NBA Master Thread

[ChaimMoskowitz]

To some extent. But there was still uncertainty. So it wasn’t fully priced in. You really have a knack for being wrong every time you say something. It’s uncanny.

If you understand basketball odds, which you don't. You would know that a line of -6 is pricing in Paul not playing. If he was playing and depending on his health Houston would a pick-em to a -2 or 3 favorite. Now just keep on pretending you understand odds and look completely foolish. 

[yuneeq]

You really don't know how odds work, do you? Paul was priced in.

So if a crucial player goes from questionable to OUT, it doesn’t affect the line?
I’ll have some of whatever you’re having.

[A3]

So if a crucial player goes from questionable to OUT, it doesn’t affect the line?
I’ll have some of whatever you’re having.

That was another line to hedge

[ChaimMoskowitz]

So if a crucial player goes from questionable to OUT, it doesn’t affect the line?
I’ll have some of whatever you’re having.

You need to retake betting 101. The line was priced for him being out. If you understand how lines are made you would understand this.

Now to blow both of you out of the water the line is now -5 to 5 1/2 down from 6. According to you two wizards the line should be higher than -6. Stick to things you know.

[EJB]

If you understand basketball odds, which you don't. You would know that a line of -6 is pricing in Paul not playing. If he was playing and depending on his health Houston would a pick-em to a -2 or 3 favorite. Now just keep on pretending you understand odds and look completely foolish. 

Wrong again. But if it makes you happy, I don't understand basketball odds and you do. Despite proving time and time again that you have no idea what you're talking about. I price risk for a living and have friends who work in the casinos to set odds. They factor their understanding of the probability Paul will be playing. I never said that was a likelihood, or that they considered it a likelihood. You said that they considered it to be a given. That is just wrong. They don't assume he won't be playing until that has been announced, despite the fact that there could be a very small probability that he will be playing (that small probability is what is factored into their pricing). And just about every casino (Vegas and online) adjusted their spread by around a point 30 minutes ago when the news became final.

[EJB]

You need to retake betting 101. The line was priced for him being out. If you understand how lines are made you would understand this.

Now to blow both of you out of the water the line is now -5 to 5 1/2 down from 6. According to you two wizards the line should be higher than -6. Stick to things you know.

You just proved yourself wrong.

[yuneeq]

You need to retake betting 101. The line was priced for him being out. If you understand how lines are made you would understand this.

Now to blow both of you out of the water the line is now -5 to 5 1/2 down from 6. According to you two wizards the line should be higher than -6. Stick to things you know.

Most of the lines I looked at went up in the past half hour since CP3 was completely ruled out. So While he was mostly priced in, there was still a still a chance he would play.

[ChaimMoskowitz]

Wrong again. But if it makes you happy, I don't understand basketball odds and you do. Despite proving time and time again that you have no idea what you're talking about. I price risk for a living and have friends who work in the casinos to set odds. They factor their understanding of the probability Paul will be playing. I never said that was a likelihood, or that they considered it a likelihood. You said that they considered it to be a given. That is just wrong. They don't assume he won't be playing until that has been announced, despite the fact that there could be a very small probability that he will be playing (that small probability is what is factored into their pricing). And just about every casino (Vegas and online) adjusted their spread by around a point 30 minutes ago when the news became final.

You are an idiot. No other way to say it. What is the line now oh great wizard of odds?

[ChaimMoskowitz]

Most of the lines I looked at went up in the past half hour since CP3 was completely ruled out. So While he was mostly priced in, there was still a still a chance.

No the lines are down from -6. According to your logic the line should be -10 or more. Give it a break. 

[EJB]

You are an idiot. No other way to say it. What is the line now oh great wizard of odds?

In your infinite wisdom, why did just about every casino/betting site lean slightly toward GS at around 7:20, when it was announced that CP3 was definitely not playing? Chance?

[EJB]

No the lines are down from -6. According to your logic the line should be -10 or more. Give it a break. 

Why should it be -10 or more? Who said CP3 was probable or likely until 7:20? Maybe the chances were 5%, and now theyre 0%? The movement indicates a probability closer to 10% that vegas considered based on a normal distribution.

[ChaimMoskowitz]

In your infinite wisdom, why did just about every casino/betting site lean slightly toward GS at around 7:20, when it was announced that CP3 was definitely not playing? Chance?

What are the odds now? Answer the question!!!

[ChaimMoskowitz]

Why should it be -10 or more? Who said CP3 was probable or likely until 7:20? Maybe the chances were 5%, and now theyre 0%? The movement indicates a probability closer to 10% that vegas considered based on a normal distribution.

What are the odds now? Answer the question!!!

[EJB]

You haven't answered my question, and I won't ask it again (I'm assuming you realize you misspoke, which is fine).

Spread is currently +5.5 to +6.5 for the home team.

[ChaimMoskowitz]

You haven't answered my question, and I won't ask it again (I'm assuming you realize you misspoke, which is fine).

Spread is currently +5.5 to +6.5 for the home team.

Here is the Mirage sports book as of 5 minutes ago.
-5½ -10
207½o -20

Yesterday it was -6. According to your logic it should be higher that -6. It might go higher if idiots don't know it was priced in already and think they are getting a deal. Please stop with the stupid comments.

[EJB]

Here is the Mirage sports book as of 5 minutes ago.
-5½ -10
207½o-20

Yesterday it was -6. According to your logic it should be higher that -6. It might go higher if idiots don't know it was priced in already and think they are getting a deal. Please stop with the stupid comments.

If you want to isolate the impact of a certain event, you don't compare points 24 hours from each other when you can get a more precise comparison by comparing points within a few minutes of each other. Lines move around all the time - As you know from the initial pricing of one moronic casino. Not all of the movements are solely due to their predictions of whether one player will be playing.

Now answer my question: Why did virtually all casinos change their spread at 7:20, give or take a few minutes, by .5 to 1 point?

[ChaimMoskowitz]

Now answer my question: Why did virtually all casinos change their spread at 7:20, give or take a few minutes, by .5 to 1 point?

Because most didn't. Stop with your non-sense. You don't understand how lines are made.

[EJB]

Because most didn't. Stop with your non-sense. You don't understand how lines are made.

-1

And of course Vegas considers what people will bet. But they also consider the actual probabilities. You seem to think they don't consider the actual probabilities. Why don't you ask anyone in Vegas. I can give you some contacts if you'd like.

[ChaimMoskowitz]

-1

You want to put your money where your mouth is?

[EJB]

You want to put your money where your mouth is?

Sure. What do you want to bet? That most casinos did not move at all after Paul's absence became a certainty? How much do you want to bet? How do we determine the winner of the bet?