Author Topic: Stocks  (Read 751980 times)

Offline AsherO

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #6340 on: November 16, 2021, 03:52:23 PM »
This market has the potential to blow up far bigger than the Dotcom bubble when you has profitable companies with revenue but highly overvalued Well today you have companies with huge Valuations and not even a minimum viable product. I donít know if I donít know when but just a thought

The dotcom companies were profitable?

Does the total auto market support such high valuation?

It's certainly not consistent with Tesla having 1/20th of Toyota's production but 4x Toyota's valuation. Granted they have better gross margins, but not 4x better.

Offline Shmulie

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #6341 on: November 16, 2021, 03:58:14 PM »
High valuation Actually gives them the cash to scale production which Tesla did not have

I agree that's a major advantage.
I think if they were smart they would load up on money right now

Offline yos9694

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #6342 on: November 16, 2021, 04:05:41 PM »
The dotcom companies were profitable?

There were dotcom companies that only existed to the extent that they were paying the electric bill, but were valued in the 10s of millions. No physical products, no real physical presence, very little financial reporting/oversight. These days it's not quite the same

Offline AsherO

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #6343 on: November 16, 2021, 04:07:05 PM »
There were dotcom companies that only existed to the extent that they were paying the electric bill, but were valued in the 10s of millions. No physical products, no real physical presence, very little financial reporting/oversight. These days it's not quite the same

!00%, it sounded to me like Abey was suggesting they were (all?) profitable.

Offline yos9694

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #6344 on: November 16, 2021, 04:15:35 PM »
!00%, it sounded to me like Abey was suggesting they were (all?) profitable.

Maybe they were... after all, it's not hard to appear profitable when financial reporting guidelines let you do whatever you want

Offline Abey

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #6345 on: November 16, 2021, 04:22:43 PM »
!00%, it sounded to me like Abey was suggesting they were (all?) profitable.
Amazon, EBay and even pets.com and others had revenue and growing sales. Donít confuse revenue to profitability! Uber is not profitable yet many are comfortable with its valuation. These companies have 0 revenues and 0 history on how revenue is growing vs cash burn.
The dotcom companies were profitable?

It's certainly not consistent with Tesla having 1/20th of Toyota's production but 4x Toyota's valuation. Granted they have better gross margins, but not 4x better.
How much is Toyota production growing vs Tesla? How much market share do you think Toyota will have in the new Auto market ? Think Amazon vs Macyís in early 2000,s and this is what itís investors are betting on not current revenue on a company growing to full scale

Offline aygart

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #6346 on: November 16, 2021, 04:30:41 PM »
There were dotcom companies that only existed to the extent that they were paying the electric bill, but were valued in the 10s of millions. No physical products, no real physical presence, very little financial reporting/oversight. These days it's not quite the same
They paid electric bills?
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #6347 on: November 16, 2021, 04:38:53 PM »
How much is Toyota production growing vs Tesla? How much market share do you think Toyota will have in the new Auto market ? Think Amazon vs Macyís in early 2000,s and this is what itís investors are betting on not current revenue on a company growing to full scale
Toyota is mature with a much larger marketshare. Growing from small numbers by huge percentages isn't like growing from huge numbers.

Toyota is ahead of everyone else with Fuel Cell (which I actually believe might end up being the future energy for cars). They were ahead of many with hybrids.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline AsherO

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #6348 on: November 16, 2021, 04:48:07 PM »
Donít confuse revenue to profitability!

You're the one who used the term profitable. Easy of you to pick the few that actually had hopes. There were tons that nobody remembers unless they made and/or lost a fortune on them.

How much is Toyota production growing vs Tesla? How much market share do you think Toyota will have in the new Auto market ? Think Amazon vs Macyís in early 2000,s and this is what itís investors are betting on not current revenue on a company growing to full scale

It's clear what investors are betting on, but how does it pan out? The EV market will saturate/gradually displacing ICE vehicles, and Tesla will have a piece of that pie. but at what point will P/E normalize compared to the rest of the industry?

Offline AsherO

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #6349 on: November 16, 2021, 04:49:16 PM »
Toyota is ahead of everyone else with Fuel Cell (which I actually believe might end up being the future energy for cars).

Fuel cell is really interesting but progress has been slow and it's far from mature compared to fully-EV.

Offline Abey

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #6350 on: November 16, 2021, 05:13:47 PM »
You're the one who used the term profitable. Easy of you to pick the few that actually had hopes. There were tons that nobody remembers unless they made and/or lost a fortune on them.

It's clear what investors are betting on, but how does it pan out? The EV market will saturate/gradually displacing ICE vehicles, and Tesla will have a piece of that pie. but at what point will P/E normalize compared to the rest of the industry?
Looking back at my posts and indeed used the word profit, sorry I meant revenue/sales. P/E will take yearsÖand this is a new industry so comparing it the old is like comparing sears and JCPenney to the online retail of today.
Toyota is mature with a much larger marketshare. Growing from small numbers by huge percentages isn't like growing from huge numbers.

Toyota is ahead of everyone else with Fuel Cell (which I actually believe might end up being the future energy for cars). They were ahead of many with hybrids.
Toyota Prius is a boring nerdy car, the thrill of driving a Tesla is what these companies canít produce, itís a culture

Offline aygart

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #6351 on: November 16, 2021, 05:19:12 PM »


Toyota Prius is a boring nerdy car, the thrill of driving a Tesla is what these companies canít produce, itís a culture
Congratulations, you have just described a fad.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline avromie7

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #6352 on: November 16, 2021, 06:39:29 PM »
Toyota is ahead of everyone else with Fuel Cell (which I actually believe might end up being the future energy for cars). They were ahead of many with hybrids.
Why would anyone want fuel cell cars if they're worse than EVs in every way with the exception of fueling time, but even that is not bad considering that you can start your day from home with a full charge every single day and charging times are improving.
It's clear what investors are betting on, but how does it pan out? The EV market will saturate/gradually displacing ICE vehicles, and Tesla will have a piece of that pie. but at what point will P/E normalize compared to the rest of the industry?
Tesla stock generally sells at up to 100x next years earnings. At the rate they're growing and will continue growing they can easily go from 100x next years earnings to a PE ratio of 50 in 2 years (1 year to turn it into a PE ratio of 100 and another year to double earnings)
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline yuneeq

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #6353 on: November 16, 2021, 07:11:21 PM »
Congratulations, you have just described a fad.

Fads doesnít explain the growing and everlasting hype people have for Tesla. Tesla is more like the Apple of cars.
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Offline drosenberg88429

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #6354 on: November 16, 2021, 07:20:06 PM »
Looking back at my posts and indeed used the word profit, sorry I meant revenue/sales. P/E will take yearsÖand this is a new industry so comparing it the old is like comparing sears and JCPenney to the online retail of today.

Toyota Prius is a boring nerdy car, the thrill of driving a Tesla is what these companies canít produce, itís a culture

Toyota isn't selling just the Prius. They're selling hybrid versions of just about every car they sell. Yes, they aren't thrilling sports cars for the most part, but they're the most reliable and best selling vehicles in America for decades. Unseating that when the value preposition is hard to compete with is quite a challenge.

Tesla, honestly, has exceeded my wildest dreams in terms of the amount of vehicles that they've successfully delivered, and the insatiable demand they continue to generate (whether or not they've been operating in the red if not for carbon credit sales). I still think that justifying the PE will be an absolutely Herculean feat, but it is a dangerous company to bet against.

It is hard to argue with the fact that Musk is a bit of a cult leader. Nothing wrong with that. There were times that Tesla would be considered a worthless company without him. I don't think that's true anymore. Tesla is a real company by now, overvalued or not, and a serious force to be reckoned with. (People have actually said the same about Jobs and Apple, and the actual results were just the opposite.)

Offline yos9694

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #6355 on: November 16, 2021, 07:24:55 PM »
Tesla would never have been as successful if not for their extensive charging network. They eliminated range anxiety as a dealbreaker, otherwise no matter how cool their product would have been fringe.

Which other ev maker is matching that? Relying on the biden network is not a winning proposition

Offline avromie7

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #6356 on: November 16, 2021, 07:27:22 PM »
Toyota isn't selling just the Prius. They're selling hybrid versions of just about every car they sell. Yes, they aren't thrilling sports cars for the most part, but they're the most reliable and best selling vehicles in America for decades. Unseating that when the value preposition is hard to compete with is quite a challenge.

Tesla, honestly, has exceeded my wildest dreams in terms of the amount of vehicles that they've successfully delivered, and the insatiable demand they continue to generate (whether or not they've been operating in the red if not for carbon credit sales). I still think that justifying the PE will be an absolutely Herculean feat, but it is a dangerous company to bet against.

It is hard to argue with the fact that Musk is a bit of a cult leader. Nothing wrong with that. There were times that Tesla would be considered a worthless company without him. I don't think that's true anymore. Tesla is a real company by now, overvalued or not, and a serious force to be reckoned with. (People have actually said the same about Jobs and Apple, and the actual results were just the opposite.)
Regulatory credits account for only a fraction of their profits.

Tesla would never have been as successful if not for their extensive charging network. They eliminated range anxiety as a dealbreaker, otherwise no matter how cool their product would have been fringe.

Which other ev maker is matching that? Relying on the biden network is not a winning proposition
Relying on Tesla can be a winning proposition.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline Abey

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #6357 on: November 16, 2021, 11:22:30 PM »
Congratulations, you have just described a fad.
Or the future of Automotive mobility  ;)
Toyota isn't selling just the Prius. They're selling hybrid versions of just about every car they sell. Yes, they aren't thrilling sports cars for the most part, but they're the most reliable and best selling vehicles in America for decades. Unseating that when the value preposition is hard to compete with is quite a challenge.

Tesla, honestly, has exceeded my wildest dreams in terms of the amount of vehicles that they've successfully delivered, and the insatiable demand they continue to generate (whether or not they've been operating in the red if not for carbon credit sales). I still think that justifying the PE will be an absolutely Herculean feat, but it is a dangerous company to bet against.

It is hard to argue with the fact that Musk is a bit of a cult leader. Nothing wrong with that. There were times that Tesla would be considered a worthless company without him. I don't think that's true anymore. Tesla is a real company by now, overvalued or not, and a serious force to be reckoned with. (People have actually said the same about Jobs and Apple, and the actual results were just the opposite.)
Hybridís are boring, Teslaís are fun and constantly getting upgraded new software . Apple of cars is an apt description.

Offline Abey

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #6358 on: November 16, 2021, 11:23:41 PM »
I think the boomer vs millennial energy is strong in this EV discussion here on ddf  ;D ;D

Offline yuneeq

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #6359 on: November 17, 2021, 07:21:41 AM »
I think the boomer vs millennial energy is strong in this EV discussion here on ddf  ;D ;D

Itís not necessarily boomer vs millennial. You can believe that Tesla the company is viable and will likely be profitable long term, and still dislike TSLA the stock.
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