Author Topic: MLB Master Thread  (Read 217804 times)

Offline mercaz1

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Re: MLB Master Thread
« Reply #3270 on: November 01, 2019, 10:22:32 AM »
2 runs but don't let facts get in the way.
The new norm is ruining baseball and is why Houston lost game 7.
How about any of you answer this simple question?

The ratings definitely don't support the theory that this was an all time great series

Im not a huge baseball fan but try to watch playoffs and WS and I would not put this in the top 10
as far as the new norm ruining baseball I don't totally disagree with you. I think the new norm is great for winning a ton go games over the regular season but it needs to be old school baseball for the post-season

Offline CountValentine

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Re: MLB Master Thread
« Reply #3271 on: November 01, 2019, 10:33:30 AM »
The ratings definitely don't support the theory that this was an all time great series

Im not a huge baseball fan but try to watch playoffs and WS and I would not put this in the top 10
as far as the new norm ruining baseball I don't totally disagree with you. I think the new norm is great for winning a ton go games over the regular season but it needs to be old school baseball for the post-season
...but post-season is what counts no? Here is a great example on new style (statistics) baseball.
Verlander is pitching with runners in scoring position. I forgot who was batting. Stats dictate to put the shift on. The batter takes an outside pitch and hits a slow roller to the second basement. The only problem is the second basement was on the other side of second. Run scores and the rest is history.
In that situation the hitter can probably hit to the right side 7 or 8 times out of 10.
You're so far up Trump's a** you can see Giuliani's feet.  HT Baruch

Offline skyguy918

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Re: MLB Master Thread
« Reply #3272 on: November 01, 2019, 11:18:31 AM »
In that situation the hitter can probably hit to the right side 7 or 8 times out of 10.
Do you mean Rendon (that was the batter in your example), or the average random hitter? There's no way that's true on average throughout the league. If you're pitching to Ichiro, you know he's going to place the ball where he wants most of the time. But there are plenty of hitters who are just not capable and/or willing to adapt to the shift. I don't know where Rendon fits on that continuum, but if he's closer to Ichiro, that just means HOU did a bad job applying the shift, not that the shift itself has no place in baseball. And if he's not, then the fact that he lucked into a hole for a base hit doesn't make the shift a bad idea.

FYI, there's data pointing to the fact that while in the early days of the shift, on average the hitters weren't adapting very well, that has started to change (ie more and more batters are training themselves to hit out of it). Great article about that here:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-worry-mlb-hitters-are-killing-the-shift-on-their-own/

Offline CountValentine

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Re: MLB Master Thread
« Reply #3273 on: November 01, 2019, 11:22:42 AM »
Do you mean Rendon (that was the batter in your example), or the average random hitter? There's no way that's true on average throughout the league. If you're pitching to Ichiro, you know he's going to place the ball where he wants most of the time. But there are plenty of hitters who are just not capable and/or willing to adapt to the shift. I don't know where Rendon fits on that continuum, but if he's closer to Ichiro, that just means HOU did a bad job applying the shift, not that the shift itself has no place in baseball. And if he's not, then the fact that he lucked into a hole for a base hit doesn't make the shift a bad idea.

FYI, there's data pointing to the fact that while in the early days of the shift, on average the hitters weren't adapting very well, that has started to change (ie more and more batters are training themselves to hit out of it). Great article about that here:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-worry-mlb-hitters-are-killing-the-shift-on-their-own/
The problem is most of the time the hitter does not care about the shift. They are going to swing for the fence. In a situation like this in the WS that all goes out the window.
You're so far up Trump's a** you can see Giuliani's feet.  HT Baruch

Offline skyguy918

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Re: MLB Master Thread
« Reply #3274 on: November 01, 2019, 11:34:29 AM »
The problem is most of the time the hitter does not care about the shift. They are going to swing for the fence. In a situation like this in the WS that all goes out the window.
There might be some hitters that have an 'approach' issue with the shift, where the weight of the WS might correct their approach, but not every player has the level of control necessary to avoid the shift consistently, regardless of approach.

Offline CountValentine

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Re: MLB Master Thread
« Reply #3275 on: November 01, 2019, 11:41:02 AM »
There might be some hitters that have an 'approach' issue with the shift, where the weight of the WS might correct their approach, but not every player has the level of control necessary to avoid the shift consistently, regardless of approach.
It is funny the article you posted. We did exactly that (use half the field) when I was growing up. It was no big deal to hit to the opposite field. You lost some of your power but that was it. Now I understand you are going against the best pitchers in the world but the batters are the same caliber.
You're so far up Trump's a** you can see Giuliani's feet.  HT Baruch

Offline Yonah

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Re: MLB Master Thread
« Reply #3276 on: November 01, 2019, 12:13:27 PM »
...but post-season is what counts no? Here is a great example on new style (statistics) baseball.
Verlander is pitching with runners in scoring position. I forgot who was batting. Stats dictate to put the shift on. The batter takes an outside pitch and hits a slow roller to the second basement. The only problem is the second basement was on the other side of second. Run scores and the rest is history.
In that situation the hitter can probably hit to the right side 7 or 8 times out of 10.


I'm not sure of the specific moment you're speaking about above, but I would also suggest that although the Nats did score in that situation, the pre-hit odds of the shift getting the Astros out of the inning vs playing the field straight up. Increasing the odds in your favor doesn't guarantee things, it just makes them more likely. Also part of the shift requires pitcher execution - did the pitcher make his spot in that situation?

I've read two books recently that talk about the shift and it's impact, one of them "The Only Rule is it has to work" - https://www.amazon.com/Only-Rule-Has-Work-Experiment/dp/1250130905/ talks about an extreme shift they applied to one minor league player. By looking at all of his stats, they realized he hits ground balls all over the field, but fly balls only go to left or center. So every time this guy gets up to bat, they pull the right fielder into the infield as the first infielder. The hitter is frustrated, but as the story goes, he never reaches base in that game. (In the majors, the only equivalent I've seen is the 5th infielder to prevent a walk-off on a ground ball where you know that a fly ball of any kind is at least a sac fly).

In "The Shift" - (Which is interestingly enough, not entirely about the shift we're discussing) - https://www.amazon.com/Shift-Next-Evolution-Baseball-Thinking/dp/1629375446/ - the author points out that a hitter who is shifted would simply need to make an attempt to hit ground balls against the shift one out of every 3 attempts for it to be worth it, but that most players don't because they often feel they need to go for the deep hit vs the infield single. When Jay Bruce was on the Mets, he'd get extreme shifts all the time. With a no-strike or one-strike count, they'd put a guy in the hole and 3 infielders on the right side. With two strikes, there'd be 4 infielders between 1st and 2nd. It would kill me. Because even if Bruce would bunt in the first inning - even if he bunted foul. The opposing team would need to honor it if he came up in the ninth with the game on the line. But Jay Bruce was a true outcomes guy - 150 strike outs and 30 HR per season.


Offline skyguy918

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Re: MLB Master Thread
« Reply #3277 on: November 01, 2019, 12:21:23 PM »
It is funny the article you posted. We did exactly that (use half the field) when I was growing up. It was no big deal to hit to the opposite field. You lost some of your power but that was it. Now I understand you are going against the best pitchers in the world but the batters are the same caliber.
Lol. If a full field is 90 deg, and half the field 45 degrees, I think my kids 'field' is 20-25 degrees. Then again, that's elementary school kids playing 2 a side. I marvel at their ingenuity in creating their own little version of baseball.

Offline CountValentine

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Re: MLB Master Thread
« Reply #3278 on: November 01, 2019, 12:24:03 PM »
I'm not sure of the specific moment you're speaking about above, but I would also suggest that although the Nats did score in that situation, the pre-hit odds of the shift getting the Astros out of the inning vs playing the field straight up. Increasing the odds in your favor doesn't guarantee things, it just makes them more likely.
I under the odds. Odds are great when there are not variables. Probably 90%+ of the time the batter does not care about the shift. In the WS it is a whole another story. The odds don't factor in that variable which is the most important.

Also part of the shift requires pitcher execution - did the pitcher make his spot in that situation?
This is the crazy part. They pitched him outside the whole time at bat. The pitch he punched to the right side was low and away. Does not get any easier than that.
You're so far up Trump's a** you can see Giuliani's feet.  HT Baruch

Offline CountValentine

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Re: MLB Master Thread
« Reply #3279 on: November 01, 2019, 12:25:23 PM »
Lol. If a full field is 90 deg, and half the field 45 degrees, I think my kids 'field' is 20-25 degrees. Then again, that's elementary school kids playing 2 a side. I marvel at their ingenuity in creating their own little version of baseball.
Nice to see that still going on. I have not seen kids playing BB in the street for the past 20 years.
You're so far up Trump's a** you can see Giuliani's feet.  HT Baruch

Offline Yonah

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Re: MLB Master Thread
« Reply #3280 on: November 01, 2019, 01:16:20 PM »
Lol. If a full field is 90 deg, and half the field 45 degrees, I think my kids 'field' is 20-25 degrees. Then again, that's elementary school kids playing 2 a side. I marvel at their ingenuity in creating their own little version of baseball.

the playable part of my backyard is about 30'x45. All summer long it's one giant wiffle-ball tournament. The strike zone is a patio chair, and there are a ton of ground rules. I would assume that I break up about 3 fights per weekend :)

Offline shaulyaakov

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Re: MLB Master Thread
« Reply #3281 on: November 01, 2019, 01:17:45 PM »
This is not how degrees work.

Offline Yonah

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Re: MLB Master Thread
« Reply #3282 on: November 01, 2019, 01:30:22 PM »
I under the odds. Odds are great when there are not variables. Probably 90%+ of the time the batter does not care about the shift. In the WS it is a whole another story. The odds don't factor in that variable which is the most important.

Again, I didn't see this play but the logic is entirely from the perspective of the infield and what happens with each of the batters choices. IOW the fielding team doesn't make decisions based on what they think the batter will do, but on the overall odds of the outcome of the batter choice - if that makes sense? i.e. I know he can bunt, but the worst outcomes of a bunt single/sacrifice bunt is far better than the best outcomes of a hit through the infield or to shallow right.

This is the crazy part. They pitched him outside the whole time at bat. The pitch he punched to the right side was low and away. Does not get any easier than that.

That's just poor execution.

Online Dawie

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Re: MLB Master Thread
« Reply #3283 on: November 01, 2019, 01:40:09 PM »
Nice to see that still going on. I have not seen kids playing BB in the street for the past 20 years.
You need to get out more!

Offline mercaz1

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Re: MLB Master Thread
« Reply #3284 on: November 01, 2019, 01:56:48 PM »
fwiu hitters nowadays are being told t hit for HR every time (you see it with the yankees a ton) because a regular hit can lead to a double play which is worse than a strikeout-im sure there are more reasons than this as well