Author Topic: Stocks  (Read 450926 times)

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3870 on: March 01, 2020, 09:50:27 PM »
You seem to be certain of that. I am not, though I do think it is likely to happen, not because it solves anything, but because when the only tool you have is a hammer, then every problem looks like a nail. The current downturn (forget about the stock market, look at airlines, and the entire manufacturing supply chain) isn't that much of a demand shock, it's a supply shock. How do lower rates solve that?
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-01/coronavirus-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly-of-policy-response
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline Yef

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3871 on: March 01, 2020, 09:59:56 PM »
This a obvious dip in market. The question is just which stocks to grab now on the low!

Offline ltttc

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3872 on: March 01, 2020, 11:17:14 PM »
This a obvious dip in market. The question is just which stocks to grab now on the low!
Many solid companies / good buys

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3873 on: March 02, 2020, 01:33:03 AM »
Many solid companies / good buys

If oversold to the point where P/E is low and/or dividend yield is high (but beware of value trap).
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline Ephraimh

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3874 on: March 02, 2020, 02:20:02 AM »
This is starting to become reminiscent of 2008. GLD and SLV are down too now.

If remaining invested, it is probably prudent to put portfolio insurance in place (long put options).
C'mon!

Donít compare a global slowdown in light of a virus that can and will be treated in the near future to a global slowdown caused by the biggest financial institutions underpinning the global economy literally collapsing into bankruptcy.

This is a buyers market.

No reminiscence to 2008 here whatsoever. wooof

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3875 on: March 02, 2020, 08:24:44 AM »
C'mon!

Donít compare a global slowdown in light of a virus that can and will be treated in the near future to a global slowdown caused by the biggest financial institutions underpinning the global economy literally collapsing into bankruptcy.

This is a buyers market.

No reminiscence to 2008 here whatsoever. wooof

So you think the bond market signals are silly money rather than smart money?
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline dealfinder11

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3876 on: March 02, 2020, 09:39:09 AM »
C'mon!

Donít compare a global slowdown in light of a virus that can and will be treated in the near future to a global slowdown caused by the biggest financial institutions underpinning the global economy literally collapsing into bankruptcy.

This is a buyers market.

No reminiscence to 2008 here whatsoever. wooof

What makes you so confident that this sell off is entirely about the carnivorous and not an overdue correction due to weakness in the global economy overall? The Cornovirus definitely played a role in deteriorating further, but making absolute statements about the markets are a dangerous game.

Offline Ephraimh

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3877 on: March 02, 2020, 11:27:55 AM »
So you think the bond market signals are silly money rather than smart money?
Smart money?

You mean that when the yield curve inverted a few months ago it predicted the recession then because it was so smart that it predicted this virus now a few months later?

Lol. Smart money. Iíll tell you what.

This virus is just a new recession-is-coming flavor of the year, and youíre falling for it.

Offline Ephraimh

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3878 on: March 02, 2020, 11:30:42 AM »
What makes you so confident that this sell off is entirely about the carnivorous and not an overdue correction due to weakness in the global economy overall? The Cornovirus definitely played a role in deteriorating further, but making absolute statements about the markets are a dangerous game.
Because the moves directly chronicles good and bad reports on the virus. Reason enough to make me confident?

Offline davidrotts63

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3879 on: March 02, 2020, 11:57:10 AM »
Grrr RobinHood.
(Quit) pulling out the flowers, and watering the weeds. -Peter Lynch

Offline as2

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3880 on: March 02, 2020, 12:16:12 PM »
Grrr RobinHood.
Never put all your eggs in one basket...
Memories last forever, make them while you can.

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3881 on: March 02, 2020, 12:18:55 PM »
Smart money?

You mean that when the yield curve inverted a few months ago it predicted the recession then because it was so smart that it predicted this virus now a few months later?

Lol. Smart money. Iíll tell you what.

This virus is just a new recession-is-coming flavor of the year, and youíre falling for it.
When did the yield curve invert? There are some inverted segments, but it didn't fully invert and hasn't now. As a matter of fact IINM the 10-30 yr curve is slightly steeper now than it was a year ago. That being said, the entire curve is lower.

I might be falling for it, but so are some other people such as Mohamed El-Erian and others.

I didn't say I think it's time to short the market. I did say that it's a very risky time where I see more downside than upside potential, which is why I've moved into a larger cash position in my portfolios.

Though for some there are definitely opportunities in this market. High volatility is a gift for pros.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/02/mohamed-el-erian-lifts-his-do-not-buy-the-dip-warning-for-pros-only.html

Here's someone who might be saying something similar to you:

« Last Edit: March 02, 2020, 12:23:09 PM by ExGingi »
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Online cgr

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3882 on: March 02, 2020, 12:37:00 PM »
Grrr RobinHood.

Prepping for some major movement in the market once it comes back online ;D

Online cgr

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3883 on: March 02, 2020, 12:39:35 PM »
Grrr RobinHood.

Wondering what to make of todays gains and the fact that Robinhood (mostly amateur investors?) has been down...

Offline Ephraimh

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Stocks
« Reply #3884 on: March 02, 2020, 12:42:45 PM »
When did the yield curve invert? There are some inverted segments, but it didn't fully invert and hasn't now. As a matter of fact IINM the 10-30 yr curve is slightly steeper now than it was a year ago. That being said, the entire curve is lower.

I might be falling for it, but so are some other people such as Mohamed El-Erian and others.

I didn't say I think it's time to short the market. I did say that it's a very risky time where I see more downside than upside potential, which is why I've moved into a larger cash position in my portfolios.

Though for some there are definitely opportunities in this market. High volatility is a gift for pros.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/02/mohamed-el-erian-lifts-his-do-not-buy-the-dip-warning-for-pros-only.html

Here's someone who might be saying something similar to you:
Well then we just disagree, I think there is more upside from here than downside, even if you only have 6 months to wait.

And this Michael Batnick chart is gold! heís totally right. Lol.

Btw, you should listen to his podcasts, heís as sharp as they come. Heís a hidden gem in my opinion.   

Heís on with Josh Brown a lot on their firms podcast The Compound ó https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-compound-show/id1456467014

And he has his own podcast with Ben Carlson (whoís also sharp as  a whip) Animal Spirits ó https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/animal-spirits-podcast/id1310192007