Marriott Certs Sale

[David61]

50 k certs can easily be bought for 200-225 even with long expiration.  There is zero chance of buying actual points at much below .7 cents transferred (maybe you get lucky at .6)  You are asking for 45k points for a 50k certificate which is zero probability again. Im happy to sell you as many 50 k certs you want for 40k points:)

So please educate me, with certs generally going for 0.36-0.53 cents/pt (see assumptions below), why are points (in substantial quantities) worth 0.75 cents/pt which is 140%-210% more than that?

$90 for a 25K Cert  (90 * 100  / 25,000) = 0.36 cents/pt
$135 for a 35K Certs  (135 * 100/ 35,000) = 0.39 cents/pt
$160 for 40K Certs  (160 * 100  / 40,000) = 0.40 cents/pt
$225 for 50K Certs  (225 * 100  / 50,000) = 0.45 cents/pt
$450 for 85K Certs (450 * 100  / 85,000) = 0.53 cents/pt

Granted they don't expire and are more easily transferrable/exchangeable. But they are also subject to devaluation if held over extended periods of time.

[Ankster]

So please educate me, with certs generally going for 0.36-0.53 cents/pt (see assumptions below), why are points (in substantial quantities) worth 0.75 cents/pt which is 140%-210% more than that?

$90 for a 25K Cert  (90 * 100  / 25,000) = 0.36 cents/pt
$135 for a 35K Certs  (135 * 100/ 35,000) = 0.39 cents/pt
$160 for 40K Certs  (160 * 100  / 40,000) = 0.40 cents/pt
$225 for 50K Certs  (225 * 100  / 50,000) = 0.45 cents/pt
$450 for 85K Certs (450 * 100  / 85,000) = 0.53 cents/pt

Granted they don't expire and are more easily transferrable/exchangeable. But they are also subject to devaluation if held over extended periods of time.

Your last point is exactly the reason why. Moreover, points can be utilized to book a 5th night free. Why are you implying that points are subject to devaluation but not FNCs? The method by which points get devalued via hotels increasing their nightly award rate also affects FNCs. Lastly, Marriott points aren't particularly easy to earn outside of receiving a SUB. I could spend $1k at a hotel (including taxes and fees) and only come out with ~10k Marriott points for the stay.

Also, the notion of FNCs being worth less than the corresponding points amount is not isolated to Marriott. Hyatt FNCs (lower tier ones) can be had for $125 which can book hotels up to Category 4 (12k points). However, Hyatt points sell for 1.3-1.5cpp which is ~$168. IHG FNCs can be had for ~$100 and can book hotels up to 40k points. However, IHG points sell for 0.4-0.5cpp which is ~$180.

[Shaya E]

Everything Ankster wrote, and that unless you really cherry-pick, when you use a cert you're almost guaranteed to lose some value. You'll likely use a 35k cert on any reservation costing more than, say, 30k points.

[David61]

5th night free, at most explains a 25% premium (probably less as 5-night stays are relatively infrequent).

With these numbers,
using a 35K cert (at $135) is more efficient than using points if the reservation is more than 18K points.  (18,000 * .0075 = $135) and
using a 50K cert (at $225) is more efficient than using points if the reservation is more than 30K points.  (30,000 * .0075 = $225)

[Ankster]

5th night free, at most explains a 25% premium (probably less as 5-night stays are relatively infrequent).

With these numbers,
using a 35K cert (at $135) is more efficient than using points if the reservation is more than 18K points.  (18,000 * .0075 = $135) and
using a 50K cert (at $225) is more efficient than using points if the reservation is more than 30K points.  (30,000 * .0075 = $225)

Sure. At the end of the day, it's a free market and the market sets the price. Also, you seem to be mixing two different points (i.e., what is the most cost efficient way of booking vs. what is justified as the price for points). The former is correct by your logic. However, your analysis of the latter is not considering how much harder it is to get 35k points than it is to get a 35k FNC on a recurring basis. Like I mentioned, this principle isn't limited to Marriott either.

To reiterate @blur1717's point, I think you'll find it very difficult to find anyone who will give you 45k Marriott points for a 50k FNC as you asked. Points don't expire as long as you have Marriott activity and FNCs do so the only time it would make sense to trade is if someone had a 50k redemption in mind that they were otherwise planning to use their points for. Even then, they are better off selling the 45k points for 0.07cpp and buying a 50k FNC on here with cash. It doesn't matter if you can't rationalize it but the market sets the price based on the value people set on the inherent qualities of points vs. FNCs.

[maxiao82126]

I have one 50k certs left will trade for 40k points

[ngalliance]

Selling 5x 50k point certs for $250 each. Expire 7/31/23

[jellis]

Buying 85k certs for $450 each.

[Sushiboss]

Question: can I use a 50k cert for a 3 night stay that comes out to 50k or can it only be used for one 50k night ?

[snagger]

Buying 35k cert at $125 OBO. Will pay slightly more for titanium account.

[mochjas]

Question: can I use a 50k cert for a 3 night stay that comes out to 50k or can it only be used for one 50k night ?

only one night

[upside down]

Looking to but one 35K plus 3k top off for $150
PM me please

[g8trgr8t]

Buying 85k certs for $450 each.

pm'd

[snagger]

Buying 35k cert at $125 OBO. Will pay slightly more for titanium account.

paying $150 OBO for a 35k night.

[blur1717]

Sure. At the end of the day, it's a free market and the market sets the price. Also, you seem to be mixing two different points (i.e., what is the most cost efficient way of booking vs. what is justified as the price for points). The former is correct by your logic. However, your analysis of the latter is not considering how much harder it is to get 35k points than it is to get a 35k FNC on a recurring basis. Like I mentioned, this principle isn't limited to Marriott either.

To reiterate @blur1717's point, I think you'll find it very difficult to find anyone who will give you 45k Marriott points for a 50k FNC as you asked. Points don't expire as long as you have Marriott activity and FNCs do so the only time it would make sense to trade is if someone had a 50k redemption in mind that they were otherwise planning to use their points for. Even then, they are better off selling the 45k points for 0.07cpp and buying a 50k FNC on here with cash. It doesn't matter if you can't rationalize it but the market sets the price based on the value people set on the inherent qualities of points vs. FNCs.

Not only 45k but I think even 40 K points are gonna be very tough borderline to get for a 50 k cert even if its long expiration. Like I said I have  4   50K certs from titanium and Platinum accounts and would happily sell them for 40 K but very unlikely I will have any buyers. But if there are Im happy to of it

Keep in mind you can only transfer 100k Marriott points a year so if you trade out for a cert thats not good value

Finally. look. 85k certs are being sold for 450 dollars. By your math that would be  77k transfer worth.   I have three 85 k certs that I would happily trade for 75 k or even 70 k or even 67k points. And 85 k certs are much rarer than 50 k certs and have a lot more value.   50 k certs can be substituted with a cheap 35k certs and adding 15k top up.   You cant top anything up to 85k

[blur1717]

Question: can I use a 50k cert for a 3 night stay that comes out to 50k or can it only be used for one 50k night ?

one night only

[David61]

Not only 45k but I think even 40 K points are gonna be very tough borderline to get for a 50 k cert even if its long expiration. Like I said I have  4   50K certs from titanium and Platinum accounts and would happily sell them for 40 K but very unlikely I will have any buyers. But if there are Im happy to of it

Keep in mind you can only transfer 100k Marriott points a year so if you trade out for a cert thats not good value

Finally. look. 85k certs are being sold for 450 dollars. By your math that would be  77k transfer worth.   I have three 85 k certs that I would happily trade for 75 k or even 70 k or even 67k points. And 85 k certs are much rarer than 50 k certs and have a lot more value.   50 k certs can be substituted with a cheap 35k certs and adding 15k top up.   You cant top anything up to 85k

So in a nutshell, at this valuation, its only efficient to use points where certs can't be used, and cash is less efficient. I.e.
--for top-offs,
--for stays under 18,000 points that cost more than $135,
--or for stays above 100,000 points, that cost more than $750 (or $0.0075/pt).

[Pickles]

It also comes down to the status on the attached cert. If it's silver or gold that cert is worth a lot less. Also, it's a pain in the ass to try and use the cert as a 2nd guest outside of USA, obviously not the case with points. IMHO if I were to trade points for a 50k cert, my ceiling would be 30-35k depending on the status.

[snagger]

paying $150 OBO for a 35k night.

covered.

[underastormysky]

When I make a booking for someone and I put my credit card down to reserve the reservation, and the confirmation email has say $30 in taxes and fees - if the 2nd guest who checks in puts their card on file, will that $30 go to them? Or am I charged that no matter what? So if I sell a cert for $150 but the confirmation shows a charge on my card for $30 should I add that to the cost of the booking?