Indeed. As im sure (no pun intended) you understood that the sure profit is on the price of the stock and the if is on the likelihood of the deal going through. There are people that would bet on elon musks ability to get things done faster than bet on the price of a single stock, so while youre correct that the deal might not go through that probably wasnt his concern.
Even if the deal doesn't go through, the very visible process that brought the TWTR board to its knees, made dorsey get his nose brown, and changed twitter policy have already in effect probably accomplished most of what Musk intended. Does he still need to follow through? The man is a massive troll and I don't think he's actually interested in running the company as much as he's interested in a free license to tweet whatever he pleases.
I will neither say I told you so, nor be even remotely surprised, if the buyout does not get completed.