Author Topic: Stocks  (Read 800608 times)

Offline Mordyk

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #6900 on: May 12, 2022, 02:41:02 PM »
We are approximately 1% shy of the S&P going into bear market.

Any bets that we get there before the end of the week? Will buyers surface when we hit that level, and claim the market is 'oversold'?

Stay tuned.... This has been a wild ride.
or this will be a wild ride?
#TYH

Offline aygart

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #6901 on: May 12, 2022, 04:29:21 PM »


and Iím not selling until Iím even or up.

Why?
Feelings don't care about your facts

Online yuneeq

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #6902 on: May 12, 2022, 04:39:31 PM »
"If you fall, I will be there." -Floor

Offline gozalim

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #6903 on: May 12, 2022, 05:35:18 PM »
Yup. I was discussing the psychology of it with a client of mine that called me today contemplating pulling out of their Whole Life insurance because they "can average 6% in an index fund". I explained the difference between a 6% average over a long term, with ups and downs and the various emotions that can dominate at various points.
there are better ways of him investing his WL capital in an index fund then by pulling out

Offline Barryg

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #6904 on: May 12, 2022, 07:31:29 PM »
Why?

Sunk cost fallacy
basically answered, but similar to other ddf members that have posted in this thread, Iím trying to reinvent the wheel, but not with a lot of money. There was a point where the market was even and I was up pretty big percentage-wise. Now that it tanked recently it wouldnít be fair to ask for results (except that Iím not too far off from overall market performance.)

Offline VacationLover

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #6905 on: May 12, 2022, 07:32:21 PM »
It's not a month yet. It's not fair to jump to conclusions yet. The stock could be over $1000 at that point.

ETA: And anyone who bought NFLX is not doing much better. It's down about 18% since then.
When did the OP of NFLX mention a time target?

Offline VacationLover

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #6906 on: May 12, 2022, 07:41:33 PM »
(Without giving advice-just what I did)
My $0.2 are, that Cathie wood has a lot more knowledge than me, since she is a TSLA and innovation bull, I may as well invest in ARKK and let her figure out where to invest. I was up on ARKK over 70% at the end of 2021 (and since turned into deep red) but again, if I want to take some risk at will be in her ETF.

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #6907 on: May 12, 2022, 07:43:38 PM »
My $0.2 are, that Cathie wood has a lot more knowledge than me, since she is a TSLA and innovation bull, I may as well invest in ARKK and let her figure out where to invest. I was up on ARKK over 70% at the end of 2021 (and since turned into deep red) but again, if I want to take some risk at will be in her ETF.

The biggest criticism I have seen all over of Cathie Wood is total lack of risk management. (There are other issues too). That being said, if David Hunter's melt-up scenario ends up playing out, ARKK will go up along with the rest.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Online Mf1

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #6908 on: May 12, 2022, 07:47:35 PM »
My $0.2 are, that Cathie wood has a lot more knowledge than me, since she is a TSLA and innovation bull, I may as well invest in ARKK and let her figure out where to invest. I was up on ARKK over 70% at the end of 2021 (and since turned into deep red) but again, if I want to take some risk at will be in her ETF.
Saw some recommendations for short term puts on arkk...

Offline VacationLover

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #6909 on: May 13, 2022, 08:13:12 AM »
Why wouldnít the deal go though? Not very many outs in the merger agreement.

Actually very surprised there is such a large delta between current price and buyout price.
And the Twitter takeover is on hold

Offline yos9694

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #6910 on: May 13, 2022, 08:17:20 AM »
And the Twitter takeover is on hold

No surprise
« Last Edit: May 13, 2022, 08:25:47 AM by yos9694 »

Offline shmoe joe

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #6911 on: May 13, 2022, 12:54:44 PM »
Is now the time to buy Twitter (stocks not the company  ; )?
give some love (likes) to a brother!

Offline Ephcc90

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #6912 on: May 13, 2022, 01:15:50 PM »
And the Twitter takeover is on hold
lol no itís not. Musk canít just walk from this. Twitter can force him to close.

Offline AsherO

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #6913 on: May 13, 2022, 01:23:18 PM »
Is now the time to buy Twitter (stocks not the company  ; )?

Tempting. Deal closes at $54.20 and youíre up 33% on your money. Could go south, but thatís a lot of upside.

Offline madhocker

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #6914 on: May 13, 2022, 01:23:39 PM »
lol no itís not. Musk canít just walk from this. Twitter can force him to close.
Right. but he will very likely renegotiate his offer and be successful.

However, it is unlikely that he will drop the purchase price by 25%. That is the spread now between todays stock price and the 54.20 offer. It may not be a crazy risk to purchase today at 40.

Offline Ephcc90

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #6915 on: May 13, 2022, 01:25:56 PM »
Right. but he will very likely renegotiate his offer and be successful.

However, it is unlikely that he will drop the purchase price by 25%. That is the spread now between todays stock price and the 54.20 offer. It may not be a crazy risk to purchase today at 40.
I think the Twitter board would be hard pressed to agree to a reduced price when they have otherwise have a binding contract. But who knows.

Offline madhocker

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #6916 on: May 13, 2022, 01:29:50 PM »
I think the Twitter board would be hard pressed to agree to a reduced price when they have otherwise have a binding contract. But who knows.
It may be easier for them to throw him a bone than to go through the lawsuit. But again, risk/reward on this spread seems reasonable at today's price.

Offline AsherO

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #6917 on: May 13, 2022, 01:44:32 PM »
It may be easier for them to throw him a bone than to go through the lawsuit. But again, risk/reward on this spread seems reasonable at today's price.

How much of a bone? And he canít afford a lawsuit, Teslaís stock would tank. I say buy Twitter and some kind of option to sell TSLA at current price (say in 6 months) as a hedge.

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #6918 on: May 13, 2022, 01:47:24 PM »

Part of a thread with some interesting takes. This portion is one piece that I think many can resonate with, regardless of what one thinks of the rest of what he says.

I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline haltkup

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #6919 on: May 15, 2022, 09:23:03 AM »
Saw some recommendations for short term puts on arkk...
I have an allocation in SARK as a hedge and it has worked exactly like expected.