Stocks

[davidrotts63]

Grrr RobinHood.

[as2]

Grrr RobinHood.

Never put all your eggs in one basket...

[ExGingi]

Smart money?

You mean that when the yield curve inverted a few months ago it predicted the recession then because it was so smart that it predicted this virus now a few months later?

Lol. Smart money. I’ll tell you what.

This virus is just a new recession-is-coming flavor of the year, and you’re falling for it.

When did the yield curve invert? There are some inverted segments, but it didn't fully invert and hasn't now. As a matter of fact IINM the 10-30 yr curve is slightly steeper now than it was a year ago. That being said, the entire curve is lower.

I might be falling for it, but so are some other people such as Mohamed El-Erian and others.

I didn't say I think it's time to short the market. I did say that it's a very risky time where I see more downside than upside potential, which is why I've moved into a larger cash position in my portfolios.

Though for some there are definitely opportunities in this market. High volatility is a gift for pros.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/02/mohamed-el-erian-lifts-his-do-not-buy-the-dip-warning-for-pros-only.html

Here's someone who might be saying something similar to you:
https://twitter.com/michaelbatnick/status/1233418188207067138

[cgr]

Grrr RobinHood.

Prepping for some major movement in the market once it comes back online

[cgr]

Grrr RobinHood.

Wondering what to make of todays gains and the fact that Robinhood (mostly amateur investors?) has been down...

[Ephraimh]

When did the yield curve invert? There are some inverted segments, but it didn't fully invert and hasn't now. As a matter of fact IINM the 10-30 yr curve is slightly steeper now than it was a year ago. That being said, the entire curve is lower.

I might be falling for it, but so are some other people such as Mohamed El-Erian and others.

I didn't say I think it's time to short the market. I did say that it's a very risky time where I see more downside than upside potential, which is why I've moved into a larger cash position in my portfolios.

Though for some there are definitely opportunities in this market. High volatility is a gift for pros.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/02/mohamed-el-erian-lifts-his-do-not-buy-the-dip-warning-for-pros-only.html

Here's someone who might be saying something similar to you:
https://twitter.com/michaelbatnick/status/1233418188207067138

Well then we just disagree, I think there is more upside from here than downside, even if you only have 6 months to wait.

And this Michael Batnick chart is gold! he’s totally right. Lol.

Btw, you should listen to his podcasts, he’s as sharp as they come. He’s a hidden gem in my opinion.   

He’s on with Josh Brown a lot on their firms podcast The Compound — https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-compound-show/id1456467014

And he has his own podcast with Ben Carlson (who’s also sharp as  a whip) Animal Spirits — https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/animal-spirits-podcast/id1310192007

[Kobe Bryant]

What makes you so confident that this sell off is entirely about the carnivorous and not an overdue correction due to weakness in the global economy overall? The Cornovirus definitely played a role in deteriorating further, but making absolute statements about the markets are a dangerous game.

You would have to explain, what changed in the fundamentals since January, other then Covid 19.

[ExGingi]

Well then we just disagree, I think there is more upside from here than downside, even if you only have 6 months to wait.

And this Michael Batnick chart is gold! he’s totally right. Lol.

Btw, you should listen to his podcasts, he’s as sharp as they come. He’s a hidden gem in my opinion.   

He’s on with Josh Brown a lot on their firms podcast The Compound — https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-compound-show/id1456467014

And he has his own podcast with Ben Carlson (who’s also sharp as  a whip) Animal Spirits — https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/animal-spirits-podcast/id1310192007

Batnick and Brown are both on Ritholtz's team. That's an excellent cool-headed team.

As for our disagreement, well, that's the beauty that makes the market work. If everyone was on the same side there would be no market! I am not totally out of the market, I just moved a larger portion into cash. 2008 was terrible, but it ended in March of 2009. When there's blood on the street, cash is king. I know people that made excellent buys in the real estate crash, and wwe all know Warren Buffet made some good deals with his pile of cash back then.

Looking at the Batnick chart reminds me of what I did during the BP Oil spill. At that point I thought BP was a buying opportunity, but given that I don't trust politicians, and I found a lot of it to be political, I was scared of the tail risk of the Obama administration forcing BP into bankruptcy, which is why I opted to invest in BP bonds rather than buy the stock. I was rewarded handsomely (though if I were a bond pro I would have probably done much better).

[aygart]

You would have to explain, what changed in the fundamentals since January, other then Covid 19.

Why does a correction need fundamentals to have changed?

[Ephraimh]

Batnick and Brown are both on Ritholtz's team. That's an excellent cool-headed team.

Yep the whole team there is superb. Cool-headed and sharp, every single one of them.

As for our disagreement, well, that's the beauty that makes the market work. If everyone was on the same side there would be no market! I am not totally out of the market, I just moved a larger portion into cash. 2008 was terrible, but it ended in March of 2009. When there's blood on the street, cash is king. I know people that made excellent buys in the real estate crash, and wwe all know Warren Buffet made some good deals with his pile of cash back then.

Looking at the Batnick chart reminds me of what I did during the BP Oil spill. At that point I thought BP was a buying opportunity, but given that I don't trust politicians, and I found a lot of it to be political, I was scared of the tail risk of the Obama administration forcing BP into bankruptcy, which is why I opted to invest in BP bonds rather than buy the stock. I was rewarded handsomely (though if I were a bond pro I would have probably done much better).

Agree on the cash point as a whole, but to compare this to 2008 -which means keep on selling now because this downtrend is only getting started- is wrong, the time to sell to accumulate dry powder was a month ago, not now, now is a time to buy.

[ExGingi]

Agree on the cash point as a whole, but to compare this to 2008 -which means keep on selling now because this downtrend is only getting started- is wrong,

I don't know. I'm not a trader, not sure about a downtrend. I see strong fundamental risks to businesses globally.

the time to sell to accumulate dry powder was a month ago, not now, now is a time to buy.

Agreed on the time to accumulate dry powder. Not sure if now is a time to buy (as a blanket statement. There are definitely bargains to be found. I also think it will be a bumpy ride ahead, no matter what direction it goes).

[shwarmabob]

it's just so convenient to start the chart in 2009. That's all I need to look at, lol

[ExGingi]

it's just so convenient to start the chart in 2009. That's all I need to look at, lol

As pointed out by some of the replies to the tweet.

The way I see things is that the bounce today (and other bullish sentiments expressed) are based on the expectation of the Fed (and other authorities, including the Chinese) to use several (major) tools heavy weapons to counter the inevitable downturn. The way I see it, the two "camps" are basically the "don't fight the Fed" camp, versus the "not only are those the wrong tools, but the downturn at this point is different because it's a major supply shock" camp (with a few more arguments for the latter camp).

[dealfinder11]

You would have to explain, what changed in the fundamentals since January, other then Covid 19.

You mean you are completely unaware of the damage already done to the global economy due to the virus? Could definitely tip the scales. Not making any statements or predictions, just expressing skepticism in response to everyone who thinks they know what is going on.

[ExGingi]

the time to sell to accumulate dry powder was a month ago, not now, now is a time to buy.

I must say that I'm really seeing the benefits of $0 commissions. Making small ETF or option trades in order to hedge positions becomes so much easier when one doesn't have to take trading costs into account.

[EliJelly]

I must say that I'm really seeing the benefits of $0 commissions. Making small ETF or option trades in order to hedge positions becomes so much easier when one doesn't have to take trading costs into account.

Using?

[ExGingi]

Using?

Options, leveraged ETFs. Or even just making tiny trades in an HSA that currently can't accept funding and has a small balance.

[EliJelly]

Options, leveraged ETFs. Or even just making tiny trades in an HSA that currently can't accept funding and has a small balance.

Meaning which financial inst?

[cgr]

Meaning which financial inst?

Almost all at this point.

[EliJelly]

Almost all at this point.

Heard so too, hope Chase will follow soon.