Energy): Shares of oil and gas producer Chesapeake Energy have already lost 99.7% of their value over the last 10 years. Now, the warning sirens are howling that even the remaining 0.3% is likely to vanish.
On May 8, Chesapeake filed a notice with the SEC that it intends to prepay $25 million in variable compensation amounts (that is, performance-based bonuses) to 21 top executives and vice presidents. Handing out cash to upper management often immediately precedes a bankruptcy filing: Whiting Petroleum and Diamond Offshore Drilling doled out similar awards before their own Chapter 11 filings in April.
If that's not enough, in an SEC filing on Monday, Chesapeake warned that "management has concluded that there is substantial doubt about the Company's ability to continue as a going concern" due to "the likelihood of a restructuring or reorganization." In the same filing, it admitted that it had hired consultants to explore its options, including bankruptcy.
There's not much more the company could do to indicate an impending bankruptcy besides officially filing for it, and you don't want to be holding shares when that happens. I can't imagine a worse time to buy.

Hmm

[Joeymc]

and you don't want to be holding shares when that happens.

Besides losing what you paid for the shares, what else can happen if you are holding shares when a company goes bankrupt?

[coffeebean]

Hmm

Who bought?

[Joeymc]

Who bought?

I wish