Author Topic: Stocks  (Read 1179326 times)

Offline Ephraimh

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3700 on: January 29, 2020, 05:34:40 PM »
The stock is at $650 AH.  Crazy move.   

Even after today’s report, I still think that
Shorting at these levels, is a rational thing to do.

The buyers at these levels are irrational.

Never fight irrationality with rationality.

Offline good sam

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3701 on: January 29, 2020, 05:49:41 PM »
You will never go broke taking a profit.
Agreed, but it still stings
If you don't care why would you comment?
HT: DMYD

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3702 on: January 29, 2020, 06:47:45 PM »
The stock is at $650 AH.  Crazy move.   

Even after today’s report, I still think that

Short squeeze + AH effect.

Remember that the markets can stay irrational for longer than most of us can stay solvent.

Whatever position one takes in such situations (and in many others), one should take protective measures in the form of options and/or trailing stops (in case one is sitting on profits and doesn't want to cash out yet).
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline Ephraimh

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3703 on: January 29, 2020, 06:59:44 PM »
Short squeeze + AH effect.

Remember that the markets can stay irrational for longer than most of us can stay solvent.
Agreed. My point exactly


Whatever position one takes in such situations (and in many others), one should take protective measures in the form of options and/or trailing stops (in case one is sitting on profits and doesn't want to cash out yet).
Disagree on this one, “whatever position one takes” is too of a wide term, it’s true in the case of a futuristic car company with a blown up valuation after a monster run, but not true with any quality company you’re holding for the long run.

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3704 on: January 29, 2020, 07:22:05 PM »
Disagree on this one, “whatever position one takes” is too of a wide term, it’s true in the case of a futuristic car company with a blown up valuation after a monster run, but not true with any quality company you’re holding for the long run.

I don't think we disagree, I think you just misunderstood what I meant when I wrote "whatever position one takes". I meant whether one takes a long position (hoping the stock goes up) or a short position (hoping it goes down).
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline Ephraimh

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3705 on: January 29, 2020, 07:30:04 PM »
I don't think we disagree, I think you just misunderstood what I meant when I wrote "whatever position one takes". I meant whether one takes a long position (hoping the stock goes up) or a short position (hoping it goes down).
If by “long position” you mean as in the opposite of a short position as oppose to long as in long term, then yeah we agree

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3706 on: January 29, 2020, 08:15:25 PM »
If by “long position” you mean as in the opposite of a short position as oppose to long as in long term, then yeah we agree

When talking in terms of "positions" long and short mean the direction in which the stock move that will generate a profit. A long position generates profits when the stock (or other underlying asset) goes up, while a short position generates a profit when the price of the stock declines.

If a holding time frame is meant one must indicate that with the word "term".  (BTW, a short position, by virtue of its mechanics and costs, will never be a longer-term position).
« Last Edit: January 29, 2020, 10:02:11 PM by ExGingi »
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Offline Ephraimh

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Stocks
« Reply #3707 on: January 29, 2020, 09:02:31 PM »
When talking in terms of "positions" long and short mean the direction in which the stock move that will generate a profit. A long position generates profits when the stock (or other underlying asset) goes up, while a short position generates a profit when the price of the stock declines.

If a holding time frame is meant one must indicate that with the word "term".  (BTW, a short position will, by virtue of its mechanics and costs, will never be a longer-term position).
Agree to all of the above.

Just in your original post you wrote “whatever position one takes” which also includes long term positions..  but if by “whatever position” you meant “ whatever position, besides long term positions” than you’re right my bad..

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3708 on: February 02, 2020, 01:50:35 PM »
Just read the memo . Full of gems. Would recommend to anyone interested in investing (of any sort, not just the stock market).

And here's another interesting one for you (though not as deep IMHO).

https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/dismissing-the-experts
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline Iz

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3709 on: February 02, 2020, 03:41:44 PM »

If someone has a significant amount of funds to invest, and wants to invest it all in the stock market, is it better to invest it all asap (to take advantage of generally rising markets), or invest it a little at a time (to get the advantage of dollar cost averaging)?
Thoughts? Sources?
Thanks.

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3710 on: February 02, 2020, 04:19:11 PM »
If someone has a significant amount of funds to invest, and wants to invest it all in the stock market, is it better to invest it all asap (to take advantage of generally rising markets), or invest it a little at a time (to get the advantage of dollar cost averaging)?
Thoughts? Sources?
Thanks.

If someone has a significant amount of funds to invest, and wants to invest it all in the stock market and is asking such questions on an anonymous online forum, such person should probably not be putting the money in the stock market.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline Iz

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3711 on: February 02, 2020, 04:44:08 PM »
If someone has a significant amount of funds to invest, and wants to invest it all in the stock market and is asking such questions on an anonymous online forum, such person should probably not be putting the money in the stock market.
גוט געזאגט!

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3712 on: February 02, 2020, 04:57:00 PM »
If someone has a significant amount of funds to invest, and wants to invest it all in the stock market, is it better to invest it all asap (to take advantage of generally rising markets), or invest it a little at a time (to get the advantage of dollar cost averaging)?
Thoughts? Sources?
Thanks.

In addition to recommending reading the above article where Mauldin mentions the importance of the entry point in relevance to expected future returns (and if you really want that point drummed in just look through John Hussman's letters, you can probably almost throw a dart and hit one where he mentions it) I always refer myself and others back to the timeless article by Richard Russell ע"ה which was reprinted in many places, I like this one as it is more complete (some other reprints leave out some sections).
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline Ephraimh

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Stocks
« Reply #3713 on: February 02, 2020, 04:57:02 PM »
If someone has a significant amount of funds to invest, and wants to invest it all in the stock market, is it better to invest it all asap (to take advantage of generally rising markets), or invest it a little at a time (to get the advantage of dollar cost averaging)?
Thoughts?
Dollar cost averaging.
Sources?
Common sense. You can’t time the market.
Thanks.
You’re welcome.

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3714 on: February 02, 2020, 04:59:14 PM »
You can’t time the market.

And neither can I, but there are definitely people that use effective timing strategies. If this is for a long-term buy and hold, I refer everyone back to the article by Mauldin I posted above.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Online aygart

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3715 on: February 02, 2020, 05:15:52 PM »
Dollar cost averaging.Common sense. You can’t time the market.You’re welcome.
This has been discussed a number of times and the math is against cost averaging. You are more likely to just miss gains.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline Iz

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3716 on: February 02, 2020, 05:26:36 PM »
So now my ספק is a מחלוקת.  ::)

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3717 on: February 02, 2020, 05:31:17 PM »
This has been discussed a number of times and the math is against cost averaging. You are more likely to just miss gains.

That might depend in the direction of the price movement and time given to DCA.

However, if one decides to diversify between non-correlated asset classes rather than just put everything in one basket, then periodic rebalancing makes a lot of sense IMHO, in which case DCA is meaningless. You decide on the allocation and set up periodic rebalancing (best if you use an vehicle that will allow for that rather than relying on yourself to manually do it).
« Last Edit: February 02, 2020, 07:08:50 PM by ExGingi »
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline yuneeq

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3718 on: February 02, 2020, 05:44:54 PM »
This has been discussed a number of times and the math is against cost averaging. You are more likely to just miss gains.

Personally, if I have funds to invest, I feel most comfortable investing a lump sum in one shot -  somewhere between 30-80% of the total funds, and dollar cost averaging the rest. In a long term bull market I’d start with a lower lump sum and a larger amount during a bear market. I don’t remember reading this anywhere, but it’s what I’m comfortable with and it makes sense to me.
Visibly Jewish

Offline Ephraimh

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Stocks
« Reply #3719 on: February 02, 2020, 07:55:02 PM »
Personally, if I have funds to invest, I feel most comfortable investing a lump sum in one shot -  somewhere between 30-80% of the total funds, and dollar cost averaging the rest. In a long term bull market I’d start with a lower lump sum and a larger amount during a bear market. I don’t remember reading this anywhere, but it’s what I’m comfortable with and it makes sense to me.
Like. Same.