Author Topic: Stocks  (Read 605756 times)

Offline simplicity

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #5840 on: June 18, 2021, 07:14:02 PM »
Anyone buying into this? or have a opinion?
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Offline ExGingi

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #5841 on: June 19, 2021, 11:21:03 PM »
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline Lurker

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #5842 on: June 20, 2021, 12:22:39 PM »
Re CCXI, the CEO will be participating in Raymond James' Human Health Innovations Conference on Wednesday. I'm not familiar with these things, so I don't know if anything of value will be said.

Also, https://seekingalpha.com/article/4426475-chemocentryx-crl-likely. Interesting to note on his point regarding insider buys, the CFO of CCXI bought 85k shares last week.. (Looked closer at the source, and it looks like my info was wrong. There was a transaction, but different than reported: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1340652/000120919121041091/xslF345X03/doc4.xml)

Long story short, complete gamble and no one knows what's going to happen.
« Last Edit: June 20, 2021, 12:45:28 PM by Lurker »
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Offline sguitarist18

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #5843 on: June 27, 2021, 03:28:13 PM »
At what point would you sell CCXI?

Offline Essen est zich

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #5844 on: June 27, 2021, 03:28:29 PM »
Any thoughts about hertz?

Offline yos9694

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #5845 on: June 28, 2021, 01:13:02 PM »
At what point would you sell CCXI?

Took a closer look at this since it's already been mentioned here so many times, and it looks similar to a whole list of other beaten down stocks with true believers. They are always certain that the stock price is held down because of "haters" and "shorts", who are all wrong, and the stock will certainly revert to its true value when a specific event occurs on a specific date. With this type of stock, I'd definitely get rid of any shares at least a day before "The Event". With this stock it's predicted for next Tuesday, so.... by Monday at the latest.

[Note- its not that recovery never happens like this, it does happen, but in 99 out of 100 cases it's just a bunch of pre-crash shareholders who haven't come to terms with their loss yet, and are latching on to the 1 in 100 stock that came back dramatically. Inevitably when the date of "The Event" passes without recovery they will announce that it is just deferred and a new date will be predicted.]

Offline Lurker

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #5846 on: June 28, 2021, 01:39:07 PM »
At what point would you sell CCXI?
Took a closer look at this since it's already been mentioned here so many times, and it looks similar to a whole list of other beaten down stocks with true believers. They are always certain that the stock price is held down because of "haters" and "shorts", who are all wrong, and the stock will certainly revert to its true value when a specific event occurs on a specific date. With this type of stock, I'd definitely get rid of any shares at least a day before "The Event". With this stock it's predicted for next Tuesday, so.... by Monday at the latest.

[Note- its not that recovery never happens like this, it does happen, but in 99 out of 100 cases it's just a bunch of pre-crash shareholders who haven't come to terms with their loss yet, and are latching on to the 1 in 100 stock that came back dramatically. Inevitably when the date of "The Event" passes without recovery they will announce that it is just deferred and a new date will be predicted.]

"The Event" is scheduled for Wednesday, and I believe the markets are closed on Monday for July 4. There are 3 possible outcomes on July 7 (barring an unscheduled event or news, which is always possible): approval, denial, or extension. Based on research I've done, it seems many experts think that the news on July 7 is likely a non-decision, or an extension in the approval process for Avocopan. The possibilities are all over the place. The stock price has been pretty volatile, and has been guided over the last month plus by pure speculation and little real data. The safest play is locking in profits before news. If the application is denied, the price plummets. If it's approved, it likely soars. If an extension is granted, your guess is as good as anyone else's. Confidence can drop in the short-term, possibly leading to massive drops we've seen CCXI capable of before. Confidence can remain steady because, "They didn't say no..." It can rise, as per Raymond James' analysis. RJ has approval at 50-50 odds for July 7, but increase the odds to 70-30 for approval with an extension. (Full disclosure: RJ holds CCXI stock, and has recently increased their position.) Or it can do any combination of those things.

No one knows what will happen with this stock, so no one can really really give any solid advice. It really depends on your positions and your appetite for risk.
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Offline yos9694

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #5847 on: June 28, 2021, 02:39:35 PM »
"The Event" is scheduled for Wednesday, and I believe the markets are closed on Monday for July 4.

Thanks for correcting me... I meant first working day of the week, so Tues/Wed instead of Mon/Tues. Agree with your other points, which all boil down to risk preferences. Personally I'd rather lock in before the news because statistically that's the better play (x% of the time the news will precede a drop + (1-x)% of the time the news will cause a pop) and I'd rather consistently take the small wins than gamble for big wins.

Offline Lurker

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #5848 on: June 28, 2021, 02:44:18 PM »
Thanks for correcting me... I meant first working day of the week, so Tues/Wed instead of Mon/Tues. Agree with your other points, which all boil down to risk preferences. Personally I'd rather lock in before the news because statistically that's the better play (x% of the time the news will precede a drop + (1-x)% of the time the news will cause a pop) and I'd rather consistently take the small wins than gamble for big wins.

I think a large number of the people who bought into CCXI after the drops (either the first or the second) are in it for a home run. It will be interesting to see how they react to an extension. Also of note, Avocopan is also up for European approval, although there is no known date for that news (that I could find).
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Offline ckmk47

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #5849 on: June 28, 2021, 09:33:54 PM »
CCXI vs BIIB


Biogen's drug was voted down by the committee and because of political pressure, the FDA approved it anyway.  3 committee members resigned over it.


CCXI's drug was recommended by the committee, but by a slim margin. So many 'quick in and outers' and others sold out.
The drug will likely be approved (no guarantees) at the full FDA meeting on Wednesday.


I expect it to spike at the open on Thursday and then moderate during the day. So I intend to sell out first thing on Thursday. 


Offline Lurker

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #5850 on: June 28, 2021, 09:44:49 PM »
The drug will likely be approved (no guarantees) at the full FDA meeting on Wednesday.

What are you basing this on?
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Offline ckmk47

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #5851 on: June 28, 2021, 09:51:47 PM »
What are you basing this on?
A) The committee recommended it (by a slim margin, but did recommended it.)
B) My doctor friend understands this particular drug and its trial data.
He's been watching the drug approval process on and off for years and this is his opinion.

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #5852 on: June 28, 2021, 10:05:58 PM »
A) The committee recommended it (by a slim margin, but did recommended it.)
B) My doctor friend understands this particular drug and its trial data.
He's been watching the drug approval process on and off for years and this is his opinion.

I don't know enough to say if you're right or wrong, but to your points:
A) the committee was actually split 9-9 on the effectiveness of the drug, and voted 10-8 on safety and on benefits outweighing the risks. The overall complaint was that the data was too murky to come to a conclusive decision.
B) the drug may very well pass, but that doesn't mean it will get approved on July 7. I have yet to find one analyst, including those who are invested in the company itself, express confidence that it will be approved July 7. A common scenario being offered is that the FDA will push off the decision, giving everyone more time to get clearer data and/or address the issues with the data they have. The CEO had a public "fireside chat" at the Raymond James Human Health Innovations Conference, and while he didn't say anything outright, those who read between the lines came away with the impression that they are working with the FDA, but a decision may not come right away.

To be clear, I'm not saying you're wrong. I have no clue. I just think that confidence in an immediate decision should probably be based on more than a doctor believing the drug is good. Aside from there being many more factors to an FDA decision, the timing of the decision is very hard to nail down.

ETA: I'd be remiss if I didn't also thank you for putting this stock on my radar. It was a great find (so far) and much appreciated!

ETA2: as always, everyone should do their own research. DDF doesn't count.
« Last Edit: June 28, 2021, 10:10:46 PM by Lurker »
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Offline dovy2

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #5853 on: June 28, 2021, 10:10:05 PM »
What about the lawsuit? Does that say anything? Or stam a hack?

Offline ckmk47

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #5854 on: June 28, 2021, 11:31:54 PM »
Lurker:
The data so far is promising enough.  It isn't harmful; it may help treat the disease.
This disease doesn't have any effective drugs treating it yet, so the upside is big.
I can certainly understand your reluctance to count on an approval after the July 7 meeting.


Offline Shmulie

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #5855 on: June 28, 2021, 11:46:55 PM »
This disease doesn't have any effective drugs treating it yet, so the upside is big.

I asked a relative of mine who is a Dr. about this stock and the drug and he said this disease doesn't have any effective drug treating it yet but the disease is very rare and this drug shouldn't be a huge moneymaker, and even if it is approved by the FDA the insurance companies may not pay for it since it was highly controversial and not enough trials were done to prove it effective.

Bottom line he thinks it's very likely the FDA will send it back for more trials.

He said he personally would stay away from this stock

Offline Lurker

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #5856 on: June 28, 2021, 11:56:11 PM »
I asked a relative of mine who is a Dr. about this stock and the drug and he said this disease doesn't have any effective drug treating it yet but the disease is very rare and this drug shouldn't be a huge moneymaker, and even if it is approved by the FDA the insurance companies may not pay for it since it was highly controversial and not enough trials were done to prove it effective.

Bottom line he thinks it's very likely the FDA will send it back for more trials.

He said he personally would stay away from this stock

The stock was trading at around $70 at one point, so there is significant upside at its current price if it's approved, whether they end up making a lot of money on the drug or none at all. Getting sent back for more trials isn't necessarily a bad thing, either.
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Offline Shmulie

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #5857 on: June 29, 2021, 12:02:02 AM »
The stock was trading at around $70 at one point, so there is significant upside at its current price if it's approved, whether they end up making a lot of money on the drug or none at all. Getting sent back for more trials isn't necessarily a bad thing, either.

I said the same thing, but he said the drop in market cap doesn't make sense based on how much they they can actually make off that drug, so I'm not sure maybe the sell off was overreacting or maybe the company was way overvalued and the FDA news popped the bubble.

Getting sent back is a pretty bad thing as it could take years to do more trials (which also may not produce the results they want) and a lot of money

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #5858 on: June 29, 2021, 12:04:58 AM »
Getting sent back is a pretty bad thing as it could take years to do more trials (which also may not produce the results they want) and a lot of money

That doesn't make it a bad investment opportunity  ;)
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Offline Shmulie

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #5859 on: June 29, 2021, 09:20:53 AM »
That doesn't make it a bad investment opportunity  ;)
I'd have to disagree

Maybe a good gambling opportunity  ???