Well then we just disagree, I think there is more upside from here than downside, even if you only have 6 months to wait.
And this Michael Batnick chart is gold! he’s totally right. Lol.
Btw, you should listen to his podcasts, he’s as sharp as they come. He’s a hidden gem in my opinion.
He’s on with Josh Brown a lot on their firms podcast The Compound — https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-compound-show/id1456467014
And he has his own podcast with Ben Carlson (who’s also sharp as a whip) Animal Spirits — https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/animal-spirits-podcast/id1310192007
Batnick and Brown are both on Ritholtz's team. That's an excellent cool-headed team.
As for our disagreement, well, that's the beauty that makes the market work. If everyone was on the same side there would be no market! I am not totally out of the market, I just moved a larger portion into cash. 2008 was terrible, but it ended in March of 2009. When there's blood on the street, cash is king. I know people that made excellent buys in the real estate crash, and wwe all know Warren Buffet made some good deals with his pile of cash back then.
Looking at the Batnick chart reminds me of what I did during the BP Oil spill. At that point I thought BP was a buying opportunity, but given that I don't trust politicians, and I found a lot of it to be political, I was scared of the tail risk of the Obama administration forcing BP into bankruptcy, which is why I opted to invest in BP bonds rather than buy the stock. I was rewarded handsomely (though if I were a bond pro I would have probably done much better).