Author Topic: Stocks (Read 1210101 times)

Der Deutsche Jude · « **Reply #4360 on:** May 15, 2020, 03:14:16 PM »

Quote from: cgr on May 15, 2020, 02:47:27 PM

Correct, but in most cases (in my experience) you still come out ahead.

Not that individual experiences really matter, but on a theoretical level a knowledgeable option trader should come out somewhat ahead as the required returns are obviously greater for such tremendously risky instruments that options are. I’m questioning whether these times are necessarily a better time than others to trade options.

cgr · « **Reply #4361 on:** May 15, 2020, 03:54:15 PM »

Quote from: Der Deutsche Jude on May 15, 2020, 03:14:16 PM

Not that individual experiences really matter, but on a theoretical level a knowledgeable option trader should come out somewhat ahead as the required returns are obviously greater for such tremendously risky instruments that options are. I’m questioning whether these times are necessarily a better time than others to trade options.

If you got in in Feb before VIX shot up and out before end March then you had a good chance of seeing your worth doubled or tripled.

If you got in early March when VIX was already high and held positions past the drop, you're probably in trouble.

Now that VIX has come down a bit I think options are back to where they were with one major upside: we could be seeing a huge drop in the market in the next month or so, and if you're holding straddles (assuming you're not going for puts only so that you're protected either way), you'll be able to cash in on the drop without having to take a stance.

ROYA · « **Reply #4362 on:** May 17, 2020, 06:12:14 PM »

Ford? Seems like a good buy to me.

UAL and AAL too early to buy?? I want to buy in but scared may drop even more..

Lots of people are saying that the retail stores will not make it out... I'm back and forth if I want to buy in as it is very low at the moment.

Any input is appreciated!

cgr · « **Reply #4363 on:** May 17, 2020, 06:24:43 PM »

Quote from: ROYA on May 17, 2020, 06:12:14 PM

Ford? Seems like a good buy to me.

We might see a huge drop in car prices soon. Car prices are set by the used car market which has been unable to offload vehicles at a level to maintain prices. Same goes for car rental companies.

Iz · « **Reply #4364 on:** May 17, 2020, 06:27:39 PM »

Quote from: cgr on May 17, 2020, 06:24:43 PM

Car prices are set by the used car market which has been unable to offload vehicles at a level to maintain prices.

Please explain.

cgr · « **Reply #4365 on:** May 17, 2020, 06:42:41 PM »

Quote from: Iz on May 17, 2020, 06:27:39 PM

Please explain.

This does some of it:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/maryannkeller/2020/04/14/used-car-market-signals-delayed-recovery-for-auto-industry/

But in my opinion they don't stress the point of what too much used-car inventory does to the new-car market.
Here's a dumbed-down explanation: if you can get a new car (even with 0% APR) at 35k, but the pre-owned 2019 model is at 15k the decision becomes tougher to make. As used-car prices drop- which is inevitable when inventory is inflated- more consumers start opting for used and new cars are forced to compete.

ROYA · « **Reply #4366 on:** May 17, 2020, 06:53:18 PM »

Quote from: cgr on May 17, 2020, 06:42:41 PM

This does some of it:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/maryannkeller/2020/04/14/used-car-market-signals-delayed-recovery-for-auto-industry/

But in my opinion they don't stress the point of what too much used-car inventory does to the new-car market.
Here's a dumbed-down explanation: if you can get a new car (even with 0% APR) at 35k, but the pre-owned 2019 model is at 15k the decision becomes tougher to make. As used-car prices drop- which is inevitable when inventory is inflated- more consumers start opting for used and new cars are forced to compete.

Very good point, however they can still be making good margins. Are you saying you think the stock will drop even more?
I read an article that says Ford has enough cash to last another year without help from the government if things wouldn’t change..

ROYA · « **Reply #4367 on:** May 17, 2020, 06:58:14 PM »

Ford is known for their trucks and people tend to buy trucks when gas prices are down

cgr · « **Reply #4368 on:** May 17, 2020, 07:02:41 PM »

Quote from: ROYA on May 17, 2020, 06:53:18 PM

Very good point, however they can still be making good margins. Are you saying you think the stock will drop even more?
I read an article that says Ford has enough cash to last another year without help from the government if things wouldn’t change..

All I'm saying is that prices might not hold.
It's not about the cash on hand- it rarely ever is for stocks unless your thinking bankruptcy-it's about how much their profits will hurt. I'm not making a case that they won't come out of this, just that they might take a dip.

That being said I don't like taking a stance on either side so not sure why I got talking

Iz · « **Reply #4369 on:** May 17, 2020, 07:11:53 PM »

Quote from: cgr on May 17, 2020, 06:42:41 PM

This does some of it:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/maryannkeller/2020/04/14/used-car-market-signals-delayed-recovery-for-auto-industry/

But in my opinion they don't stress the point of what too much used-car inventory does to the new-car market.
Here's a dumbed-down explanation: if you can get a new car (even with 0% APR) at 35k, but the pre-owned 2019 model is at 15k the decision becomes tougher to make. As used-car prices drop- which is inevitable when inventory is inflated- more consumers start opting for used and new cars are forced to compete.

That makes sense. Thanks!

ilherman · « **Reply #4370 on:** May 17, 2020, 11:15:31 PM »

And dow futures are up 300 points! Until some lunatic is gonna say on TV that the market is too high...

davidrotts63 · « **Reply #4371 on:** May 17, 2020, 11:16:36 PM »

Quote from: ilherman on May 17, 2020, 11:15:31 PM

And dow futures are up 300 points! Until some lunatic is gonna say on TV that the market is too high...

The market is too high. Does that work?

coffeebean · « **Reply #4372 on:** May 17, 2020, 11:18:00 PM »

Quote from: davidrotts63 on May 17, 2020, 11:16:36 PM

The market is too high. Does that work?

Is your name Elon Musk?

EliJelly · « **Reply #4373 on:** May 17, 2020, 11:20:14 PM »

Quote from: avrohomgelb on May 17, 2020, 11:18:00 PM

Is your name Elon Musk?

Even Musk was humble enough to add "in my opinion"

miles lover · « **Reply #4374 on:** May 18, 2020, 12:30:51 AM »

Quote from: ilherman on May 17, 2020, 11:15:31 PM

And dow futures are up 300 points! Until some lunatic is gonna say on TV that the market is too high...

When the Dow was down you said that all your stocks were in the green. Not sure if you should be happy if you have negative beta.

EliJelly · « **Reply #4375 on:** May 18, 2020, 11:37:56 AM »

Very funny, Google finance keeps on showing stock values way off! All that I checked.

ilherman · « **Reply #4376 on:** May 18, 2020, 07:51:29 PM »

Here you go...

"Jim Cramer advises investors not to get too optimistic over Moderna vaccine progress"

Because his predictions that the market is going to crash didn't come through, he is trying to create it manually.

dsprod · « **Reply #4377 on:** May 18, 2020, 08:19:25 PM »

Guys, invest in pharmacuticals ASAP. their gonna jump as soon as a vaccine comes out!

coffeebean · « **Reply #4378 on:** May 18, 2020, 09:44:25 PM »

Quote from: dsprod on May 18, 2020, 08:19:25 PM

Guys, invest in pharmacuticals ASAP. their gonna jump as soon as a vaccine comes out!

What's your reputation?

Abey · « **Reply #4379 on:** May 19, 2020, 07:45:21 AM »

Quote from: ilherman on May 18, 2020, 07:51:29 PM

Here you go...

"Jim Cramer advises investors not to get too optimistic over Moderna vaccine progress"

Because his predictions that the market is going to crash didn't come through, he is trying to create it manually.

Don’t worry nobody takes that clown seriously. But on a serious note do you think that a drug will all of a sudden rewind thousands of closed business and laid off people?