Author Topic: NBA Master Thread  (Read 366929 times)

Offline ChaimMoskowitz

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Re: NBA Master Thread
« Reply #2520 on: June 08, 2017, 08:05:25 PM »
Where in that whole video did they mention favorites once?
I was asked about underdogs and responded.
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Offline skyguy918

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Re: NBA Master Thread
« Reply #2521 on: June 08, 2017, 08:14:27 PM »
You can't lump all underdogs together. A 2-1 underdog is not the same as a 10-1 underdog.
I was asked about underdogs and responded.
You don't have to lump them together. You can compare 2-1 underdogs in sport A to 2-1 underdogs in sport B, and 10-1 underdogs in sport A to 10-1 underdogs in sport B.

Offline ChaimMoskowitz

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Re: NBA Master Thread
« Reply #2522 on: June 08, 2017, 08:18:50 PM »
You don't have to lump them together. You can compare 2-1 underdogs in sport A to 2-1 underdogs in sport B, and 10-1 underdogs in sport A to 10-1 underdogs in sport B.
That is my point. Lets say in sport A 2-1 underdogs win 64% of the time and in sport B they win 68% of the time. What does that tell you about skill vs luck? IMHO nothing the same as the OP.
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Offline yuneeq

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Re: NBA Master Thread
« Reply #2523 on: June 08, 2017, 08:19:56 PM »
You can't lump all underdogs together. A 2-1 underdog is not the same as a 10-1 underdog.

That was precisely my point.
In hockey underdogs perform better because the favorites are not as strong.
The parity in skill is very close between any given team.
You'll never see 3-1 in the finals.

Offline ChaimMoskowitz

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Re: NBA Master Thread
« Reply #2524 on: June 08, 2017, 08:27:37 PM »
That was precisely my point.
In hockey underdogs perform better because the favorites are not as strong.
The parity in skill is very close between any given team.
You'll never see 3-1 in the finals.
The article is basing it on skill vs luck and that is BS. You are saying if I understand correctly that it is based on parity.
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Offline keemster26

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Re: NBA Master Thread
« Reply #2525 on: June 08, 2017, 10:09:04 PM »

Offline joe1234

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Re: NBA Master Thread
« Reply #2526 on: June 08, 2017, 10:43:10 PM »
All you Cleveland fans out there are lucky game 4 is Friday night... and GS fans we don't need to watch it...

Offline yuneeq

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Re: NBA Master Thread
« Reply #2527 on: June 08, 2017, 10:47:18 PM »
The article is basing it on skill vs luck and that is BS. You are saying if I understand correctly that it is based on parity.

The closer you are to parity in skill the more that luck is a bigger factor in determining who wins.
If everyone is equally skilled, luck will push you over the top. In the NBA there is more skill heavy and skill-free teams, so luck is not such a big factor. You also have a huge amount of scoring chances in the NBA vs the NHL, which again, gives the lucky NBA plays less importance, and more likely to even out.

Offline ChaimMoskowitz

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Re: NBA Master Thread
« Reply #2528 on: June 08, 2017, 11:04:51 PM »
The closer you are to parity in skill the more that luck is a bigger factor in determining who wins.
If everyone is equally skilled, luck will push you over the top. In the NBA there is more skill heavy and skill-free teams, so luck is not such a big factor. You also have a huge amount of scoring chances in the NBA vs the NHL, which again, gives the lucky NBA plays less importance, and more likely to even out.
You are living in dream world. When a 5-1 underdog wins it is not because of skill. The bigger the underdog the more you need luck (things go your way) to win.
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Offline farmbochur

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Re: NBA Master Thread
« Reply #2529 on: June 08, 2017, 11:43:38 PM »

Cringing at the blatant error in what is supposed to be a statistically driven video.

Var(x+y) = var(x) + var(y) + cov(x,y)

So if x = luck and y = skill, you have to consider the degree to which they correlate with one another. Good things generally happen to players who hustle (ie luck and skill are positively correlated).
Risk is opportunity

Offline skyguy918

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Re: NBA Master Thread
« Reply #2530 on: June 08, 2017, 11:59:04 PM »
Cringing at the blatant error in what is supposed to be a statistically driven video.

Var(x+y) = var(x) + var(y) + cov(x,y)

So if x = luck and y = skill, you have to consider the degree to which they correlate with one another. Good things generally happen to players who hustle (ie luck and skill are positively correlated).
But ultimately that can (and probably should) be defined as skill, not luck. There's an article with an interview of the guy (maybe wired), and he talks about the fact that the beginning of the book defines his terms - and that some things are conceptually difficult to parse between the 2 categories. If I can find it I'll post the way he defines it.

Offline springles

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Re: NBA Master Thread
« Reply #2531 on: June 09, 2017, 11:49:17 AM »
You don't have to lump them together. You can compare 2-1 underdogs in sport A to 2-1 underdogs in sport B, and 10-1 underdogs in sport A to 10-1 underdogs in sport B.
The issue with going off of vegas odds is that theyve already accounted for the "luck" involved in the sport. You are never going to get the same odds in a favored team in hockey as compared to basketball. Vegas will already have included the fact that hockey underdogs have a better chance than basketball underdogs and will decrease the degree that the favorite is favored by

Offline Toasted

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Re: NBA Master Thread
« Reply #2532 on: June 09, 2017, 02:41:54 PM »
Cringing at the blatant error in what is supposed to be a statistically driven video.

Var(x+y) = var(x) + var(y) + cov(x,y)

So if x = luck and y = skill, you have to consider the degree to which they correlate with one another. Good things generally happen to players who hustle (ie luck and skill are positively correlated).
....+2cov(x,y)

Keep that in mind on the next actuarial exam 8).

Offline farmbochur

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Re: NBA Master Thread
« Reply #2533 on: June 09, 2017, 02:52:21 PM »
....+2cov(x,y)

Keep that in mind on the next actuarial exam 8).
Knew I shoulda googled the formula instead trying to recall it from memory.
Either way, I'm all done with prelims so I figure I can just dump all the stats out of my brain now 😆
Risk is opportunity

Offline ChaimMoskowitz

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Re: NBA Master Thread
« Reply #2534 on: June 09, 2017, 05:00:04 PM »
The issue with going off of vegas odds is that theyve already accounted for the "luck" involved in the sport. You are never going to get the same odds in a favored team in hockey as compared to basketball. Vegas will already have included the fact that hockey underdogs have a better chance than basketball underdogs and will decrease the degree that the favorite is favored by
That's not how bookmakers come up with their odds. Luck has nothing to do with it.
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