Stocks

[yos9694]

Where do you see that?

Both nasdaqtrader and nyse show current trading halts

[dealmaster]

It is now frcb and trading at $.38

[sguitarist18]

Anyone know anything about MCRB? They apparently just got approved for the only pill to treat C. Diff, but stock price doesn't seem to have climbed.

[ckmk47]

Anyone know anything about MCRB? They apparently just got approved for the only pill to treat C. Diff, but stock price doesn't seem to have climbed.

The drug will likely be a hit.
Had earnings announcement right after the FDA approval.

MCRB doesn't have the capacity to produce and distribute the drug.  But they're partnered with *I don't remember*, a larger drug firm.  Or it will be sold.
It's a buy and hold. 

But: there are other companies working on similar drugs, so they may not be the exclusive drug for this for extremely long.
And this is not a short term 'pop' situation.

[sguitarist18]

They went up a bit since I bought. I only bought about $300, and it's gone up about 10%. Exposure isn't tremendous, so if you think it'll grow over time, I'll hang onto it.

I think they're partnering with Nestle.

[dealmaster]

The drug will likely be a hit.
Had earnings announcement right after the FDA approval.

MCRB doesn't have the capacity to produce and distribute the drug.  But they're partnered with *I don't remember*, a larger drug firm.  Or it will be sold.
It's a buy and hold. 

But: there are other companies working on similar drugs, so they may not be the exclusive drug for this for extremely long.
And this is not a short term 'pop' situation.

First of all, thank you! Second- what do you suppose the general time frame is( you wrote buy and hold, how long)? Thanks again

[ckmk47]

First of all, thank you! Second- what do you suppose the general time frame is( you wrote buy and hold, how long)? Thanks again

months, many.

[ckmk47]

This is pure spec.  Play money only.

Intercept Pharmaceuticals – ICPT
New drug. FDA committee announcement Wed, 5/17.  Full FDA announcement Fri, 5/19.
In favor of FDA approval:  This drug treats stage 1 HOST (fatty liver caused by being fat not alcoholic).  There is no other treatment for HOST. The reports are decently definitive this time.
But it’s not a sure thing because: It only treats stage 1, not the more problematic higher stages. This drug has been up before the FDA before and they sent it back for more research.

The company has been very volatile in the last year.  Lower than $12 and higher than $20 on bad earnings and prior FDA non-approval.   

If it's approved it may go up as much as $4.  If not, it may go down as much as $4.
I'm thinking of buying both a call and put for June 16. Then either way I make money: if it swings far enough.

Any other ideas?

[DealJew]

This is pure spec.  Play money only.

Intercept Pharmaceuticals – ICPT
New drug. FDA committee announcement Wed, 5/17.  Full FDA announcement Fri, 5/19.
In favor of FDA approval:  This drug treats stage 1 HOST (fatty liver caused by being fat not alcoholic).  There is no other treatment for HOST. The reports are decently definitive this time.
But it’s not a sure thing because: It only treats stage 1, not the more problematic higher stages. This drug has been up before the FDA before and they sent it back for more research.

The company has been very volatile in the last year.  Lower than $12 and higher than $20 on bad earnings and prior FDA non-approval.   

If it's approved it may go up as much as $4.  If not, it may go down as much as $4.
I'm thinking of buying both a call and put for June 16. Then either way I make money: if it swings far enough.

Any other ideas?

Are you confident in a swing in either way?

[ExGingi]

Are you confident in a swing in either way?

What difference does it make?

Are you going to take action based on the confidence level of a poster on an anonymous forum?

And if that person would be confident, what does that mean? Does that person control the way the market will react? Does anyone know?

You were given information, do your own research and make your own decisions. Poster said what they consider as a strategy. If it were guaranteed to make money they would put huge sums into it. I am sure that is not the case. It is speculation, even if it is based on some information and hunches.

[ckmk47]

Are you confident in a swing in either way?

Taking into account what ExGingi said.
It's now about $16. In the last year it's swung $4 higher and lower than that.  That's why I'm guessing it may swing that much.
I'm also asking for a strategy to make money off that guess.

[joeberg]

It's called a strangle. It would cost you approximately 1.25-1.75 for the May 19 expiration.

[ckmk47]

It's called a strangle. It would cost you approximately 1.25-1.75 for the May 19 expiration.

Thank you.
May 19 is too early.  The announcement will be that day.  Too early for the stock to move in time for the option.  So it has to be June 16,
I was thinking of what I now know is a straddle. It may cost 3.55, so I only  make money if
1) it moves $4 or more in either direction.
2) I catch it at the height of the big move.

[madhocker]

Another option would be to purchase the stock outright, and buy protective puts to protect against any downward movement.

[ckmk47]

Another option would be to purchase the stock outright, and buy protective puts to protect against any downward movement.

This only protects from downward movement.  Doesn't let me take advantage of it. this stock may swing either way.  Depends on the news.

[madhocker]

This only protects from downward movement.  Doesn't let me take advantage of it. this stock may swing either way.  Depends on the news.

Trying to take advantage of price movements in both directions is risky business... If you were to buy the straddle for 3.55 you would need the stock to move close to 20% in either direction to be profitable. Not saying it wont, but understand the risk.

If you do decide to go for a straddle, I would recommend waiting closer to the event date to purchase. The stock may move the 20% on the news, but you may not be at the right strike price anymore...

[ckmk47]

This is pure spec.  Play money only.

Intercept Pharmaceuticals – ICPT
New drug. FDA committee announcement Wed, 5/17.  Full FDA announcement Fri, 5/19.
In favor of FDA approval:  This drug treats stage 1 HOST (fatty liver caused by being fat not alcoholic).  There is no other treatment for HOST. The reports are decently definitive this time.
But it’s not a sure thing because: It only treats stage 1, not the more problematic higher stages. This drug has been up before the FDA before and they sent it back for more research.

The company has been very volatile in the last year.  Lower than $12 and higher than $20 on bad earnings and prior FDA non-approval.   

If it's approved it may go up as much as $4.  If not, it may go down as much as $4.
I'm thinking of buying both a call and put for June 16. Then either way I make money: if it swings far enough.

Any other ideas?

The FDA committee highlighted the liver toxicity of the drug.
Down below $12 this morning.

[yos9694]

The FDA committee highlighted the liver toxicity of the drug.
Down below $12 this morning.

Good call. Didn't join you this time just following

[ckmk47]

The FDA committee highlighted the liver toxicity of the drug.
Down below $12 this morning.

It closed at $13.83. 
My doctor friend reads the FDA committee report differently than the crowd. He thinks that despite the liver toxicity it WILL be approved by the FDA on Friday. 
Same rule: play money.  But now that it went down and recovered a bit, tomorrow might be a day to chance a buy. 

[yos9694]

It closed at $13.83. 
My doctor friend reads the FDA committee report differently than the crowd. He thinks that despite the liver toxicity it WILL be approved by the FDA on Friday. 
Same rule: play money.  But now that it went down and recovered a bit, tomorrow might be a day to chance a buy.

Sold your put and held your call?