Author Topic: Stocks  (Read 379440 times)

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3510 on: March 20, 2019, 12:11:58 AM »
Already bought and sold (made 3%) and bought again @ 168. My analysis is that there are only 2 dominant airplane manufacturers and Airbus is really backlogged on orders, which is part of the reason for BA demand/success. People still need to fly and the demand for aircraft currently far outpaces the supply, so for an airline to transition to Airbus would not only be cost prohibitive but also extremely hard to pull off. Also, you have to have confidence in Boeing’s ability to figure out the flaw and correct it. In 2012 after launching the 787,  they had some issues with the Dreamliner batteries, and it took BA 3 months to solve, yet the stock was up 80% that year. And lastly from a technicals standpoint the $160 floor has shown resistance.
Where are you seeing Boeing at those prices? Hasn’t been there in 2 years.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3511 on: March 20, 2019, 12:20:58 AM »
That is what I have been doing for a while now, keep adding to my gold , silver and platinum long futures and a variety of gold stocks, buying on every dip , my average costs are well below current prices. But the trade of the century was Palladium which doubled since last August, I feel so bad by selling all my palladium physical holdings between $680 and $740, I was in between $250 and $300, reached $1600 today , very overbought now , and could be the best short in the near future. Platinum is a screaming buy , i started buying below $800 and now we are @$860, the high during the last run up was around $2300.
I'll look to short the ES, NDX and stocks at the first sign of a downtrend.
Would you use SPPP?
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline ludmila

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3512 on: March 20, 2019, 12:24:59 AM »
Already bought and sold (made 3%) and bought again @ 168. My analysis is that there are only 2 dominant airplane manufacturers and Airbus is really backlogged on orders, which is part of the reason for BA demand/success. People still need to fly and the demand for aircraft currently far outpaces the supply, so for an airline to transition to Airbus would not only be cost prohibitive but also extremely hard to pull off. Also, you have to have confidence in Boeing’s ability to figure out the flaw and correct it. In 2012 after launching the 787,  they had some issues with the Dreamliner batteries, and it took BA 3 months to solve, yet the stock was up 80% that year. And lastly from a technicals standpoint the $160 floor has shown resistance.
What stock are you talking about that you bought at $168 and has support at $160? If you are talking about BA the stock is at $372.45??
I was the Best,still the Best, and will always be the Best.
Pele Good,Maradona Better, George Best.

Offline ludmila

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3513 on: March 20, 2019, 12:26:25 AM »
Where are you seeing Boeing at those prices? Hasn’t been there in 2 years.
I think he meant $368 .
I was the Best,still the Best, and will always be the Best.
Pele Good,Maradona Better, George Best.

Offline ludmila

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3514 on: March 20, 2019, 12:37:36 AM »
Would you use SPPP?
Are they 50-50 platinum and palladium? What worries me here is palladium, how much higher can it go? The only pure platinum play is PPLT and better the platinum futures which come in 50 oz.  SPPP will do well if palladium keeps its parabolic rise, looking at the chart it has been moving up with palladium .
I was the Best,still the Best, and will always be the Best.
Pele Good,Maradona Better, George Best.

Offline dealfinder11

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3515 on: March 20, 2019, 07:09:24 AM »
What stock are you talking about that you bought at $168 and has support at $160? If you are talking about BA the stock is at $372.45??

I think he meant $368 .
Where are you seeing Boeing at those prices? Hasn’t been there in 2 years.

Correct I meant 368/360.

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3516 on: March 20, 2019, 01:32:48 PM »
Already bought and sold (made 3%) and bought again @ 368. My analysis is that there are only 2 dominant airplane manufacturers and Airbus is really backlogged on orders, which is part of the reason for BA demand/success. People still need to fly and the demand for aircraft currently far outpaces the supply, so for an airline to transition to Airbus would not only be cost prohibitive but also extremely hard to pull off. Also, you have to have confidence in Boeing’s ability to figure out the flaw and correct it. In 2012 after launching the 787,  they had some issues with the Dreamliner batteries, and it took BA 3 months to solve, yet the stock was up 80% that year. And lastly from a technicals standpoint the $360 floor has shown resistance.

Is that a trading analysis or an investing analysis (I've fixed your quote to reflect the numbers you meant to put there). I claim ignorance if you're talking from a trading standpoint, and refer to @ludmila, but from an investing standpoint, I don't see the compelling screaming buy. Is the company not fairly valued at ~20x future earnings (probably not counting the aftermath of the MAX - which I believe will end up being a small bump in the long run). Is there an earnings growth catalyst that would put it on a trajectory to earn that much more, making 20x future earning (or 18x TTM earnings) a bargain?
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline dealfinder11

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3517 on: March 20, 2019, 02:56:22 PM »
Is that a trading analysis or an investing analysis (I've fixed your quote to reflect the numbers you meant to put there). I claim ignorance if you're talking from a trading standpoint, and refer to @ludmila, but from an investing standpoint, I don't see the compelling screaming buy. Is the company not fairly valued at ~20x future earnings (probably not counting the aftermath of the MAX - which I believe will end up being a small bump in the long run). Is there an earnings growth catalyst that would put it on a trajectory to earn that much more, making 20x future earning (or 18x TTM earnings) a bargain?

Both. Stock was up 35% YTD because the fundamentals are strong. The drop is a nice buying opportunity. My analysis explains the irrational overreaction by the sellers (although this is going to cost Boeing, it’s nowhere near the market cap loss.)

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3518 on: March 20, 2019, 03:14:44 PM »
Both. Stock was up 35% YTD because the fundamentals are strong. The drop is a nice buying opportunity. My analysis explains the irrational overreaction by the sellers (although this is going to cost Boeing, it’s nowhere near the market cap loss.)
I agree with the overreaction as it relates to the issue at hand, but what is BA actually worth?
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline dealfinder11

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3519 on: March 20, 2019, 03:40:31 PM »
I agree with the overreaction as it relates to the issue at hand, but what is BA actually worth?
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/ba/analystestimates

Offline Ephraimh

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Stocks
« Reply #3520 on: March 20, 2019, 04:08:54 PM »
Is that a trading analysis or an investing analysis (I've fixed your quote to reflect the numbers you meant to put there). I claim ignorance if you're talking from a trading standpoint, and refer to @ludmila, but from an investing standpoint, I don't see the compelling screaming buy. Is the company not fairly valued at ~20x ( future ) TTM earnings (probably not counting the aftermath of the MAX - which I believe will end up being a small bump in the long run). Is there an earnings growth catalyst that would put it on a trajectory to earn that much more, making 20x ( future ) TTM earning (or 18x ( TTM ) Forward earnings) a bargain?
I think youre mixing up TTM P/E and Forward P/E in your post.. i don't think BA is forecasting an earnings decline.. so I FTFY

But i agree to the essence of your point, BA is no screaming buy here, the recent run-up before the latest crash (pun intended) was very overbought, the historical PE data tells the whole story

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3521 on: March 22, 2019, 01:46:52 PM »
I think youre mixing up TTM P/E and Forward P/E in your post.. i don't think BA is forecasting an earnings decline.. so I FTFY

But i agree to the essence of your point, BA is no screaming buy here, the recent run-up before the latest crash (pun intended) was very overbought, the historical PE data tells the whole story

Thank you for correcting my TTM vs Forward P/E, I wasn't paying attention as I was typing, was switching tabs back and forth from the stock quote to the DDF post. Might I add, that a ~2.2% dividend yield (that could be cut if there's significant fallout from the current MAX issues) doesn't adequately compensate for the risk.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3522 on: March 22, 2019, 01:50:09 PM »
What do you guys think about Treasuries now that the Fed seems to have indicated that it's (at least) on hold, and the yield curve is super flat and has several inversion points? Are we at the beginning of another bull run in longer dated treasuries? TLT or ZROZ for ETF plays?

And then I just saw this: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-22/traders-are-blindsided-again-by-treasuries-paying-same-as-cash

Quote
“In many respects, the U.S. 10-year Treasury is still, in an low-yielding world, a high-yielding asset,”
« Last Edit: March 22, 2019, 02:16:22 PM by ExGingi »
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline ludmila

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3523 on: March 22, 2019, 03:52:26 PM »
What do you guys think about Treasuries now that the Fed seems to have indicated that it's (at least) on hold, and the yield curve is super flat and has several inversion points? Are we at the beginning of another bull run in longer dated treasuries? TLT or ZROZ for ETF plays?

And then I just saw this: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-22/traders-are-blindsided-again-by-treasuries-paying-same-as-cash
I think you have a point here, in a January if I recall correctly, my mentor, Trader Vic said to buy physical gold and silver as a hold not a trade and long term treasuries, Ill have to check it again , he is very negative about stocks technically and fundamentally, thinks the FED went too fast in raising rates and even in January he said they will have to pause, retreat or even lower as a bear market in stocks is coming and a recession somewhere around July.
I was the Best,still the Best, and will always be the Best.
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Offline dealfinder11

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3524 on: March 23, 2019, 11:02:39 PM »

 
even in January he said they will have to pause, retreat or even lower as a bear market in stocks is coming and a recession somewhere around July.

S&P up 13.9% YTD