Author Topic: MLB Master Thread (Read 606069 times)

Der Deutsche Jude · « **Reply #2040 on:** October 17, 2017, 01:17:58 PM »

Quote from: Redbull3 on October 17, 2017, 01:12:17 PM

In baseball history, home teams win about 53% of the time. Maybe some of that is due to "energy of the crowd" or some nonsense, but imho it's because there is an advantage to batting second. Late in a close game, you want to know exactly how many runs to play for. Consider: teams make strategy decisions all the time (offensively... steal? bunt? hint and run? pinch hit? even as an individual hitter... try and hit for power? try to get on base?) when you "go first" you don't know how many runs your team will need. So you may play for 1 run, when it turns out, your pitcher was about to give up a 2 run homer and you should've strived for a multi run inning. And vice versa. When you get last licks, you know exactly how many runs to go for. It's this advantage in knowledge aka home field advantage.

Home field advantage is due to many factors and exists in many sports besides baseball, so batting second certainly isn't the defining advantage. Though what can be huge for baseball specifically over other sports is familiarity with your own field.

Barryg · « **Reply #2041 on:** October 17, 2017, 01:24:12 PM »

Quote from: Redbull3 on October 17, 2017, 09:47:50 AM

I do get the logic of saving Davis for 3 outs vs using him for less than 3 outs, but in that case, he should have started the inning. Puig, Culberson and pinch hitter are due up. Puig does have a bit of a reverse split but Davis is so dominant he is still a better matchup than duensing. He probably would have gone straight through that inning and given the cubs a chance to score and give Lackey a cushion and at least come in fresh with no one on. Again, this is the highest leverage spot possible remaining and the cubs absolutely need this game and they have an off day the next day - there is no luxury to think you can steal an inning from duensing and lackey before using davis for more outs in a theoretical future inning. The disparity in those pitchers is too great.

To win the game after the Cubs didn't score in the top of the 9th, they would have to get 6 outs, that is the only way to win (and more likely waaay more than six out the way the offense/Dodgers bullpen has been going). Out of Maddon's options pitching Davis vs 7/8/pinch hitter and leaving top and heart of the order for Lackey etc. with no Duensing. In addition, if Davis pitched the 9th and Puig and Culberson got out, Jansen would have hit and pitched the 10th. I don't think Davis starting the 9th in a tie game with 7-8-9 up is anywhere near the best bet.

Sport · « **Reply #2042 on:** October 17, 2017, 01:41:19 PM »

Quote from: Der Deutsche Jude on October 17, 2017, 01:17:58 PM

Home field advantage is due to many factors and exists in many sports besides baseball, so batting second certainly isn't the defining advantage. Though what can be huge for baseball specifically over other sports is familiarity with your own field.

Also, due to their unique sizes and design, teams are built around their stadiums.

Sport · « **Reply #2043 on:** October 17, 2017, 01:44:58 PM »

Quote from: Redbull3 on October 17, 2017, 01:12:17 PM

I will assume you are earnest (if sarcasm here apologies for not picking up on it), think of it as margin for error. When it's a tie game, there is no margin. 1 run loses. It is a more tenuous (or high leverage) situation, vs a lead where you can give up a run and still keep playing.

To your second point.. in baseball history, home teams win about 53% of the time. Maybe some of that is due to "energy of the crowd" or some nonsense, but imho it's because there is an advantage to batting second. Late in a close game, you want to know exactly how many runs to play for. Consider: teams make strategy decisions all the time (offensively... steal? bunt? hint and run? pinch hit? even as an individual hitter... try and hit for power? try to get on base?) when you "go first" you don't know how many runs your team will need. So you may play for 1 run, when it turns out, your pitcher was about to give up a 2 run homer and you should've strived for a multi run inning. And vice versa. When you get last licks, you know exactly how many runs to go for. It's this advantage in knowledge aka home field advantage.

I was not being sarcastic.
Yes, those are all factors that are advantageous to the home team. But in a game where now 1 run will win it I'll take the advantage of knowing when to use my closer.

elit · « **Reply #2044 on:** October 17, 2017, 01:48:56 PM »

there was a great article a few years ago about home field advantage in the SI which was an expert of a book I believe. I have it saves somewhere need to find it but they basically disproved all these theories and the real answer for the most part is the refs are biased towards the home team...

Amusch · « **Reply #2045 on:** October 17, 2017, 01:51:34 PM »

Quote

Why aren't you all second guessing Maddon for leaving Davis in the 8th inning against the Nats in game 5? He looked terrible and couldn't get the ball over the plate. He also had to pitch the 9th after coming in the 7th. Let me answer it for you, because it worked!!!

ALso, it was on yontif, so some of us didn't see it.

But yes, Redbull's point is correct: the highest leverage is the present. To quote talmudic terminology, "bari v'shem, bari adif." I know there's a 9th inning; I don't know about a 10th. And the idea that your "wasting" Davis when the game is on the line is silly.

And the notion that Maddon gets credit for last year for simply being on the bench is also silly. While we're at it, I suppose we should applaud Heyward's $23 million 1.6 WAR season last year? Oh, I forgot, he gave that really inspiring rain delay speech...

Redbull3 · « **Reply #2046 on:** October 17, 2017, 01:52:02 PM »

Quote from: Barryg on October 17, 2017, 01:24:12 PM

To win the game after the Cubs didn't score in the top of the 9th, they would have to get 6 outs, that is the only way to win (and more likely waaay more than six out the way the offense/Dodgers bullpen has been going). Out of Maddon's options pitching Davis vs 7/8/pinch hitter and leaving top and heart of the order for Lackey etc. with no Duensing. In addition, if Davis pitched the 9th and Puig and Culberson got out, Jansen would have hit and pitched the 10th. I don't think Davis starting the 9th in a tie game with 7-8-9 up is anywhere near the best bet.

I hear you but I disagree. It's leverage vs quality of matchup and I will go with leverage every time. I would rather my best pitcher facing crappy hitters in a definite 0 margin for error inning than facing top of the order in an inning where who knows what the score will be. The other thing to factor is the possibility of exactly what happened - you start the inning with your next best option, only to watch the top of the order come up that inning anyway, which will leave you in the tough position of getting the worst of both worlds - not only using your secondary pitcher in the highest leverage spot, but against the best hitters too. OR, warming up davis and getting less than 3 outs, or possibly nothing out of him. Joe opting for the former.

Amusch · « **Reply #2047 on:** October 17, 2017, 01:52:14 PM »

Quote from: elit on October 17, 2017, 01:48:56 PM

there was a great article a few years ago about home field advantage in the SI which was an expert of a book I believe. I have it saves somewhere need to find it but they basically disproved all these theories and the real answer for the most part is the refs are biased towards the home team...

https://www.amazon.com/Scorecasting-Hidden-Influences-Behind-Sports/dp/0307591808

Sport · « **Reply #2048 on:** October 17, 2017, 01:52:22 PM »

Quote from: elit on October 17, 2017, 01:48:56 PM

there was a great article a few years ago about home field advantage in the SI which was an expert of a book I believe. I have it saves somewhere need to find it but they basically disproved all these theories and the real answer for the most part is the refs are biased towards the home team...

Freakenomics?

Redbull3 · « **Reply #2049 on:** October 17, 2017, 01:55:14 PM »

Quote from: Der Deutsche Jude on October 17, 2017, 01:17:58 PM

Home field advantage is due to many factors and exists in many sports besides baseball, so batting second certainly isn't the defining advantage. Though what can be huge for baseball specifically over other sports is familiarity with your own field.

Yeah that's definitely true. We know that the rockies emphasize speedy outfielders, the A's flyball pitchers and groundball hitters, yankees lefty pull power hitters, etc, due to their home park dimensions. #dimaggioforwilliams?

B.D.Da'ehu · « **Reply #2050 on:** October 17, 2017, 02:22:21 PM »

Romine starting behind the plate. I guess Girardi gave up on having a productive DH and therefore did this move to at least shore up the defense especially with Grays curveballs.

Redbull3 · « **Reply #2051 on:** October 17, 2017, 02:24:33 PM »

Quote from: B.D.Da'ehu on October 17, 2017, 02:22:21 PM

Romine starting behind the plate. I guess Girardi gave up on having a productive DH and therefore did this move to at least shore up the defense especially with Grays curveballs.

Yeah I wish we would've seen Holliday get a bit more of a shot but other than that I'm with this maybe it'll get Sanchize going. On the other side it's not like he was catching Gray gems anyway.

Barryg · « **Reply #2052 on:** October 17, 2017, 03:41:30 PM »

Quote from: Redbull3 on October 17, 2017, 01:52:02 PM

I hear you but I disagree. It's leverage vs quality of matchup and I will go with leverage every time. I would rather my best pitcher facing crappy hitters in a definite 0 margin for error inning than facing top of the order in an inning where who knows what the score will be. The other thing to factor is the possibility of exactly what happened - you start the inning with your next best option, only to watch the top of the order come up that inning anyway, which will leave you in the tough position of getting the worst of both worlds - not only using your secondary pitcher in the highest leverage spot, but against the best hitters too. OR, warming up davis and getting less than 3 outs, or possibly nothing out of him. Joe opting for the former.

And then who would pitch the 10th?