Author Topic: Stocks  (Read 449701 times)

Online Kobe Bryant

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3885 on: March 02, 2020, 12:59:57 PM »
What makes you so confident that this sell off is entirely about the carnivorous and not an overdue correction due to weakness in the global economy overall? The Cornovirus definitely played a role in deteriorating further, but making absolute statements about the markets are a dangerous game.
You would have to explain, what changed in the fundamentals since January, other then Covid 19.

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3886 on: March 02, 2020, 01:03:01 PM »
Well then we just disagree, I think there is more upside from here than downside, even if you only have 6 months to wait.

And this Michael Batnick chart is gold! hes totally right. Lol.

Btw, you should listen to his podcasts, hes as sharp as they come. Hes a hidden gem in my opinion.   

Hes on with Josh Brown a lot on their firms podcast The Compound https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-compound-show/id1456467014

And he has his own podcast with Ben Carlson (whos also sharp as  a whip) Animal Spirits https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/animal-spirits-podcast/id1310192007

Batnick and Brown are both on Ritholtz's team. That's an excellent cool-headed team.

As for our disagreement, well, that's the beauty that makes the market work. If everyone was on the same side there would be no market! I am not totally out of the market, I just moved a larger portion into cash. 2008 was terrible, but it ended in March of 2009. When there's blood on the street, cash is king. I know people that made excellent buys in the real estate crash, and wwe all know Warren Buffet made some good deals with his pile of cash back then.

Looking at the Batnick chart reminds me of what I did during the BP Oil spill. At that point I thought BP was a buying opportunity, but given that I don't trust politicians, and I found a lot of it to be political, I was scared of the tail risk of the Obama administration forcing BP into bankruptcy, which is why I opted to invest in BP bonds rather than buy the stock. I was rewarded handsomely (though if I were a bond pro I would have probably done much better).
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline aygart

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3887 on: March 02, 2020, 01:24:28 PM »
You would have to explain, what changed in the fundamentals since January, other then Covid 19.
Why does a correction need fundamentals to have changed?
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline Ephraimh

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3888 on: March 02, 2020, 01:26:52 PM »
Batnick and Brown are both on Ritholtz's team. That's an excellent cool-headed team.
Yep the whole team there is superb. Cool-headed and sharp, every single one of them.

As for our disagreement, well, that's the beauty that makes the market work. If everyone was on the same side there would be no market! I am not totally out of the market, I just moved a larger portion into cash. 2008 was terrible, but it ended in March of 2009. When there's blood on the street, cash is king. I know people that made excellent buys in the real estate crash, and wwe all know Warren Buffet made some good deals with his pile of cash back then.

Looking at the Batnick chart reminds me of what I did during the BP Oil spill. At that point I thought BP was a buying opportunity, but given that I don't trust politicians, and I found a lot of it to be political, I was scared of the tail risk of the Obama administration forcing BP into bankruptcy, which is why I opted to invest in BP bonds rather than buy the stock. I was rewarded handsomely (though if I were a bond pro I would have probably done much better).
Agree on the cash point as a whole, but to compare this to 2008 -which means keep on selling now because this downtrend is only getting started- is wrong, the time to sell to accumulate dry powder was a month ago, not now, now is a time to buy.

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3889 on: March 02, 2020, 02:04:07 PM »
Agree on the cash point as a whole, but to compare this to 2008 -which means keep on selling now because this downtrend is only getting started- is wrong,
I don't know. I'm not a trader, not sure about a downtrend. I see strong fundamental risks to businesses globally.

Quote
the time to sell to accumulate dry powder was a month ago, not now, now is a time to buy.
Agreed on the time to accumulate dry powder. Not sure if now is a time to buy (as a blanket statement. There are definitely bargains to be found. I also think it will be a bumpy ride ahead, no matter what direction it goes).
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline shwarmabob

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3890 on: March 02, 2020, 02:08:17 PM »
it's just so convenient to start the chart in 2009. That's all I need to look at, lol

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3891 on: March 02, 2020, 02:42:21 PM »
it's just so convenient to start the chart in 2009. That's all I need to look at, lol

As pointed out by some of the replies to the tweet.

The way I see things is that the bounce today (and other bullish sentiments expressed) are based on the expectation of the Fed (and other authorities, including the Chinese) to use several (major) tools heavy weapons to counter the inevitable downturn. The way I see it, the two "camps" are basically the "don't fight the Fed" camp, versus the "not only are those the wrong tools, but the downturn at this point is different because it's a major supply shock" camp (with a few more arguments for the latter camp).
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline dealfinder11

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3892 on: March 02, 2020, 03:06:37 PM »
You would have to explain, what changed in the fundamentals since January, other then Covid 19.

You mean you are completely unaware of the damage already done to the global economy due to the virus? Could definitely tip the scales. Not making any statements or predictions, just expressing skepticism in response to everyone who thinks they know what is going on.


Offline ExGingi

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3893 on: March 02, 2020, 06:56:39 PM »
the time to sell to accumulate dry powder was a month ago, not now, now is a time to buy.

I must say that I'm really seeing the benefits of $0 commissions. Making small ETF or option trades in order to hedge positions becomes so much easier when one doesn't have to take trading costs into account.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline EliJelly

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3894 on: March 02, 2020, 07:12:46 PM »
I must say that I'm really seeing the benefits of $0 commissions. Making small ETF or option trades in order to hedge positions becomes so much easier when one doesn't have to take trading costs into account.
Using?

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3895 on: March 02, 2020, 07:24:38 PM »
Using?

Options, leveraged ETFs. Or even just making tiny trades in an HSA that currently can't accept funding and has a small balance.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline EliJelly

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3896 on: March 02, 2020, 08:06:13 PM »
Options, leveraged ETFs. Or even just making tiny trades in an HSA that currently can't accept funding and has a small balance.
Meaning which financial inst?

Offline cgr

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3897 on: March 02, 2020, 08:08:54 PM »
Meaning which financial inst?

Almost all at this point.

Offline EliJelly

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3898 on: March 02, 2020, 08:12:49 PM »
Almost all at this point.
Heard so too, hope Chase will follow soon.

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #3899 on: March 02, 2020, 08:17:08 PM »
Meaning which financial inst?
Schwab. Fidelity. E*Trade.

Though I think only Schwab has $0 commissions for OTC stocks.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan