MLB Master Thread

[CountValentine]

But for real, you are comparing a 16 game season to a 162 game season, and asking why people want more than 1 playoff game per series?

I was comparing the logic of wanting 7 games so less upsets. Upsets is a good thing.
Before anyone goes there. No BB should not be one and done.

[Yonah]

Sounds very middle school-esque, but also sounds really fun. It'll get tons of coverage and interest, that's for sure.

Here's the idea, assuming that there are 8 teams that make the playoffs:
- Teams 1 gets to choose from teams 5-8. Team 2 picks from the remaining 3, and team 3 from the remaining two, and the last team goes to team #4
- The 8th place team might not necessarily be the best matchup for #1, so they get to pick
- Team #3 kind of has the option to help themselves or screw over team #4 - i.e. get them the farthest opponent so that they have to travel more.
- It makes positioning more important - i.e. even if we've qualified for the playoffs, we want to guarantee a better place
- It gives the last weeks of the season a little more intrigue - it's not just about who's in, but speculating who they might play.
- The betting aspect would be interesting as well.

[Yonah]

I was comparing the logic of wanting 7 games so less upsets. Upsets is a good thing.
Before anyone goes there. No BB should not be one and done.

Upsets are a good thing. Back to the original question - why do we feel that there will be less upsets in 7 games? Is it because we assume that statistically the "better" team will come back and win the two extra games?

[Dan]

Upsets are a good thing. Back to the original question - why do we feel that there will be less upsets in 7 games? Is it because we assume that statistically the "better" team will come back and win the two extra games?

It's basic math.

[mercaz1]

The MLB would rather have 2 smaller market teams make the WS because it would show that all markets can be competitive and not just the big market teams

The tv Networks only want the bigger markets for the WS due to ratings

[Yonah]

It's basic math.

Is it really?

Yes - I know that the simple math would suggest that if team "A" has a 60% chance of winning each game, having a bigger sample will yield results closer to expectation, but there are other factors involved too. The biggest question is what is your lookback period to determine who is actually the better team. Having a 100 win team vs a 90 Win team, you'd think the 100 win team is the favorite, but if the 100 win team was 20-40 in it's last 60 games, and the 90 win team was 40-20 - who's now the favorite?

Specifically in baseball, the pitching strategy is also dramatically different between a 5 and 7 game series (as your #1 ace can pitch 2-3 games on better rest rather than 1-2 and/or on shorter rest). But that can work both ways. (Case in point, the 1986 NLCS and how Mike Scott Dominated the Mets - the mets often say they knew that they had to win in 6, because if they went to game 7 and had to face scott again, they would've lost. Had the mets gone up 2-1 against him in game 4 of a 5-game series, they could've rested easy losing game 4, knowing full well that he'd be unavailable for game 5, and the Astros had no other pitchers who even came close).

[CountValentine]

It's basic math.

It is also basic math that if you lose in 5 games extending the series to 7 games won't matter.

[shaulyaakov]

It is also basic math that if you lose in 5 games extending the series to 7 games won't matter.

The Detroit tigers beat Verlander in 1 game. More games tend to produce a result more in line with talent and less in like with luck.

[aygart]

It is also basic math that if you lose in 5 games extending the series to 7 games won't matter.

Statistically the larger the sample size the greater the likelihood of mean reversion.

[Yonah]

The Detroit tigers beat Verlander in 1 game. More games tend to produce a result more in line with talent and less in like with luck.

... but as I mention above, Talent isn't a guarantee, and using full-season metrics have an anti-recency/anti-matchup bias.  It also doesn't take fatigue and familiarity into account - if I pitch Kershaw on short rest/out of the Pen, is he as effective? (Last night called, and it said "No"), if I see the same pitcher 3x in one week, is it easier for me to conceive his pitch sequence than during the season where I see him once a month (if that)

[shaulyaakov]

... but as I mention above, Talent isn't a guarantee, and using full-season metrics have an anti-recency/anti-matchup bias.  It also doesn't take fatigue and familiarity into account - if I pitch Kershaw on short rest/out of the Pen, is he as effective? (Last night called, and it said "No"), if I see the same pitcher 3x in one week, is it easier for me to conceive his pitch sequence than during the season where I see him once a month (if that)

Depth is a virtue.ojg series better test how good all 25 men (or at least 20+ of them) are.

[CountValentine]

The Detroit tigers beat Verlander in 1 game. More games tend to produce a result more in line with talent and less in like with luck.

Statistically the larger the sample size the greater the likelihood of mean reversion.

Neither of your comments have anything to do with what I wrote. The best you can hope for when you lose a 5 game series is 2-3. So if you extend it two more games that means you have to win both games at the very least, maybe 3 or 4 in a row. Statistically the odds are way against you. I don't care if you are the favorite or not.
That's basic math! 

[CountValentine]

The Detroit tigers beat Verlander in 1 game. More games tend to produce a result more in line with talent and less in like with luck.

...and who decides if it was talent or luck. These games are not played on paper.

[Dan]

Nice of baseball to hold the World Series first and then a scrimmage versus WAS or STL.

[CountValentine]

Nice of baseball to hold the World Series first and then a scrimmage versus WAS or STL.

You have a very bad attitude when your team is not in it. 

[Dan]

Just the facts

[Yonah]

Nice of baseball to hold the World Series first and then a scrimmage versus WAS or STL.

I'd agree with you that it doesn't look like the AL winner will have much of a challenger. That being said, the Nationals starting pitching (Scherzer, Corbin,Strasburg) is far better than the Yankees starters (Tanaka, Paxton, Happ) and would make for popcorn worthy pitching matchups with Verlander, Cole, and Greinke

While the nats lineup isn't anywhere near as deep as either AL team, they have the highly dynamic Soto, and the highly underrated Rendon.



Should still make for a good series.

[mercaz1]

Nice of baseball to hold the World Series first and then a scrimmage versus WAS or STL.

probably what the Yankees thought against Arizona as well

[BP16]

I'd agree with you that it doesn't look like the AL winner will have much of a challenger. That being said, the Nationals starting pitching (Scherzer, Corbin,Strasburg) is far better than the Yankees starters (Tanaka, Paxton, Happ) and would make for popcorn worthy pitching matchups with Verlander, Cole, and Greinke

While the nats lineup isn't anywhere near as deep as either AL team, they have the highly dynamic Soto, and the highly underrated Rendon.



Should still make for a good series.

Happ isn't Starting Its Severino, And Tanaka so far has pitched great in his playoff starts, And as you have seen so far its the bullpens that really matter. I would say that the Yankees 5th best guy in the bullpen [Chad Green] is better then the Nationals Top reliever. But ALCS comes first lets see what Happens.   

[Yehuda57]

I'd agree with you that it doesn't look like the AL winner will have much of a challenger. That being said, the Nationals starting pitching (Scherzer, Corbin,Strasburg) is far better than the Yankees starters (Tanaka, Paxton, Happ) and would make for popcorn worthy pitching matchups with Verlander, Cole, and Greinke

While the nats lineup isn't anywhere near as deep as either AL team, they have the highly dynamic Soto, and the highly underrated Rendon.



Should still make for a good series.

If happ pitches, something has gone extremely wrong or extremely right for the Yankees.