Author Topic: Stocks  (Read 1199538 times)

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4220 on: April 30, 2020, 02:34:12 PM »
These are just my opinions i am not a professional

Even if you were a professional, all one can put out here is opinions.

Do you agree that there will be some permanent (or long-lasting) changes in behaviors? If the economy fully reopens, will all the laid-off people get rehired? As people got used to working from home, will there be less use of transportation? Will there be some kind of permanent "social distancing" reducing traffic? Will people's priorities change?

No one really knows, there's a lot of guesswork about the future. What we do (somewhat) know is the extent of the current economic contraction, and it's as ugly as it gets.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline Moshe_N

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4221 on: April 30, 2020, 02:35:42 PM »
What's everyones thoughts about investing in six flags?

Offline Abey

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4222 on: April 30, 2020, 02:53:34 PM »
Even if you were a professional, all one can put out here is opinions.

Do you agree that there will be some permanent (or long-lasting) changes in behaviors? If the economy fully reopens, will all the laid-off people get rehired? As people got used to working from home, will there be less use of transportation? Will there be some kind of permanent "social distancing" reducing traffic? Will people's priorities change?

No one really knows, there's a lot of guesswork about the future. What we do (somewhat) know is the extent of the current economic contraction, and it's as ugly as it gets.
I agree that there will be an economic fallout from this that is not evident in the current market, but permanent ? no. long lasting ? in some cases mostly not.

Will there be changes in the way we work/operate ? yes its constantly changing and maybe covid will give it a little push faster, but there will not be significant change the US economy in the near future.

Will all the laid off people get rehired ? no. a lot of people were working in weak/ancient industries and covid just accelerated its demise.   

Its easy to just say "its unknown" and stay out, that is true there are a lot of unknowns but think of companies you believe have a strong business model/growth potential they will eventually rebound.   

Online cgr

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4223 on: April 30, 2020, 03:08:10 PM »
long lasting ? in some cases mostly not.
I'm inclined to disagree.
History has never experience a full-stop economic shutdown where every benchmark such as spending, investing, average wages, imports, exports, etc etc was affected. I simply can't convince myself that there will be a limited price to pay, even though that's clearly what the markets want to believe.

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4224 on: April 30, 2020, 03:12:36 PM »
I'm inclined to disagree.
History has never experience a full-stop economic shutdown where every benchmark such as spending, investing, average wages, imports, exports, etc etc was affected. I simply can't convince myself that there will be a limited price to pay, even though that's clearly what the markets want to believe.

As I pointed out back in March, this time we have a combination of a supply shock and a demand shock. This isn't like anything we've seen probably since WW2 (and in certain industries, there was definitely an increase in demand during the war). Don't forget that all of this is on top of other issues that were problematic even beforehand, and couple that with a long at the tooth bull market and economic expansion.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline Abey

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4225 on: April 30, 2020, 03:13:59 PM »
I'm inclined to disagree.
History has never experience a full-stop economic shutdown where every benchmark such as spending, investing, average wages, imports, exports, etc etc was affected. I simply can't convince myself that there will be a limited price to pay, even though that's clearly what the markets want to believe.
I agree with you that the markets are lying now. By long lasting I mean at least 1 year

Offline Abey

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4226 on: April 30, 2020, 03:30:33 PM »
As I pointed out back in March, this time we have a combination of a supply shock and a demand shock. This isn't like anything we've seen probably since WW2 (and in certain industries, there was definitely an increase in demand during the war). Don't forget that all of this is on top of other issues that were problematic even beforehand, and couple that with a long at the tooth bull market and economic expansion.
Does not mean you have to stay out of the market. One can believe in supply shock and still see a future upside or that it is undervalued... do you still stand by your run to liquid in mid March ?

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4227 on: April 30, 2020, 06:24:53 PM »
do you still stand by your run to liquid in mid March ?

Can you point to where I said that? Browsing through the thread, I can't seem to find where I said that in mid March. The closest I can find is Feb. 27th where is said

Quote
IMHO the prudent thing to do is to stay on the sidelines. If one has some losses, holding onto them in hopes of recovering might end up in a painful lesson. Regardless of the current COVID-19 risk, the market was in place for a correction.

and in another post on the same date
Quote
I wrote that I think moving to the sidelines due to uncertainty is prudent.

and in yet another
Quote
Indeed, which is why getting out now might not be as hard or painful as it might be after an additional drop.

The market did indeed drop further after that, and IINM is still lower than it was then.

Then on Mar. 2 in response to someone saying that there are solid companies that are good buys, I commented:
Quote
If oversold to the point where P/E is low and/or dividend yield is high (but beware of value trap).

And I also wrote about my own portfolio in another quote on the same day:
Quote
I am not totally out of the market, I just moved a larger portion into cash. 2008 was terrible, but it ended in March of 2009. When there's blood on the street, cash is king.

In hindsight, I can tell you that had I liquidated also my holdings in some other companies, which are lower today, and bought into them a little above their March lows, I would be sitting on some handsome profits.

Where do we go from here? IDK. I personally think we will retest the March lows, but I could definitely be wrong. I do think we are still in for a bumpy ride.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline Ephraimh

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4228 on: April 30, 2020, 06:43:05 PM »
Ahh the March back and forths..  who’s volunteering to make a winners and losers list..

Offline cubicles

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4229 on: April 30, 2020, 06:44:29 PM »
Ahh the March back and forths..  who’s volunteering to make a winners and losers list..
I can do it for you

Offline grodnoking

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4230 on: April 30, 2020, 06:53:17 PM »
Ahh the March back and forths..  who’s volunteering to make a winners and losers list..
I put in on april 3/4 so I'm a clear winner tyh
First ever stock purchases.
I'm not who you think I am.

Offline Ephraimh

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4231 on: April 30, 2020, 08:08:41 PM »

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4232 on: April 30, 2020, 08:44:24 PM »
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline ExGingi

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I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline Ephraimh

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Offline Ephraimh

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4235 on: May 01, 2020, 11:36:44 AM »
I’m wondering how a portfolio would do if for the last two months each week the portfolio buys Monday at market open and sells Thursday before market close, essentially cutting out these apparent trend of Friday dumps.  Need a Ychart on this.

Offline yos9694

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4236 on: May 01, 2020, 04:04:56 PM »
Sell in May?


Well, you can't go away

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4237 on: May 01, 2020, 04:25:19 PM »
Well, you can't go away

Last I checked UA still flying to TLV and I can get 2 weeks free in a hotel.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline ilherman

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4238 on: May 02, 2020, 11:05:10 PM »
Warren Buffett announced today that his company sold 6 billion dollars in airline shares "at a loss"

Will this tank the airline stocks come Monday even further?
You can say what you think when you think what you say.

Offline mendy from lakewood

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4239 on: May 02, 2020, 11:17:38 PM »
Warren Buffett announced today that his company sold 6 billion dollars in airline shares "at a loss"

Will this tank the airline stocks come Monday even further?
probably
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