Author Topic: What positions are you long, short, or hedged in anticipation of 2024 election?  (Read 1017 times)

Offline ExGingi

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I guess the title says it all.

Just to test out the platform, I used my IBKR account to place a bet on Lake for the AZ Senate. I might sell out for a decent percentage gain, but for the amount I bet it's not worth it, I'd rather wait to see how it plays out. More than anything it made me realize that these bets aren't binary, in that they are tradable for a while, so one can book gains and losses any time until expiration. Many don't realize this is the case with prediction markets. There's money to be made along the way, as sentiment changes. It also seems to be available in my IBKR ROTH IRA!

Other than that I am net long Precious Metals (though I did want to place a hedge, but didn't get around to it - not the best thing to go into an event like this unhedged).

Did you take any long, short, or option positions going into the election?
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline AsherO

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More than anything it made me realize that these bets aren't binary, in that they are tradable for a while, so one can book gains and losses any time until expiration. Many don't realize this is the case with prediction markets. There's money to be made along the way, as sentiment changes.

I guess was an opportunity to place a really cheap bet on Harris before Biden stepped aside, selling it once she stood a chance.
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Offline aygart

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Long Crypto
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Offline AsherO

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Long Crypto

Which? Short-/med-/long-term position?
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Offline ExGingi

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Which? Short-/med-/long-term position?

Does it really make a difference? There are so many ways to play these things. When I wrote that I'm net long PM it's through a combination of some physical, ETFs, options on ETFs and some Mutual Funds (the ETFs and MF are more of mid to long term position rather than an election play).
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline yuneeq

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I guess was an opportunity to place a really cheap bet on Harris before Biden stepped aside, selling it once she stood a chance.

Harris went up way before he actually stepped aside
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Offline AsherO

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Does it really make a difference? There are so many ways to play these things. When I wrote that I'm net long PM it's through a combination of some physical, ETFs, options on ETFs and some Mutual Funds (the ETFs and MF are more of mid to long term position rather than an election play).

He said crypto, so I asked which crypto, and what the term of the long bet is. Someone could be long on something in the short term but not necessarily think it’s a good long term investment, so yes, it makes a difference.
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Offline ExGingi

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He said crypto, so I asked which crypto, and what the term of the long bet is. Someone could be long on something in the short term but not necessarily think it’s a good long term investment, so yes, it makes a difference.

I asked about election related trades.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline yuneeq

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If you’re an eternal pessimist or think that every election gets stolen you can either make easy money or be pleasantly surprised by betting against Trump right now in Georgia or the national election.
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Offline AsherO

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I asked about election related trades.

I see, you’re right
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Offline aygart

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BTC up to $74,000
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Offline Chilla

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I would bet all in that by Friday no one has conceded.

Offline AsherO

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I would bet all in that by Friday no one has conceded.

Rumor has it team Harris is already writing the speech.
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Offline ExGingi

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Looks like I'll be taking it on the chin for not hedging properly.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan