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« Last edited by jj1000 on May 17, 2017, 10:02:20 AM »

Author Topic: NHL Master Thread  (Read 394321 times)

Offline CountValentine

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Re: NHL Master Thread
« Reply #3160 on: March 14, 2023, 10:33:55 PM »
Anyone see the pattern with Kane/Rangers?  :)
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline NTorch

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Re: NHL Master Thread
« Reply #3161 on: March 15, 2023, 10:23:50 AM »
Anyone see the pattern with Kane/Rangers?  :)
That he had a goal and an assist but was still minus 1?

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Re: NHL Master Thread
« Reply #3162 on: March 15, 2023, 10:31:25 AM »
That he had a goal and an assist but was still minus 1?
What happens every time he scores?  :)
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

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Re: NHL Master Thread
« Reply #3163 on: March 15, 2023, 10:37:57 AM »
What happens every time he scores?  :)

That's nice, but we win games even when he does not score.

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Re: NHL Master Thread
« Reply #3164 on: March 15, 2023, 11:11:51 AM »
That's nice, but we win games even when he does not score.
I must have missed it. Which game was that?
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

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Re: NHL Master Thread
« Reply #3165 on: March 15, 2023, 11:49:05 AM »
I must have missed it. Which game was that?

Typo - we need to win games even when Kane does not score.

Offline yuneeq

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Re: NHL Master Thread
« Reply #3166 on: March 15, 2023, 07:21:33 PM »
That he had a goal and an assist but was still minus 1?

Plus minus as a stat has been retired by knowledgable NHL fans many years ago

What happens every time he scores?  :)

Nice, didn't notice this. But to be honest he had a slow adjustment and looks better with each game, his last game looking his finest.
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Offline CountValentine

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Re: NHL Master Thread
« Reply #3167 on: March 15, 2023, 07:30:29 PM »
Plus minus as a stat has been retired by knowledgable NHL fans many years ago
I wouldn't say that. I watched Kane and Toews their whole careers. +/- is accurate.
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline yuneeq

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Re: NHL Master Thread
« Reply #3168 on: March 15, 2023, 08:34:11 PM »
I wouldn't say that. I watched Kane and Toews their whole careers. +/- is accurate.

On an individual game level itís useless. Even at the season level itís mostly useless and can be a product of your team. If a player scores 50 power play points itís as if it never happened. If you already know that someone is terrible on D based on the eye test then it can help you confirm it if their number is much worse than their teammates on the season.

There are many better ways to measure overall contribution, such as shot metrics, xGF%, and more.

https://www.arcticicehockey.com/2014/6/5/5602668/why-plus-minus-is-the-worst-statistic-in-hockey

https://hockey-graphs.com/2016/11/01/behind-the-numbers-why-plusminus-is-the-worst-statistic-in-hockey-and-should-be-abolished/

 
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Re: NHL Master Thread
« Reply #3169 on: March 15, 2023, 09:07:37 PM »
On an individual game level itís useless. Even at the season level itís mostly useless and can be a product of your team. If a player scores 50 power play points itís as if it never happened. If you already know that someone is terrible on D based on the eye test then it can help you confirm it if their number is much worse than their teammates on the season.

There are many better ways to measure overall contribution, such as shot metrics, xGF%, and more.

https://www.arcticicehockey.com/2014/6/5/5602668/why-plus-minus-is-the-worst-statistic-in-hockey

https://hockey-graphs.com/2016/11/01/behind-the-numbers-why-plusminus-is-the-worst-statistic-in-hockey-and-should-be-abolished/
They can play with numbers all they want. With Toews and Kane it is 100% accurate.
Everyone would say Kane is the better player. Toews had a massive drop-off late in his career. Leading up to and including the three cups many would still say Kane was better. I am not so sure.
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

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Re: NHL Master Thread
« Reply #3170 on: March 15, 2023, 10:30:56 PM »
Why are the sens worth so much?


Also it seems that Ryan Reynolds is selling of mint mobile to buy the team.

Offline yuneeq

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Re: NHL Master Thread
« Reply #3171 on: March 15, 2023, 11:01:06 PM »
They can play with numbers all they want. With Toews and Kane it is 100% accurate.
Everyone would say Kane is the better player. Toews had a massive drop-off late in his career. Leading up to and including the three cups many would still say Kane was better. I am not so sure.

You donít have to play with numbers, the numbers are worthless. In fact I trust your eye test 100x more than a useless stat. I believe you when you say he been bad defensively. I can imagine heís been bad offensively as well. I do think he has it in him to play better on a far improved team that has meaningful games to play for this season.

Would you rather have Ryan Lindgren in 2023 with a +27 or Panarin and Kane in 2015 with a combined +25?

Would you need to know that Kane scored 106 points and won the Art Ross trophy to realize that his +17 stat is completely meaningless?
« Last Edit: March 15, 2023, 11:04:19 PM by yuneeq »
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Re: NHL Master Thread
« Reply #3172 on: March 15, 2023, 11:39:34 PM »
Would you rather have Ryan Lindgren in 2023 with a +27 or Panarin and Kane in 2015 with a combined +25?
When you are talking about different players on different teams there are a lot of variables.
Would you need to know that Kane scored 106 points and won the Art Ross trophy to realize that his +17 stat is completely meaningless?
All that tells me is he had a great offensive year. 
What stat do you use to know what a liability a player is?
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

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Re: NHL Master Thread
« Reply #3173 on: March 16, 2023, 02:07:32 AM »
What stat do you use to know what a liability a player is?

5v5 Goals for %, 5v5 expected goals for %, 5v5 Shot attempts for/against and shot attempts % in close games, offensive zone shift % (bad defensive players often get sheltered by taking more face offs in o-zone), high danger chances for/against, compare any of these stats to teammates.

Some analysts will posts stats that show Player X stats with Player Y and without Player Y. Repeat this for the team and you can weed out which players are doing the heavy lifting and which ones are pulling everyone else down, even if their solo stats otherwise seem fine.

Another misleading stat is giveaways, the best players often have the most giveaways as they usually posses the puck the most and try to make the most plays. Pastarnak, Marner, Kucherov, Draisaitl, and Mcdavid are all in top 11.
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Re: NHL Master Thread
« Reply #3174 on: March 16, 2023, 06:42:02 AM »
5v5 Goals for %, 5v5 expected goals for %,
These show offensive stats and not what a liability a player is, no?
Compared to this one that makes sense:
5v5 Shot attempts for/against
offensive zone shift % (bad defensive players often get sheltered by taking more face offs in o-zone),
What about defensive zone shift %? That is way more important to know if a player is a liability. Again, you are only looking at half the picture.

What about something like shift % on powerplay for/against?

What site are you using for these stats?
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline yuneeq

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Re: NHL Master Thread
« Reply #3175 on: March 16, 2023, 10:01:48 AM »
These show offensive stats and not what a liability a player is, no

No, this number measures what percentage of ALL goals are scored by your team when you are on the ice at 5v5, and would be a % anywhere between 0-100, an average player would expect to be 50%, great players are in the 60% range. If a great offensive player is in the 40% range (and not better than their teammates) then you know they are leaking goals defensively. ETA: To put it simply, if your team scores 40 goals with you on the ice, and gives up 60, you will have a 40% goals for %, and youíre doing something wrong on defense.

Something to note, in general - defensive play is a bit harder to measure directly, a great offensive player can dominate possession so thoroughly, that even mediocre defensive play wouldnít bring their goals for % to bad territory - aka the best defense is great offenseĒ. The opposite is also true, great defensive players that are a black hole on offense will look bad overall with these stats.

Quote
What about defensive zone shift %? That is way more important to know if a player is a liability. Again, you are only looking at half the picture.

That is also important, I didnít mean to negate that. If you have 2 players with similar goals/assists, but one has more dzone face offs and fewer ozone face offs, then you know the coach trusts him defensively and that he is a better contributor to the team overall. The other player needs to get sheltered to limit his liability.

Quote
What about something like shift % on powerplay for/against?

You wouldnít lump power play and PK together as they have different strategies and personnel. For power play - if a player is contributing nicely on the PP, it shouldnít be discounted (it often is completely ignored) even if the player isnít great at 5v5. You need players that come up big with the man advantage. PP points and PP TOI (compared to team) are both good indicators of how much they contribute on the PP.

On the PK - great offensive players do not play the PK unless they are really good on defense. These are the guys that chip in all over the ice in all situations and have the most positive impact on a team. For the Rangers this is Fox and Zibanejad. For the Blackhawks of yore this was Toews and Keith. Often you have Norris candidates with no PK time, when voters see that they count it as a big red flag. on the PK side itís far easier to measure with the eye test, itís hard to measure statistically as they are playing down a man and much of the impact comes from the strategy side. However a good PKer will be trusted by the coach eating a lot of minutes on the PK.

Quote
What site are you using for these stats?

There are a number of sites that either provide these stats or create analysis of teams and players using these stats for context. That includes NHL.com, moneypuck, the Athletic, hockeyreference, natural stat trick, etc. I usually donít go to these sites directly, rather I follow Reddit /r/hockey and /r/rangers and many posts link to analysis on other sites. Just one thing Iíd say - advanced stats in hockey will never be as simple as the low event, predictable outcome of a baseball at bat. Hockey is fluid, with both offense and defense happening simultaneously and switching on a dime, the puck caroms and bounces often in unpredictable ways, and often good/bad teammates can hide the impact of the individual.

The best writers donít just rely on a single metric to tell a story, they watch the games intensely, use stats with the context of other stats, and also use advanced stats to point out something that can be easy to miss even when watching closely. It can be something as small as successful defensive zone exits, whether it was by skating it out or an outlet pass - great defensive players are confident with the puck to skate it out, and do it successfully at a high clip - and the same for offensive zone entries.
« Last Edit: March 16, 2023, 10:19:14 AM by yuneeq »
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Re: NHL Master Thread
« Reply #3176 on: March 16, 2023, 10:09:58 AM »
No, this number measures what percentage of ALL goals are scored by your team when you are on the ice at 5v5, and would be a % anywhere between 0-100, an average player would expect to be 50%, great players are in the 60% range. If a great offensive player is in the 40% range (and not better than their teammates) then you know they are leaking goals defensively.
Maybe I am misunderstanding. You are just talking about goals scored by a team, correct. It has nothing to do with goals given up by your team?
That is also important, I didnít mean to negate that. If you have 2 players with similar goals/assists, but one has more dzone face offs and fewer ozone face offs, then you know the coach trusts him defensively and that he is a better contributor to the team overall. The other player needs to get sheltered to limit his liability.
I would expect comparable players that the one with more ozone face offs would have more points/goals. This is Toews and Kane.
On the PK - great offensive players do not play the PK unless they are really good on defense. These are the guys that chip in all over the ice in all situations and have the most positive impact on a team.
Again this is Toews and Kane.

This is what the +/- shows about these two players but you say it is useless. Kane is better offensively but sucks on defensive. Toews is good offensively and great on defense.  The +/- should be higher for Toews and it is.
« Last Edit: March 16, 2023, 10:19:07 AM by CountValentine »
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

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Re: NHL Master Thread
« Reply #3177 on: March 16, 2023, 10:10:54 AM »
Maybe I am misunderstanding. You are just talking about goals scored by a team, correct. It has nothing to do with goals given up by your team?

See my ETA
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Re: NHL Master Thread
« Reply #3178 on: March 16, 2023, 10:21:24 AM »
See my ETA
Ok got it. Where do I find this stat. I am guessing Toews will be better than Kane.
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Re: NHL Master Thread
« Reply #3179 on: March 16, 2023, 10:31:22 AM »
What do you think about the goals +/- for the team, worthless?
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half