A) The committee recommended it (by a slim margin, but did recommended it.)
B) My doctor friend understands this particular drug and its trial data.
He's been watching the drug approval process on and off for years and this is his opinion.
I don't know enough to say if you're right or wrong, but to your points:
A) the committee was actually split 9-9 on the effectiveness of the drug, and voted 10-8 on safety and on benefits outweighing the risks. The overall complaint was that the data was too murky to come to a conclusive decision.
B) the drug may very well pass, but that doesn't mean it will get approved on July 7. I have yet to find one analyst, including those who are invested in the company itself, express confidence that it will be approved July 7. A common scenario being offered is that the FDA will push off the decision, giving everyone more time to get clearer data and/or address the issues with the data they have. The CEO had a public "fireside chat" at the Raymond James Human Health Innovations Conference, and while he didn't say anything outright, those who read between the lines came away with the impression that they are working with the FDA, but a decision may not come right away.
To be clear, I'm not saying you're wrong. I have no clue. I just think that confidence in an immediate decision should probably be based on more than a doctor believing the drug is good. Aside from there being many more factors to an FDA decision, the timing of the decision is very hard to nail down.
ETA: I'd be remiss if I didn't also thank you for putting this stock on my radar. It was a great find (so far) and much appreciated!
ETA2: as always, everyone should do their own research. DDF doesn't count.