Author Topic: MLB Master Thread  (Read 176576 times)

Offline skyguy918

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Re: MLB
« Reply #2565 on: November 02, 2017, 08:52:02 PM »
I didnít know how you figured out from one years stats who would be better going forward. I never heard of BB/SO ratio being a predictor.
It's impossible to know for sure who will have a better year, but you told me to pick one, so I have to try, right? If you're asking me to do that based on the stats provided, W-L is literally the last item I'll use in that determination.

2 pitchers with identical stats, except one got all his outs via SO, the other via balls in play. Which do you expect to have the better year the following year?
2 pitchers with identical stats, except one gave up twice as many hits and walks as the other (for the same amount of runs). Which do you expect to have the better year the following year?

A pitcher has far more control over whether the batter puts the ball in play than the result of a play that the batter put the ball in play. The more baserunners you allow, the more likely you are to allow runs. These are pretty basic ideas.

Offline ChaimMoskowitz

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Re: MLB
« Reply #2566 on: November 02, 2017, 09:10:06 PM »
It's impossible to know for sure who will have a better year, but you told me to pick one, so I have to try, right? If you're asking me to do that based on the stats provided, W-L is literally the last item I'll use in that determination.

2 pitchers with identical stats, except one got all his outs via SO, the other via balls in play. Which do you expect to have the better year the following year?
2 pitchers with identical stats, except one gave up twice as many hits and walks as the other (for the same amount of runs). Which do you expect to have the better year the following year?

A pitcher has far more control over whether the batter puts the ball in play than the result of a play that the batter put the ball in play. The more baserunners you allow, the more likely you are to allow runs. These are pretty basic ideas.
Are we looking at the same stats? The only real difference is the BB. One gave up 18 more. This means he had 18 more baserunners but the same ERA. How is this possible. Can it be the walks were meaningless? Can it be he is a sinker pitcher and gets more double plays? Or maybe he gave up less extra base hits? Either way it is impossible by those stats to know who will be better next year. One thing I do know is one will have to have a big drop off to get to a losing record. The other would have to have a big improvement to get to 17 wins. Pretty easy choice.
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Offline skyguy918

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Re: MLB
« Reply #2567 on: November 02, 2017, 09:21:38 PM »


Are we looking at the same stats? The only real difference is the BB. One gave up 18 more. This means he had 18 more baserunners but the same ERA. How is this possible. Can it be the walks were meaningless? Can it be he is a sinker pitcher and gets more double plays? Or maybe he gave up less extra base hits? Either way it is impossible by those stats to know who will be better next year. One thing I do know is one will have to have a big drop off to get to a losing record. The other would have to have a big improvement to get to 17 wins. Pretty easy choice.
All those things you mention for explaining the difference are relevant statistics, which can and should be used in evaluating players. You asked about only using the stats he posted, so I used those. Meanwhile, your answer was also outside the stats.

None of what you're saying is a good defense of the use of W-L in evaluating pitchers.

Offline ChaimMoskowitz

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Re: MLB
« Reply #2568 on: November 02, 2017, 09:29:32 PM »
All those things you mention for explaining the difference are relevant statistics, which can and should be used in evaluating players. You asked about only using the stats he posted, so I used those. Meanwhile, your answer was also outside the stats.

None of what you're saying is a good defense of the use of W-L in evaluating pitchers.
I was trying to figure what the stats meant since they are almost identical expect for W/L. If the stats are basically the same except a big difference in W/L 99 out of a 100 will take the pitcher with the way better record.

You posted this:
"2 pitchers with identical stats, except one gave up twice as many hits and walks as the other (for the same amount of runs). Which do you expect to have the better year the following year?"

Not sure were you got that from.
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Offline Redbull3

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Re: MLB
« Reply #2569 on: November 03, 2017, 09:58:23 AM »
I didnít know how you figured out from one years stats who would be better going forward. I never heard of BB/SO ratio being a predictor.
In sabrmetrics they definitely are considered the most core stats for pitching, best predictor for future success and most stable year over year. Ever since voros mccracken's bombshell that pitchers are not in control of balls in play but only HR, K and BB they have been used extensively. In recent years the pendulum has kind of swung back and there has been much more focus on type (gb/fb/ld) and quality (soft/medium/hard) of contact. But K and BB (expressed best as k% or bb%) are still widely accepted as the most important/core metrics because they are most controlled by the pitcher.
Are we looking at the same stats? The only real difference is the BB. One gave up 18 more. This means he had 18 more baserunners but the same ERA. How is this possible. Can it be the walks were meaningless? Can it be he is a sinker pitcher and gets more double plays? Or maybe he gave up less extra base hits? Either way it is impossible by those stats to know who will be better next year. One thing I do know is one will have to have a big drop off to get to a losing record. The other would have to have a big improvement to get to 17 wins. Pretty easy choice.
You have some good points here about situational pitching and advantages to groundballs. This is definitely why you can't rely 100% on just k and bb. But wins and losses, really? To others' points here using those stats is just inviting tons of noise from lineup, bullpen. manager, random luck, etc.

Offline ChaimMoskowitz

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Re: MLB
« Reply #2570 on: November 03, 2017, 10:15:20 AM »
You all keep saying W/L is meaning less. If that is the case how many Cy Young winners had a losing record? How many teams top pitcher this year had a losing record? Do you choose a pitcher based on W/L record, of course not. If you have two pitchers with basically the same stats except one has a way better W/L record how can you say with a straight face you would choose the one with a way worse record?
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Offline Redbull3

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Re: MLB
« Reply #2571 on: November 03, 2017, 10:29:35 AM »
You all keep saying W/L is meaning less. If that is the case how many Cy Young winners had a losing record? How many teams top pitcher this year had a losing record? Do you choose a pitcher based on W/L record, of course not. If you have two pitchers with basically the same stats except one has a way better W/L record how can you say with a straight face you would choose the one with a way worse record?
I spend way too much of my time on looking at baseball stats and trying to predict performance. I honestly don't look at record whatsoever. My face is straight! And btw those giving out the awards are doing so less and less.

Offline Yitzshpitz

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Re: MLB
« Reply #2572 on: November 03, 2017, 10:51:34 AM »
I spend way too much of my time on looking at baseball stats and trying to predict performance. I honestly don't look at record whatsoever. My face is straight! And btw those giving out the awards are doing so less and less.

This is true. Even more so nowadays when pitchers dont usually pitch more than 6 innings and therefore dont factor as much anyway into whether the team ultimately wins.

Offline ChaimMoskowitz

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Re: MLB
« Reply #2573 on: November 03, 2017, 10:57:51 AM »
Easy way to settle this. A lot of you study stats like crazy. Find me ten sets of stats for pitchers that are almost identical (not using W/L). Then any set with a big discrepancy in W/L I will take the pitcher with the better record. Let me know how much you want to bet on who wins more games next year.  :)
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Offline Yitzshpitz

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Re: MLB
« Reply #2574 on: November 03, 2017, 11:02:19 AM »
Easy way to settle this. A lot of you study stats like crazy. Find me ten sets of stats for pitchers that are almost identical (not using W/L). Then any set with a big discrepancy in W/L I will take the pitcher with the better record. Let me know how much you want to bet on who wins more games next year.  :)

Im down :)

*Both pitchers would have to be on teams with similar offensive numbers (bullpens harder to predict and more random)

Offline ChaimMoskowitz

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Re: MLB
« Reply #2575 on: November 03, 2017, 11:07:40 AM »
Im down :)

*Both pitchers would have to be on teams with similar offensive numbers (bullpens harder to predict and more random)
It is your time and not mine so go for it. I can cover up to 1mm.  :)
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Offline Yitzshpitz

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Re: MLB
« Reply #2576 on: November 03, 2017, 11:57:31 AM »
It is your time and not mine so go for it. I can cover up to 1mm.  :)

Ha there is no minimum wage on forums?

So the best I cam up with in the 15 minutes I looked was:

               W-L     WP%         ERA     SO/9     WHIP      HR/9   
Pitcher A- 16-8    .667          3.28     7.1        1.13       1.3


Pitcher B- 10-12   .455          3.55    8.5        1.21       1.1   

*Pitcher B did make 6 less starts which lets say would prorate 2 more wins to his total)

What do ya say?

Offline ChaimMoskowitz

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Re: MLB
« Reply #2577 on: November 03, 2017, 12:04:25 PM »
What do ya say?
I say who are the two pitchers?  :)
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Offline Dr Moose

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Re: MLB
« Reply #2578 on: November 03, 2017, 12:06:05 PM »
What information about a pitcher's performance does it tell you that you can't get from other stats?
I believe WHIP is the proper way to evaluate a pitcher. That stat is solely based on his performance.
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Offline Yitzshpitz

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Re: MLB
« Reply #2579 on: November 03, 2017, 12:13:59 PM »
I say who are the two pitchers?  :)
;)

A-Ervin Santana

B-Sonny Gray