Author Topic: Stocks  (Read 448090 times)

Offline zh cohen

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3840 on: February 27, 2020, 06:38:33 PM »
Trying to catch a falling knife?

It seemed like you were the one advocating trying to time the market

Offline nobiggy

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3841 on: February 27, 2020, 09:00:56 PM »
Well, as I pointed out before, this isn't just "a dip".

I would recommend you educate yourself a little bit about P/E ratios and future returns. Hussman has been writing about this for longer than I can remember, but for a simpler shorter read you can try https://fsinvestments.com/learn/articles/PE-ratios I also highly recommend reading Richard Russel's timeless article https://www.mauldineconomics.com/images/uploads/pdf/mwo041406.pdf

Please explain how you know it's not just a dip?
I assume then you're shorting the market, as you'll be guaranteed to make money.

Offline aygart

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3842 on: February 27, 2020, 09:11:56 PM »



Which means it needs to rise 13.25% just to break even.
That has already happened.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3843 on: February 27, 2020, 09:35:37 PM »
Great time to get into the market...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/corona-crisis-ripening-buys-233211747.html

Quote
The robust fundamental outlook for 2020 has not changed, and I donít believe it is likely to change. It appears that China has been able to control the spread of this wannabe pandemic.

Do you share this view?
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3844 on: February 27, 2020, 09:47:52 PM »
Please explain how you know it's not just a dip?

I don't know anything. But unlike previous dips we had during this long bull run, which were based on fears or emotions of what might happen (such as the effects of tariffs, Brexit, etc.), this pull back is based on real actual significant disruptions with an unknown end, and serious risk of growing into a much bigger issue. On top of that we were dealing with a richly valued market which is mostly fueled by low interest rates.

Quote
I assume then you're shorting the market, as you'll be guaranteed to make money.
That's a wrong assumption on your behalf. I wrote that I think moving to the sidelines due to uncertainty is prudent. Since I strive to be a Lubavitcher, I can only count on taxes as being guaranteed, death might be eradicated very soon.  ;)
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3845 on: February 27, 2020, 09:50:25 PM »
That has already happened.
Indeed, which is why getting out now might not be as hard or painful as it might be after an additional drop.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline ltttc

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3846 on: February 27, 2020, 09:56:08 PM »
 Since I strive to be a Lubavitcher, I can only count on taxes as being guaranteed, death might be eradicated very soon.  ;)
[/quote]
Amen!

Offline nobiggy

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3847 on: February 27, 2020, 10:17:09 PM »
I don't know anything. But unlike previous dips we had during this long bull run, which were based on fears or emotions of what might happen (such as the effects of tariffs, Brexit, etc.), this pull back is based on real actual significant disruptions with an unknown end, and serious risk of growing into a much bigger issue. On top of that we were dealing with a richly valued market which is mostly fueled by low interest rates.


If it keeps going down interest rates will be cut slowly again.
There have been other such risks and markets went down and the issues got sorted and then we were back on track.
« Last Edit: February 27, 2020, 10:26:39 PM by nobiggy »

Offline good sam

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3848 on: February 27, 2020, 10:47:10 PM »


Which means it needs to rise 13.25% just to break even.
Are you perpetuating the old myth that it's easier to go from 100 to 50 (50%) than 50 to 100 (100%)? That's only for people who don't get the מלגב/מלבר concept.
If you don't care why would you comment?
HT: DMYD

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3849 on: February 27, 2020, 11:24:26 PM »
If it keeps going down interest rates will be cut slowly again.
You seem to be certain of that. I am not, though I do think it is likely to happen, not because it solves anything, but because when the only tool you have is a hammer, then every problem looks like a nail. The current downturn (forget about the stock market, look at airlines, and the entire manufacturing supply chain) isn't that much of a demand shock, it's a supply shock. How do lower rates solve that?

Quote
There have been other such risks and markets went down and the issues got sorted and then we were back on track.
Could you please name a recent similar shock?

Also, to what extent are we going to ignore fundamentals? Stock price appreciation can come from one of two reasons: either earnings growth or multiple expansion. Historically speaking, multiples are high. While earnings can grow for a while in excess of GDP growth, they should eventually revert to the mean. So with real warnings about earnings being lower due to the supply disruptions, and multiples at already elevated levels, where does price appreciation come from?
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline dealfinder11

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3850 on: February 27, 2020, 11:54:19 PM »
I don't know anything. But unlike previous dips we had during this long bull run, which were based on fears or emotions of what might happen (such as the effects of tariffs, Brexit, etc.), this pull back is based on real actual significant disruptions with an unknown end, and serious risk of growing into a much bigger issue. On top of that we were dealing with a richly valued market which is mostly fueled by low interest rates.

?s=20

Offline aygart

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3851 on: February 28, 2020, 12:41:05 AM »
You seem to be certain of that. I am not, though I do think it is likely to happen, not because it solves anything, but because when the only tool you have is a hammer, then every problem looks like a nail. The current downturn (forget about the stock market, look at airlines, and the entire manufacturing supply chain) isn't that much of a demand shock, it's a supply shock. How do lower rates solve that?
Could you please name a recent similar shock?

Also, to what extent are we going to ignore fundamentals? Stock price appreciation can come from one of two reasons: either earnings growth or multiple expansion. Historically speaking, multiples are high. While earnings can grow for a while in excess of GDP growth, they should eventually revert to the mean. So with real warnings about earnings being lower due to the supply disruptions, and multiples at already elevated levels, where does price appreciation come from?
No no no the drop is because of the D debate.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3852 on: February 28, 2020, 08:05:18 AM »
No no no the drop is because of the D debate.

זה וזה גורם.

After Trump's Corona news conference, some might think that there's a serious risk that a D could beat him, and when one sees what the Ds have to offer at the debate, it sure scares the markets.  :P
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline Kobe Bryant

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3853 on: February 28, 2020, 08:31:40 AM »

Have you lived through/experienced 2008/2009 or 1999/2000 drops?
Which means it needs to rise 13.25% just to break even.
I think this just proves my point , if dealing with long term investments such as retirement/college funds there is absolutely no need to pull out of the market.
During the SARS outbreak in 2003 between Jan 14th and March 11th the S&P dropped 14.1% from 932 to 800 , by May of 03 it fully recovered to 934 , and today even with the dip its at close to 3000.
And the same analysis can be made about the 08 financial crisis.

Offline aygart

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3854 on: February 28, 2020, 09:10:15 AM »
I think this just proves my point , if dealing with long term investments such as retirement/college funds there is absolutely no need to pull out of the market.
During the SARS outbreak in 2003 between Jan 14th and March 11th the S&P dropped 14.1% from 932 to 800 , by May of 03 it fully recovered to 934 , and today even with the dip its at close to 3000.
And the same analysis can be made about the 08 financial crisis.
This is closing in on 10x as many cases and double the deaths of SARS and MERS combined.
Feelings don't care about your facts