Topic Wiki

Editor’s note: I know enough about this topic to be dangerous, but I’m not a true expert so please feel free to add to or edit anything in this wiki that will improve it. The FAQs contain many oversimplifications but that is intentional to make the information relatable to the audience. Thanks!

Frequently Asked Questions

What are blockchains and bitcoins and what is the difference?
A blockchain is the fundamental element in a crypto currency system. A blockchain is an accounting ledger. Each block contains a bunch of journal entries (i.e. a chronological record of transactions) that gets encrypted (by miners) but can be downloaded and read by anyone on the network. Why the blockchain ledger is secure and how we can vouch for its integrity is a slightly more advanced topic.

An accounting ledger typically keeps track of money, and a blockchain is no different. But the only type of money that it can accurately track is digital money that lives on the blockchain network. So dollars, euros, etc are out. The digital money that lives on the blockchain is called a crypto currency, and the most well-known one at this time is Bitcoin.

Currently there are a few major blockchain networks: the Bitcoin Network, the Ethereum Network, and the Litecoin Network. Each one has its own currency, which are Bitcoin, Ether, and Litecoin, respectively.

I’m just a simple DDFer and not an accountant + cryptographer + hacker all at the same time. Can you make this a little simpler to understand?
Let’s try an analogy. There is a certain website called Dansdeals.com and it has quite a following. Some of the followers are just users/readers but others are more active and produce value for the website. When they provide value, they earn currency for their work – called “EQP” and “HT”. So we have something we will call the Dansdeals Blockchain Network that is simply a record keeper of various ongoing deals and it issues a native currency that is fractionable (10,000 EQP = 1 HT). This is similar to the Blockchain network recording financial transactions and issuing bitcoins. The ones who work for the network (miners) earn bitcoins and everyone else needs to buy it to participate.

The analogy improves if you imagine that the Dansdeals website visitors have to pay a small amount, let’s say 5 EQP, in order to access a deal or a code that is recorded on the network. If the website has 30,000 followers who love deals, but only 1,000 active members who earn EQP, then you can see that there is a need for a marketplace to be created where you can buy EQP for later use.

Of course, websites are not networks, and this analogy is far from perfect. But useful.

How much is a Bitcoin worth
No one knows. A few people are speculating its worth based on the potential that Bitcoin will one day become a major world currency that people use in their daily lives. Most people though are speculating its worth based on what the next new investor will pay them for it (google “Greater Fool Investing”).

Even if a crypto currency becomes dominant, who says it will be Bitcoin? Maybe it will be Schmitcoin?
This is completely possible. Bitcoin and Ether are the most likely at this point, but their long term survival is not at all guaranteed.

So why all the fuss about Bitcoin? Shouldn’t we wait for Schmitcoin and its cousins to come out?
You could, but you don’t want to ignore how hard it is to start up a network from scratch. It may be that as little as one person can create rival code to compete with the existing digital currencies and blockchains, but one person is not a network. You need a lot of highly technical and motivated people to join you and also to invest their time, energy, and money in making that network run. It’s a highly specialized group of people, and most of the people who would fit that profile are already tied up with an existing network. So it’s not impossible, especially in the long-term, but even if it does happen it would be unlikely to pop up overnight and so Vegas odds for Bitcoin are way shorter.

Let’s go back to the Dansdeals analogy. Imagine that Dansdeals is not the only such website, and there are other websites in existence that provide similar services. For the sake of the analogy let’s call them MMS and OMAAT. They too have big enough followings to survive independently, and even though each one offers a slightly different flavor that differentiates them, anyone on one of the networks could also get their most important needs met on one of the other networks. In this analogy, do you think it’s worth collecting EQP/HT or not? After all, Schmansdeals.com could open up one day and all the business could move there.

The argument for the difficulty of starting up a rival blockchain network is much stronger than in the analogy (especially if we start to include “smart contracts” in the discussion), but the basic idea that you need a critical mass of follows to be successful and compete with existing rivals is the same.

« Last edited by yuneeq on December 25, 2017, 01:05:21 AM »

Author Topic: BitCoin Master Thread  (Read 352253 times)

Offline yuneeq

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Re: BitCoin Master Thread
« Reply #920 on: February 04, 2018, 12:17:24 PM »
Give me a crypto you believe in and a price.

XRB will be above current price ($13.38) in 6 months.

Who cares about market cap?

What metric would you prefer instead?

I could.  But it's clear I'm already betting by not being in it.

The real cryptokooks think that in a couple years, all our dollars will be worthless. If they're right, then all my cash savings will be wiped out

You gotta PUOSU. Free money if you believe you’re right. I also haven’t met anyone who thinks our dollars will be worthless.
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Re: BitCoin Master Thread
« Reply #921 on: February 04, 2018, 12:20:24 PM »
XRB will be above current price ($13.38) in 6 months.

What metric would you prefer instead?

You gotta PUOSU. Free money if you believe you’re right. I also haven’t met anyone who thinks our dollars will be worthless.
I don't bet, but your giving a current price for XRB looks fine to me.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline henche

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Re: BitCoin Master Thread
« Reply #922 on: February 04, 2018, 12:20:34 PM »
weak

Read about the collapse of Long Term Capital Management and their hedge on shell oil.  Good theories can't predict the market. I'm not putting money on this silliness


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Re: BitCoin Master Thread
« Reply #923 on: February 04, 2018, 12:21:39 PM »
Read about the collapse of Long Term Capital Management and their hedge on shell oil.  Good theories can't predict the market. I'm not putting money on this silliness


I fully agree with you not to put money on it, but that isn't called making a bet.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline yuneeq

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Re: BitCoin Master Thread
« Reply #924 on: February 04, 2018, 12:26:52 PM »
Read about the collapse of Long Term Capital Management and their hedge on shell oil.  Good theories can't predict the market. I'm not putting money on this silliness

If you aren’t bold enough to bet, please be kind enough to make a bold prediction.
This way you’ll at least eat some crow.
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Re: BitCoin Master Thread
« Reply #925 on: February 04, 2018, 12:29:11 PM »
I wouldn't bet either way since I have no basis for any firm valuation number and the market can definitely remain irrational for quite some time. On what basis are you valuating it that makes ou say it will be worth more or less than now?
Bump
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline ChaimMoskowitz

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Re: BitCoin Master Thread
« Reply #926 on: February 04, 2018, 12:30:10 PM »
This way you’ll at least eat some crow.
LOL
I just found a new supply of forks!

Offline yuneeq

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Re: BitCoin Master Thread
« Reply #927 on: February 04, 2018, 12:41:07 PM »
Bump

We’re still talking about all crypto, right?
I believe that crypto will continue to grow in popularity as a transactional medium, a store of value, decentralized blockchains, and decentralized computing.
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Offline ExGingi

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Re: BitCoin Master Thread
« Reply #928 on: February 04, 2018, 12:51:12 PM »
LOL
Is that because there's no crow left to be eaten after the 2016 election?
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Re: BitCoin Master Thread
« Reply #929 on: February 04, 2018, 12:56:04 PM »
We’re still talking about all crypto, right?
I believe that crypto will continue to grow in popularity as a transactional medium, a store of value, decentralized blockchains, and decentralized computing.

No, I couldn't care less about market cap and it is totally irrelevant to anything. I am talking about value of ANY specific cryptocurrency. Even your basis does not give any specific valuation. If there is a bubblre now then increasing real use will be dwarfed by the exit of speculators. That may be good for crypto in the long run, but would lead to lower value. There is only one thing anyone really cares about and that is value. I am not sure why you keep shifting away from it to some irrelevant metric.
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Offline yuneeq

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Re: BitCoin Master Thread
« Reply #930 on: February 04, 2018, 01:06:55 PM »
No, I couldn't care less about market cap and it is totally irrelevant to anything. I am talking about value of ANY specific cryptocurrency. Even your basis does not give any specific valuation. If there is a bubblre now then increasing real use will be dwarfed by the exit of speculators. That may be good for crypto in the long run, but would lead to lower value. There is only one thing anyone really cares about and that is value. I am not sure why you keep shifting away from it to some irrelevant metric.

You don’t care about market cap but for some reason you care about price. (Hint: market cap = price * coins in circulation). If you believe that all crypto or some specific crypto is a bubble, you are saying that the specific market cap is a bubble. How about you become bold and make a prediction with whatever metric you prefer instead of deflecting the convo? Just PUOSU.
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Re: BitCoin Master Thread
« Reply #931 on: February 04, 2018, 01:15:09 PM »
You don’t care about market cap but for some reason you care about price. (Hint: market cap = price * coins in circulation). If you believe that all crypto or some specific crypto is a bubble, you are saying that the specific market cap is a bubble. How about you become bold and make a prediction with whatever metric you prefer instead of deflecting the convo? Just PUOSU.
As I wrote before I have no way of getting to a valuation and it seems that neither do you. I also wrote that markets can remain in a bubble for a long time so whether or not it is one has little bearing on where it moves within a specific timeframe. As I wrote, none of the things you mentioned mean higher value or magnet cap since they can be more than counteracts by exiting speculators.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline yuneeq

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Re: BitCoin Master Thread
« Reply #932 on: February 04, 2018, 01:31:43 PM »
As I wrote before I have no way of getting to a valuation and it seems that neither do you. I also wrote that markets can remain in a bubble for a long time so whether or not it is one has little bearing on where it moves within a specific timeframe. As I wrote, none of the things you mentioned mean higher value or magnet cap since they can be more than counteracts by exiting speculators.

I explained up thread many ways crypto can justify its market cap. Stores of value like gold have multi trillion dollar market cap. Currencies are probably in the hundreds of trillions. If crypt is adopted and disrupts the way I expect it to, then the current price is a bargain. Think of it this way- if Travis Kalanick came to you 10 years ago and offered you shares of Uber at a $50m valuation you might say he’s crazy and he did nothing or very little to prove Uber’s value. But if you know that he has a great team of programmers and he’s disrupting a trillion dollar industry, and to believe in his vision then you might say it’s a bargain and you would’ve been right. We are still at the nascent stages of crypto. If you believe in the tech it is grossly undervalued. If you don’t believe in it then it grossly overvalued.
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Offline ChaimMoskowitz

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Re: BitCoin Master Thread
« Reply #933 on: February 04, 2018, 01:48:53 PM »
Is that because there's no crow left to be eaten after the 2016 election?
Please keep that to JS but to answer your question we never run out of crow!
I just found a new supply of forks!

Offline Moshe123

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Re: BitCoin Master Thread
« Reply #934 on: February 05, 2018, 06:38:48 AM »
$7,611.

We're almost at the end.

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Re: BitCoin Master Thread
« Reply #935 on: February 05, 2018, 10:41:58 AM »
$7,611.

We're almost at the end.

7360...I hope so

Offline ChaimMoskowitz

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Re: BitCoin Master Thread
« Reply #936 on: February 05, 2018, 10:43:53 AM »
7360...I hope so
I think you missed the point.
I just found a new supply of forks!

Offline Yitzshpitz

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Re: BitCoin Master Thread
« Reply #937 on: February 05, 2018, 10:50:24 AM »
I think you missed the point.

You are going to miss the fun

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Re: BitCoin Master Thread
« Reply #938 on: February 05, 2018, 10:55:08 AM »
I explained up thread many ways crypto can justify its market cap. Stores of value like gold have multi trillion dollar market cap. Currencies are probably in the hundreds of trillions. If crypt is adopted and disrupts the way I expect it to, then the current price is a bargain. Think of it this way- if Travis Kalanick came to you 10 years ago and offered you shares of Uber at a $50m valuation you might say he’s crazy and he did nothing or very little to prove Uber’s value. But if you know that he has a great team of programmers and he’s disrupting a trillion dollar industry, and to believe in his vision then you might say it’s a bargain and you would’ve been right. We are still at the nascent stages of crypto. If you believe in the tech it is grossly undervalued. If you don’t believe in it then it grossly overvalued.
You are going back to your false comparison to a stock. The basic value of a stock is the current value of future earnings. The future success of a compnay gives it value today. That is not the case for a commodity. Future demand for a commodity does not give value unless that demand is unmet by additional supply. Some commodities are very finite and the supply will remain the same. Others, such as natural gas, have plenty of supply as long as it makes economic sense to extract it. If demand for NG rises the drillers place more resources into extracting and that keeps the price relatively stable. This has been the pattern for NG over the last 7 years. The same goes for crypto. As has been discussed here, we are not dealing with ownership of the underlying technology which would be similar to your example of Uber. We are dealing with ownership of a unique string of data. There are an infinite number of unique string of data out there once there is an incentive to develop better algorithms. That means that the metric of market cap is irrelevant to current value of a currency. Increased interest will only mean increased supply.
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Offline yuneeq

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Re: BitCoin Master Thread
« Reply #939 on: February 05, 2018, 11:39:04 AM »
You are going back to your false comparison to a stock. The basic value of a stock is the current value of future earnings. The future success of a compnay gives it value today. That is not the case for a commodity. Future demand for a commodity does not give value unless that demand is unmet by additional supply. Some commodities are very finite and the supply will remain the same. Others, such as natural gas, have plenty of supply as long as it makes economic sense to extract it. If demand for NG rises the drillers place more resources into extracting and that keeps the price relatively stable. This has been the pattern for NG over the last 7 years. The same goes for crypto. As has been discussed here, we are not dealing with ownership of the underlying technology which would be similar to your example of Uber. We are dealing with ownership of a unique string of data. There are an infinite number of unique string of data out there once there is an incentive to develop better algorithms. That means that the metric of market cap is irrelevant to current value of a currency. Increased interest will only mean increased supply.

I'm not gonna go in circles again.
This is a nice opinion and you are entitled to it. But I disagree.
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