Author Topic: Stocks (Read 1199356 times)

good sam · « **Reply #4120 on:** March 27, 2020, 01:30:26 AM »

Quote from: ExGingi on March 26, 2020, 09:21:24 AM

Obviously. The question is when and how much come back. And jobless benefits are less than people's regular income IINM having an effect on the economy.

As often happens during recessions, many will never come back because employers realize they weren't necessary. This is generally a positive effect of a recession, companies learn how to be more efficient.

ltttc · « **Reply #4121 on:** March 30, 2020, 12:29:01 PM »

Can a/o explain why stocks are moving upward???

herb · « **Reply #4122 on:** March 30, 2020, 12:59:45 PM »

Quote from: ltttc on March 30, 2020, 12:29:01 PM

Can a/o explain why stocks are moving upward???

wondering the same. I thought they were predicting a bad week

aygart · « **Reply #4123 on:** March 30, 2020, 01:02:07 PM »

Quote from: herb on March 30, 2020, 12:59:45 PM

wondering the same. I thought they were predicting a bad week

Rule one in stock market investing:

If it is going to go down then it is already there.

ltttc · « **Reply #4124 on:** March 30, 2020, 01:31:33 PM »

Quote from: aygart on March 30, 2020, 01:02:07 PM

Rule one in stock market investing:

If it is going to go down then it is already there.

Yeh, but that makes no sense when some are expecting this to go on for 6,12 or even 18 months.

miles lover · « **Reply #4125 on:** March 30, 2020, 02:17:03 PM »

Quote from: aygart on March 30, 2020, 01:02:07 PM

Rule one in stock market investing:

If it is going to go down then it is already there.

Predicting a bad week is an exception though. No ? The markets weren’t opened for it to be down.

EliJelly · « **Reply #4126 on:** April 03, 2020, 12:17:14 PM »

Stimulus talk gains being wiped out today.

Zevwolf · « **Reply #4127 on:** April 03, 2020, 12:55:31 PM »

Quote from: EliJelly on April 03, 2020, 12:17:14 PM

Stimulus talk gains being wiped out today.

The Dow is still up more than 2500 points from the low.

EliJelly · « **Reply #4128 on:** April 03, 2020, 01:00:31 PM »

Quote from: Zevwolf on April 03, 2020, 12:55:31 PM

The Dow is still up more than 2500 points from the low.

Correct, I'm stuck at the travel related stocks, which were massively impacted from the stimulus package last week, and flushed everything down by now.

Lurker · « **Reply #4129 on:** April 06, 2020, 06:47:57 PM »

I'm confused. The explanation being given for the market rising now is that the confirmed cases and deaths have gone down in certain hotspots, so it's a sign they've got everything under control and we can be optimistic again. First of all, how are the money people coming to that conclusion when the medical and government are saying the worst is yet to come? Second, is there a point where the optimistic fantasies stop? If/when they do, is the crash caused by the subsequent panic mitigated by this recent optimism, or does it cause a greater overreaction?

EliJelly · « **Reply #4130 on:** April 06, 2020, 07:05:35 PM »

Was due to talks of reaching the peak.

yos9694 · « **Reply #4131 on:** April 07, 2020, 10:06:18 AM »

Quote from: Lurker on April 06, 2020, 06:47:57 PM

I'm confused. The explanation being given for the market rising now is that the confirmed cases and deaths have gone down in certain hotspots, so it's a sign they've got everything under control and we can be optimistic again. First of all, how are the money people coming to that conclusion when the medical and government are saying the worst is yet to come? Second, is there a point where the optimistic fantasies stop? If/when they do, is the crash caused by the subsequent panic mitigated by this recent optimism, or does it cause a greater overreaction?

"The worst" can mean different things. In the market though, the worst usually means when there is the most uncertainty. At this point many people think that the uncertainty is going down and the rest of the pandemic is more predictable. It will end, and things will go back to normal. In other places that it will pop up, it takes about a month to peak and then subside. Especially with NYC now putting this behind them, market optimism is back again (tbh, if Kansas had been the epicenter instead of NYC you can be sure the crash would have been much less dramatic).

That doesn't mean that the worst is over in terms of people getting the virus.

cgr · « **Reply #4132 on:** April 07, 2020, 02:39:35 PM »

Quote from: yos9694 on April 07, 2020, 10:06:18 AM

"The worst" can mean different things. In the market though, the worst usually means when there is the most uncertainty. At this point many people think that the uncertainty is going down and the rest of the pandemic is more predictable. It will end, and things will go back to normal. In other places that it will pop up, it takes about a month to peak and then subside. Especially with NYC now putting this behind them, market optimism is back again (tbh, if Kansas had been the epicenter instead of NYC you can be sure the crash would have been much less dramatic).

That doesn't mean that the worst is over in terms of people getting the virus.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-should-prepare-for-a-coronavirus-induced-vicious-spiral-more-than-twice-as-bad-as-the-financial-crisis-says-jp-morgan-2020-04-06

I'm with this guy... been saying it since the market started rising. Glad to see someone with more stature agrees.

CountValentine · « **Reply #4133 on:** April 07, 2020, 04:54:41 PM »

Quote from: cgr on April 07, 2020, 02:39:35 PM

I'm with this guy... been saying it since the market started rising. Glad to see someone with more stature agrees.

There are many out there that believe we have not seen the worse.

Zevwolf · « **Reply #4134 on:** April 13, 2020, 12:44:02 PM »

Quote from: CountValentine on April 07, 2020, 04:54:41 PM

There are many out there that believe we have not seen the worse.

Do you still believe the worse is still to come?

CountValentine · « **Reply #4135 on:** April 13, 2020, 01:16:14 PM »

Quote from: Zevwolf on April 13, 2020, 12:44:02 PM

Do you still believe the worse is still to come?

Yes. The question is will we fall into a depression?

Zevwolf · « **Reply #4136 on:** April 13, 2020, 01:21:41 PM »

Quote from: CountValentine on April 13, 2020, 01:16:14 PM

Yes. The question is will we fall into a depression?

What is the definition of a depression?
And why do you think that it will get worse if we reached the peak?

AsherO · « **Reply #4137 on:** April 13, 2020, 01:28:36 PM »

Quote from: Zevwolf on April 13, 2020, 01:21:41 PM

What is the definition of a depression?
And why do you think that it will get worse if we reached the peak?

1. Peak doesn’t mean it will drop off quickly, it can level and stay level for a while
2. Peak in current areas doesn’t mean national peak for places who’s spread hasn’t peaked yet.
3. Peak doesn’t mean no rebound, like what’s been reported in East Asia (ignore China, they’re liars anyway) in mid-late March
4. Peak infection/spread says nothing if it’s a result of economic shutdown that cannot yet be lifted without risking another (higher?) peak.
5. Long term effects on the economy, employment numbers, etc. are still TBD. Those will be affected for sure in the medium-term, the question is to what extent. Doomsayers are saying the government’s 2.2 trillion CARES Act/stimulus was too little, too late, not tricking down efficiently, and not going to make much of a difference.

CountValentine · « **Reply #4138 on:** April 13, 2020, 01:30:12 PM »

Quote from: Zevwolf on April 13, 2020, 01:21:41 PM

What is the definition of a depression?

A long and severe recession.

Quote from: Zevwolf on April 13, 2020, 01:21:41 PM

And why do you think that it will get worse if we reached the peak?

IMHO things like unemployment and bankruptcies will take some time to rebound.
Sure hope I am wrong.

EliJelly · « **Reply #4139 on:** April 13, 2020, 03:05:03 PM »

Can someone explain me why Amazon and Walmart are at a record high? During this crisis?? I understand they make good business these days by selling essentials, but how much more are they losing by not selling non essentials? When people are staying home people spend less on other things, couple that with a tanking economy when people have less money to spend. When is their quarter numbers being released?