Author Topic: Stocks  (Read 585927 times)

Offline davidrotts63

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4820 on: August 23, 2020, 04:23:47 PM »
The market's tanking will have to be postponed somewhat..
Historically you're wrong. Markets usually sell off a few days after an election regardless.
(Quit) pulling out the flowers, and watering the weeds. -Peter Lynch

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4821 on: August 23, 2020, 04:26:02 PM »
Historically you're wrong. Markets usually sell off a few days after an election regardless.

How about when the results are totally unexpected? For example BREXIT.

I'm not going to take any position one way or the other on the subject, just raising points to consider.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline davidrotts63

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4822 on: August 23, 2020, 04:29:14 PM »
Many stocks are still down quite a bit from before COVID.
The majority....
How is the market ex FANGAM doing?

Whatever is happening with TSLA, AAPL, AMZN et al is not sustainable and is not indicative of a healthy market. That being said, I read from quite a few expert traders that this market might have another leg or two up. At some point it will have to come down from the stratosphere, but for now it seems to be mostly going up. Obviously Nov. 3 could swing it.
we're in a tech boom now, which is holding up the market, despite the lagging remaining sectors, once those start their healthy non V-shaped recovery, there is so much more room for growth even without FAANG doing this. And yes, Tesla will forever be short squeezing, the shorts punished themselves, and that's the way it'll be.


(Quit) pulling out the flowers, and watering the weeds. -Peter Lynch

Offline davidrotts63

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4823 on: August 23, 2020, 04:30:50 PM »
How about when the results are totally unexpected? For example BREXIT.

I'm not going to take any position one way or the other on the subject, just raising points to consider.
2-3 days of hype? A week or 2 maybe, but not continues extending upwards.
(Quit) pulling out the flowers, and watering the weeds. -Peter Lynch

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4824 on: August 23, 2020, 04:39:41 PM »
2-3 days of hype? A week or 2 maybe, but not continues extending upwards.

Do you know how much money can be made (or lost) in 2-3 days, let alone a week? Look as TSLA, AAPL, just to name a few extremes.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4825 on: August 23, 2020, 04:49:03 PM »
Does anyone know offhand (I'll do the research if not)- has the market ever gone into correction territory as a result of US presidential election results?

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4826 on: August 23, 2020, 05:17:27 PM »
Does anyone know offhand (I'll do the research if not)- has the market ever gone into correction territory as a result of US presidential election results?

As a result?

Correction is a result of distortion. Anything could trigger a correction. I don't know if we ever had a market like this.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4827 on: August 23, 2020, 05:30:11 PM »
As a result?

Correction is a result of distortion. Anything could trigger a correction. I don't know if we ever had a market like this.

To rephrase my question did the market ever bet so heavily on one result and then reality proved otherwise as to cause a huge drop, as it relates to the US presidential election.

Based on my limited research so far the answer seems to be no.

Offline Mordyk

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4828 on: August 23, 2020, 05:52:55 PM »
If you had $1MM where would you put it now?
I honestly would keep it cash.  I'm so confused at this point.
#TYH

Offline Joe4007

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4829 on: August 23, 2020, 06:09:16 PM »
I honestly would keep it cash.  I'm so confused at this point.
What if you thought we were heading into an inflationary period?

Offline Mordyk

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4830 on: August 23, 2020, 06:10:42 PM »
What if you thought we were heading into an inflationary period?
I'm honestly not familiar.  I finally acknowledged that I don't understand the market on my own.  I can just share my novice observations regarding the situation
#TYH

Offline Joe4007

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4831 on: August 23, 2020, 06:12:15 PM »
I'm honestly not familiar.  I finally acknowledged that I don't understand the market on my own.  I can just share my novice observations regarding the situation
What I'm trying to say is that some believe the market is up because there simply aren't better alternatives.

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4832 on: August 23, 2020, 06:24:01 PM »
What I'm trying to say is that some believe the market is up because there simply aren't better alternatives.

Where's that head scratch GIF?

There aren't better alternatives than paying exorbitant prices for companies with serious questions about their finances (and other issues) such as TSLA?

Let's be clear, a share of stock in a public company is a claim on its future earnings. If I knew that my share of company X would earn Y over whatever time period I would care about, I would then discount that future earnings stream by an safe interest rate and arrive at the price I'm willing to pay for it in cash today. I would then factor in what I would see as potential future earnings growth and allow for that into the equation, I would also discount for risks. That's how one values what a share of a company is worth for them.

Traders don't care much about the value of the company, they care about where they see the market price of the share going within the timeframe they care about. This is a rather unique feature of paper assets which are publicly traded, where the price can change every second (or less) and is publicly available.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline Joe4007

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4833 on: August 23, 2020, 07:23:19 PM »
Where's that head scratch GIF?

There aren't better alternatives than paying exorbitant prices for companies with serious questions about their finances (and other issues) such as TSLA?

Let's be clear, a share of stock in a public company is a claim on its future earnings. If I knew that my share of company X would earn Y over whatever time period I would care about, I would then discount that future earnings stream by an safe interest rate and arrive at the price I'm willing to pay for it in cash today. I would then factor in what I would see as potential future earnings growth and allow for that into the equation, I would also discount for risks. That's how one values what a share of a company is worth for them.

Traders don't care much about the value of the company, they care about where they see the market price of the share going within the timeframe they care about. This is a rather unique feature of paper assets which are publicly traded, where the price can change every second (or less) and is publicly available.
I'm not talking about TSLA, but the market in general.

In a world where real bond returns are negative and inflation may very well make a comeback perhaps the relatively high valuation of equities don't look so bad.

Offline aygart

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4834 on: August 23, 2020, 07:32:45 PM »
How about when the results are totally unexpected? For example 2016.


FTFY
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline aygart

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4835 on: August 23, 2020, 07:33:22 PM »
Does anyone know offhand (I'll do the research if not)- has the market ever gone into correction territory as a result of US presidential election results?
How many elections had surprise results?
Feelings don't care about your facts

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4836 on: August 23, 2020, 08:24:07 PM »
How many elections had surprise results?

Good point. That might be the question to ask although I doubt the answer is never, which does seems to be the case for a correction following a presidential election.

Offline aygart

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4837 on: August 23, 2020, 08:27:13 PM »
Good point. That might be the question to ask although I doubt the answer is never, which does seems to be the case for a correction following a presidential election.
Definitely not never. 2016 was a surprise but it made the market move up.
Feelings don't care about your facts

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4838 on: August 23, 2020, 08:56:39 PM »
Definitely not never. 2016 was a surprise but it made the market move up.

As might 2020 be. A Biden win is already baked in IMHO.
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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4839 on: August 23, 2020, 09:06:41 PM »
Definitely not never. 2016 was a surprise but it made the market move up.
Futures were actually down 5% in premarket trading and it triggered a circuit breaker, but then by the time the day was out it was up 1% so...

By surprise I mean a no-chance candidate vs a strong incumbent, and then an upset. That's not the case here anyway so I'd say the market is factoring in for it go either way.