Author Topic: Stocks  (Read 604423 times)

Offline Lurker

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #5860 on: June 29, 2021, 09:25:07 AM »
I'd have to disagree

Maybe a good gambling opportunity  ???

If it gets delayed and the stock plummets even further, why wouldn't you some exposure? At a very low cost with very high upside, it seems like a no brainer to me. Especially since the odds of approval go up with an extension. IINM, the fear of additional testing taking years is if it gets rejected and they have to start over. An extension would allow them to clarify (or build on) the existing studies.
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Offline yos9694

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #5861 on: June 29, 2021, 09:50:57 AM »
If it gets delayed and the stock plummets even further, why wouldn't you some exposure? At a very low cost with very high upside, it seems like a no brainer to me. Especially since the odds of approval go up with an extension. IINM, the fear of additional testing taking years is if it gets rejected and they have to start over. An extension would allow them to clarify (or build on) the existing studies.

That's why I'd want to be out before the event date, and I'd be willing to get back in if sellers overreact. This drug has a shot and I'd be willing to hang tight during an extension for the upside. But it doesn't make sense to me to hold on to a basis in the $10-$14 range if this thing could be sitting at <$5 for an extended period of time before coming back.

Selling before the event date only risks missing out on a spike up if all goes well, and my gut feeling is waiting for a hyped up date is almost always a mistake (and often a PnD). There's no reason the FDA has to wait until 7/7, they could approve this at any time - so if it's still silent in the final countdown I'm not hanging around for the buzzer.

Offline Lurker

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #5862 on: June 29, 2021, 09:56:54 AM »
That's why I'd want to be out before the event date, and I'd be willing to get back in if sellers overreact. This drug has a shot and I'd be willing to hang tight during an extension for the upside. But it doesn't make sense to me to hold on to a basis in the $10-$14 range if this thing could be sitting at <$5 for an extended period of time before coming back.

Selling before the event date only risks missing out on a spike up if all goes well, and my gut feeling is waiting for a hyped up date is almost always a mistake (and often a PnD). There's no reason the FDA has to wait until 7/7, they could approve this at any time - so if it's still silent in the final countdown I'm not hanging around for the buzzer.

My personal approach is likely to be a hybrid. Sell some to minimize risk and to reinvest if the opportunity arises, and keep some to stay in the game in case of approval or positive market reaction to an extension.
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Offline gozalim

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #5863 on: June 29, 2021, 02:37:28 PM »
My personal approach is likely to be a hybrid. Sell some to minimize risk and to reinvest if the opportunity arises, and keep some to stay in the game in case of approval or positive market reaction to an extension.
especially with calls (vs actual stocks) where you don't have any of the actual positive exposure long term

Offline Lurker

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #5864 on: June 29, 2021, 02:41:35 PM »
especially with calls (vs actual stocks) where you don't have any of the actual positive exposure long term

Yes, but I don't think I'd approach it much differently holding actual shares. The risk calculation would have the most of the same elements.
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Offline yos9694

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #5865 on: June 29, 2021, 04:52:08 PM »
especially with calls (vs actual stocks) where you don't have any of the actual positive exposure long term

The IV has been insanely high for this stock, making options unattractive to my taste.

Offline madhocker

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #5866 on: July 01, 2021, 03:31:18 PM »
My personal approach is likely to be a hybrid. Sell some to minimize risk and to reinvest if the opportunity arises, and keep some to stay in the game in case of approval or positive market reaction to an extension.
or you can purchase protective puts to protect against a major collapse on the decision. July 10p currently priced @1.25 (makes sense for me as I got in around 10)

Offline Mordyk

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #5867 on: July 02, 2021, 09:14:32 AM »
Any new interesting stock tips?
#TYH

Offline madhocker

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #5868 on: July 06, 2021, 08:59:15 AM »
Looks like ccxi jumped the gun and is requesting more time to present more data. Don't know if that is positive news or not, but it is trading sharply higher in the pre market

Offline Lurker

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #5869 on: July 06, 2021, 09:10:08 AM »
Looks like ccxi jumped the gun and is requesting more time to present more data.

Link?

ETA: found it. https://ir.chemocentryx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/chemocentryx-announces-filing-amendment-nda-submission-and

New target date is Oct 7.
« Last Edit: July 06, 2021, 09:14:24 AM by Lurker »
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Online Shmulie

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #5870 on: July 06, 2021, 09:32:18 AM »
Looks like ccxi jumped the gun and is requesting more time to present more data. Don't know if that is positive news or not, but it is trading sharply higher in the pre market

I feel like that's a good sign, they are preemptively getting more data to give it a better chance of getting approved

It really messes up some people with options that were expecting a decision

Offline gozalim

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #5871 on: July 06, 2021, 09:44:45 AM »
It really messes up some people with options that were expecting a decision
or hoped to sell off today in advance if a decision

Offline Lurker

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #5872 on: July 06, 2021, 09:51:42 AM »
It really messes up some people with options that were expecting a decision
or hoped to sell off today in advance if a decision

Wiped out July calls.
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Offline gozalim

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #5873 on: July 06, 2021, 09:54:08 AM »
Wiped out July calls.
August not too helpful either

Offline madhocker

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #5874 on: July 06, 2021, 04:11:28 PM »
Wiped out July calls.
I believe it's July 9th (7th?). I bought Nov 21 and Jan 22.
The options you bought did not get wiped at all....

Offline Lurker

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #5875 on: July 06, 2021, 04:13:42 PM »
The options you bought did not suffer today...

BH, those didn't. Sometime between then and now, I also bought July calls (against my gut feeling at the time). G-d gives and G-d takes.
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Offline Abey

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #5876 on: July 07, 2021, 01:31:52 PM »

Online ExGingi

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #5877 on: July 07, 2021, 01:44:52 PM »
Someone on here asked why not to buy Chinese companies, here why. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/07/china-is-cracking-down-on-stocks-that-trade-on-us-exchanges-what-it-means-if-you-hold-them.html?

Isn't the DIDI fiasco enough of a reason?

Not to say anyone shouldn't buy stock in Chinese companies, but one can never lose sight of the added risk in the fact that they are subject to the whims of a totalitarian regime.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline madhocker

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #5878 on: July 11, 2021, 09:54:05 AM »
BH, those didn't. Sometime between then and now, I also bought July calls (against my gut feeling at the time). G-d gives and G-d takes.
and G-d gives back....

Best trade of the year for me so far- up more than 60% from the 10 range. No reason not to just hold now and hope for the best going into the October meeting

Offline Danlover111

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #5879 on: July 16, 2021, 08:21:46 AM »
What is the Best Options Trading Service?