Author Topic: MLB Master Thread  (Read 597051 times)

Offline Sport

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Re: MLB
« Reply #2020 on: October 17, 2017, 08:04:46 AM »
I don't think it's the wrong move not to bring him in initially, unless you know he can go 2 innings. To me the mistake was letting Lackey pitch to Turner after seeing how uncomfortable he looked on the mound.

Offline Barryg

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Re: MLB
« Reply #2021 on: October 17, 2017, 08:46:38 AM »
I don't think it's the wrong move not to bring him in initially, unless you know he can go 2 innings. To me the mistake was letting Lackey pitch to Turner after seeing how uncomfortable he looked on the mound.
Again, that's what he looks like on the mound. I do agree that it would have been nice if he challenged Taylor and nibbled against Turner.

On a different subject, what really been bothering me the last few days... What would happen if they found out that Turner was using an illegal bat? I know ppl hit home runs all the time, even 500 foot ones but who fouls a ball off backwards and breaks a wall? Just wondering if anyone say any discussion about this...

Offline EJB

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Re: MLB
« Reply #2022 on: October 17, 2017, 09:10:58 AM »
So who here is going to g5 of the Yankees series?

Offline Redbull3

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Re: MLB
« Reply #2023 on: October 17, 2017, 09:24:14 AM »
I'm sorry, but I stand by this. He did everything he could to ruin the biggest game of his life last November, and now he completely kills his team by saving his best (and only good) relief pitcher for an inning that can never come if you use inferior pitchers!?! Can someone please explain to me why he's so smart and me, in my finite wisdom, am unable to appreciate it.
+1
Silly. If you think Davis > Lackey (going back to back nights, no less), then you only have a save situation if you ensured one by using your best pitcher. Otherwise, you have no save situation because you lost with an inferior pitcher. If Davis gets through the 9th, maybe they score 3 in the 10th and don't need a high end pitcher, but you know that right now you're in a do or die inning. Even if you somehow missed that and survived two outs, with the winning run on 2nd and the Dodgers best hitter(s) coming up, that would be a great opportunity to fix your mistake.
+1!!

Offline Redbull3

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Re: MLB
« Reply #2024 on: October 17, 2017, 09:28:31 AM »
http://www.espn.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/46155/why-wasnt-cubs-closer-wade-davis-on-the-mound-at-the-end-of-the-game
I know there's another ESPN article criticizing him and saying he should have brought in Davis, but this was not elimination game like Baltimore keeping Britton on bench (plus Britton was available for multiple innings in the WC game last year). Lackey has a career 3.36 postseason ERA (after the two runs without getting an out).Not the same type of situation, Maddon had to gamble either use Rondon who gave up a homerun in game 1, Lackey or waste Davis for a possible out. (Davis didn't warm up yet and wasn't going to unless they had a lead). Last year during the WS Maddon also seemed to make wrong decisions, but ended up winning the chess match vs. Fracona who's last batter of series was Michael Martinez. Had Lackey been able to retire one of the two batters that he faced, Roberts would have had the twitter world (and half the ESPN writers) on his case for pinch hitting for his closer who was available for multiple innings.
Once you are past the 8th in a tie, the highest leverage inning is the current inning and all subsequent innings can only tie, but not pass the current inning in terms of leverage. And in fact, they can be much lower leverage (if the cubs score in the top half and especially if they score multiple). I will check out the article when I get a chance but main stream baseball writers aren't going to sway me as much as the brilliant minds at baseball prospectus or fangraphs who have already analyzed this issue ad nauseum. Google leverage index, win expectancy, or win probability for a good start

Offline Redbull3

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Re: MLB
« Reply #2025 on: October 17, 2017, 09:31:25 AM »
For me, I usually defer to managers who have way more info than us viewers. Maybe Davis said something to Maddon about how he's feeling before the game. Maybe there is something about Lackey's stuff that works particularly well against the hitters he faced. The issue is maddon specifically said he was saving the closer, so that's where it opens to criticism imho. And using a mediocre sp like lackey, in relief in back to back nights, to face the top of the dodger order? I mean man talk about bad optics...

"saving the closer" is just a flawed baseball philosophy not unlike dusty's "clog the basepaths" bashing of obp
« Last Edit: October 17, 2017, 09:34:34 AM by Redbull3 »

Offline Redbull3

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Re: MLB
« Reply #2026 on: October 17, 2017, 09:33:14 AM »
Kind of annoyed... When Judge homered, I thought it was huge to not only save the bullpen but keep their butts totally down unless Houston mounted some kind of comeback. I can't believe I saw both Green and Chapman warming last night. Both of them were up way too early, Joe just getting nervous. With 2 straight games upcoming, if their performance is at all impacted by warming up last night, it's on Joe...

Offline Redbull3

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Re: MLB
« Reply #2027 on: October 17, 2017, 09:47:50 AM »
http://www.espn.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/46155/why-wasnt-cubs-closer-wade-davis-on-the-mound-at-the-end-of-the-game
I do get the logic of saving Davis for 3 outs vs using him for less than 3 outs, but in that case, he should have started the inning. Puig, Culberson and pinch hitter are due up. Puig does have a bit of a reverse split but Davis is so dominant he is still a better matchup than duensing. He probably would have gone straight through that inning and given the cubs a chance to score and give Lackey a cushion and at least come in fresh with no one on. Again, this is the highest leverage spot possible remaining and the cubs absolutely need this game and they have an off day the next day - there is no luxury to think you can steal an inning from duensing and lackey before using davis for more outs in a theoretical future inning. The disparity in those pitchers is too great.

Offline ChaimMoskowitz

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Re: MLB
« Reply #2028 on: October 17, 2017, 11:03:54 AM »
Why aren't you all second guessing Maddon for leaving Davis in the 8th inning against the Nats in game 5? He looked terrible and couldn't get the ball over the plate. He also had to pitch the 9th after coming in the 7th. Let me answer it for you, because it worked!!!
I just found a new supply of forks!

Offline Ergel

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Re: MLB
« Reply #2029 on: October 17, 2017, 11:05:03 AM »
Why aren't you all second guessing Maddon for leaving Davis in the 8th inning against the Nats in game 5? He looked terrible and couldn't get the ball over the plate. He also had to pitch the 9th after coming in the 7th. Let me answer it for you, because it worked!!!
No, because you live and die with your best
Life isn't about checking the boxes. Nobody cares.

Offline ChaimMoskowitz

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Re: MLB
« Reply #2030 on: October 17, 2017, 11:11:56 AM »
No, because you live and die with your best
So why does your ace pitcher get taken early when he doesn't have it. I will answer that one to, because there is no reason to commit suicide!!!  :)
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Offline Dan

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Re: MLB
« Reply #2031 on: October 17, 2017, 11:13:19 AM »
Where are all the Tito second guessers?

Putting Kipnis in CF turned out to be disastrous as he didn't have the arm strength to throw out runners at the plate, even from shallow CF. And that led to Urshela playing 3B instead of Ramirez and we saw what happened there...
Pitching Bauer on short rest turned out to be disastrous. Especially in a bullpen that had Salazar, Tomlin, and Clevinger.
Pitching Kluber twice, while having back issues, turned out to be disastrous.

And don't get me started on his numerous 2016 WS gaffes.

And yet people still seem to worship him...
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

Offline ChaimMoskowitz

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Re: MLB
« Reply #2032 on: October 17, 2017, 11:20:58 AM »
Where are all the Tito second guessers?

No need to beat a dead horse?
I just found a new supply of forks!

Offline Dan

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Re: MLB
« Reply #2033 on: October 17, 2017, 11:27:05 AM »
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

Offline ChaimMoskowitz

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Re: MLB
« Reply #2034 on: October 17, 2017, 11:29:09 AM »
Some horses are just for fun.  ;)
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Offline chinagel

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Re: MLB
« Reply #2035 on: October 17, 2017, 12:25:18 PM »
Where are all the Tito second guessers?

difference is the resume

Offline Sport

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Re: MLB
« Reply #2036 on: October 17, 2017, 12:27:18 PM »
Once you are past the 8th in a tie, the highest leverage inning is the current inning and all subsequent innings can only tie, but not pass the current inning in terms of leverage. And in fact, they can be much lower leverage (if the cubs score in the top half and especially if they score multiple). I will check out the article when I get a chance but main stream baseball writers aren't going to sway me as much as the brilliant minds at baseball prospectus or fangraphs who have already analyzed this issue ad nauseum. Google leverage index, win expectancy, or win probability for a good start
Really? how is it not higer leverage when you have a lead? isnt that what your closer is there for - protect your lead. I always felt that extra innings favored the visiting team for this reason.

Offline skyguy918

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Re: MLB
« Reply #2037 on: October 17, 2017, 12:42:30 PM »
Really? how is it not higer leverage when you have a lead? isnt that what your closer is there for - protect your lead. I always felt that extra innings favored the visiting team for this reason.
GIYF

Offline Sport

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Re: MLB
« Reply #2038 on: October 17, 2017, 12:45:14 PM »
GIYF
Nah, id rather be able to opine and be completey wrong. This is sports after all.

Offline Redbull3

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Re: MLB
« Reply #2039 on: October 17, 2017, 01:12:17 PM »
Really? how is it not higer leverage when you have a lead? isnt that what your closer is there for - protect your lead. I always felt that extra innings favored the visiting team for this reason.
I will assume you are earnest (if sarcasm here apologies for not picking up on it), think of it as margin for error. When it's a tie game, there is no margin. 1 run loses. It is a more tenuous (or high leverage) situation, vs a lead where you can give up a run and still keep playing.

To your second point.. in baseball history, home teams win about 53% of the time. Maybe some of that is due to "energy of the crowd" or some nonsense, but imho it's because there is an advantage to batting second. Late in a close game, you want to know exactly how many runs to play for. Consider: teams make strategy decisions all the time (offensively... steal? bunt? hint and run? pinch hit? even as an individual hitter... try and hit for power? try to get on base?) when you "go first" you don't know how many runs your team will need. So you may play for 1 run, when it turns out, your pitcher was about to give up a 2 run homer and you should've strived for a multi run inning. And vice versa. When you get last licks, you know exactly how many runs to go for. It's this advantage in knowledge aka home field advantage.