Author Topic: Stocks  (Read 1179344 times)

Online CountValentine

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4540 on: June 05, 2020, 11:56:48 AM »
Blowout jobs report shows ‘big hedge fund guys’ got it wrong and the market was right, says Cramer
@cnbc
Now we are using Cramer as a source?  :)
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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4541 on: June 05, 2020, 12:02:11 PM »
Now we are using Cramer as a source?  :)
As an opinion?
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline ilherman

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4542 on: June 05, 2020, 12:05:13 PM »
Now we are using Cramer as someone stating facts.
FTFY
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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4543 on: June 05, 2020, 01:11:20 PM »
Il try to level set what is going on why we cant compare to prior traditional periods. the market mostly moves on technicals with to a lesser degree on fundamental values. Institutional investors will invest in the market when the risk adjusted return is greater than what can be gotten in safer bonds/collaterelized markets.

The drop in march was driven by a liquidity crunch from corps needing to get out of certain positions which caused bond markets to tank for lack of price discovery. Most large institutions were licking there chops at the possibilities to pick up IG bonds with 10-12% yields. This must make the the market fall. The fed first tried to drop rates to 0 but it did not help as spreads continued to widen. The fed very quickly then  (whether right or wrong) stabilized the market by buying bonds which caused spreads to tighten significantly.  this leaves corporations with very little options on where to invest so back to equities with crazy evaluations but still a better return than bonds with almost no yield. \

in other words, the market is being artificially being picked up by fed buying and if fed slows down on purchasing bonds or actual corps start to default(fed cant stop that) it will cause a steeper drop than wheat we have seen in March. The jobs number as well is driven by PPP money which forced companies to rehire employees.

Given that, ride the wind and be careful!! this can go on for a long time or reality can hit home within 1 quarter its anyone's guess. However i strongly suggest to invest in sectors you believe in instead of picking stocks. The returns have been outsized anyway and you wont be at risk that the one company you invested in releases dreadful news.
As the saying around this world PGFHGS

Offline Mf1

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4544 on: June 05, 2020, 01:33:46 PM »
For those interested, charles schwab has joined the ranks of those who offer fractional shares on a number of stocks.

Offline ilherman

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You can say what you think when you think what you say.

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4546 on: June 05, 2020, 01:56:01 PM »
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4547 on: June 05, 2020, 01:58:44 PM »
And...

https://twitter.com/n_yang/status/1268922043778469893

That "mistake" is as large as the pre-shutdown total claims number.

And the market rallies. There's lots of hot air elevating the markets, but the fundamentals are scary.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4548 on: June 05, 2020, 05:39:30 PM »
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4549 on: June 05, 2020, 06:36:40 PM »
https://twitter.com/econguyrosie/status/1268923502645608451

I mean, I'm not confident in this rally either, but that's a pretty myopic view.  Terribly so. It misses the forest for the trees. Entirely.

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4550 on: June 05, 2020, 06:55:39 PM »
I mean, I'm not confident in this rally either, but that's a pretty myopic view.  Terribly so. It misses the forest for the trees. Entirely.
https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1268904209652596736
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4551 on: June 05, 2020, 07:00:29 PM »
I mean, I'm a huge fan of Buffet, but those "robinhoodies" buying when Buffet sold would have yielded a lot of greenbacks if selling now.
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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4552 on: June 05, 2020, 07:03:45 PM »
I mean, I'm a huge fan of Buffet, but those "robinhoodies" buying when Buffet sold would have yielded a lot of greenbacks if selling now.
Can't argue with that. The only big variable in that statement is the "if".
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4553 on: June 05, 2020, 07:29:26 PM »
https://twitter.com/thebondfreak/status/1268981748047712257

Click tweet to see more.

The federal money being given out as well as PPP, EIDL and the ability to withdraw from qualified accounts and repay in 3 years without tax or penalty, is going towards paying down consumer debt.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline Der Deutsche Jude

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4554 on: June 07, 2020, 09:36:18 AM »
https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1268904209652596736
I had briefly considered JETS at one point before realizing their 0.60% expense ratio. Anyone know the justification for such a high fee? As a passively managed fund with only a few holdings, it should be easily replicated?

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4555 on: June 07, 2020, 11:45:43 AM »
https://twitter.com/thebondfreak/status/1268981748047712257

Click tweet to see more.

The federal money being given out as well as PPP, EIDL and the ability to withdraw from qualified accounts and repay in 3 years without tax or penalty, is going towards paying down consumer debt.
That and people staying at home and spending less
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4556 on: June 07, 2020, 12:02:39 PM »
That and people staying at home and spending less

As well as the ability to defer mortgage (and possibly other) payments without hit to credit. People are strategizing in order to have the most available credit once things loosen up again.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4557 on: June 07, 2020, 12:10:28 PM »
I don't know how many 'round here are old enough to remember the dot com mania of the late 90s. But this definitely seems to start sounding very much like it.

https://twitter.com/BillDjango3/status/1269135373524963329

and:

https://twitter.com/sentimentrader/status/1269256793445859328

While I'm sure there are countless other stories and anecdotes out there, I can think of two of my friends. One can tell the story of how is brokerage account back then was valued at over $1MM (for perspective - that's when a NY subway ride was $1.50, not $2.75 as it is today). That friend is virtually broke at this point. Another friend was lucky enough to bail out of the stock market at the time, and started investing in real estate, he is extremely wealthy today.

Tulipmania wasn't the first, and the dot com mania wasn't the last. Right now we have a liquidity induced asset price reflation. However, I just can't see the fundamentals supporting most of this.

Here's another tweet for some perspective:
https://twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1268988665088430087
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4558 on: June 07, 2020, 12:13:43 PM »
It just depends how far the Fed(s) will go, and people are betting Trump will stop at nothing to win the reelection.
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Re: Stocks
« Reply #4559 on: June 07, 2020, 12:15:52 PM »
It just depends how far the Fed(s) will go, and people are betting Trump will stop at nothing to win the reelection.

Which can only make the bubble larger, and the pop more painful.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan