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Author Topic: 1 billion dollars for perfect March Madness bracket  (Read 3463 times)

Offline Drago

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1 billion dollars for perfect March Madness bracket
« on: January 22, 2014, 09:47:48 AM »
Details here.
http://www.fastcompany.com/3025240/fast-feed/warren-buffett-will-give-you-1-billion-if-you-have-a-perfect-march-madness-bracket

I'm annoyed thought that it's only 500 million if you take the lump sum. But they are discounting back the cash flow stream at an interest rate of 4.21% real, which is quite reasonable.
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Offline Dan

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Re: 1 billion dollars for perfect March Madness bracket
« Reply #1 on: January 22, 2014, 09:58:21 AM »
Agree with the commenters.  Those odds assume the number one and number 16 seeds have equal odds of winning.
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Offline Marco Polo

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Re: 1 billion dollars for perfect March Madness bracket
« Reply #2 on: January 22, 2014, 10:02:57 AM »
The odds are ridiculous.

Though can't hurt to give it a shot...
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Offline Drago

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Re: 1 billion dollars for perfect March Madness bracket
« Reply #3 on: January 22, 2014, 10:05:23 AM »
Quote from: Dan on January 22, 2014, 09:58:21 AM
Agree with the commenters.  Those odds assume the number one and number 16 seeds have equal odds of winning.
According to this link
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/ncaab-the-dagger-college-basketball-blog/odds-someone-picking-perfect-ncaa-tournament-bracket-174719228--ncaab.html

it's 1:128 billion if you know basketball.

More info here
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB114304314046605235
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Offline Dan

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Re: 1 billion dollars for perfect March Madness bracket
« Reply #4 on: January 22, 2014, 10:09:49 AM »
Quote from: Drago on January 22, 2014, 10:05:23 AM
it's 1:128 billion if you know basketball.
Sounds plucked out of mid-air.
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Offline Ergel

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Re: 1 billion dollars for perfect March Madness bracket
« Reply #5 on: January 22, 2014, 10:17:42 AM »
Quote from: Dan on January 22, 2014, 10:09:49 AM
Sounds plucked out of mid-air his tuchus.
FTFY
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Offline yos9694

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Re: 1 billion dollars for perfect March Madness bracket
« Reply #6 on: January 23, 2014, 12:39:40 PM »
So how do you give it a shot?
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Offline Drago

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Re: 1 billion dollars for perfect March Madness bracket
« Reply #7 on: January 23, 2014, 01:26:11 PM »
Quote from: Dan on January 22, 2014, 10:09:49 AM
Sounds plucked out of mid-air.
Did you watch the video? Maybe it was explained there?
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Offline YankyDoodle

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Re: 1 billion dollars for perfect March Madness bracket
« Reply #8 on: January 23, 2014, 01:56:25 PM »
Quote from: Drago on January 23, 2014, 01:26:11 PM
Did you watch the video? Maybe it was explained there?

Meh, I expected better. All he said was that someone who knows something about basketball (i.e. that 1 and 2 seeds hardly lose in the first round) and then randomly threw out the 128 billion number.
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Offline HowYaDoin

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Re: 1 billion dollars for perfect March Madness bracket
« Reply #9 on: January 23, 2014, 02:43:49 PM »
I figure if warren Buffett is investing in this the odds have to be pretty darn small of anyone winning
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Offline Dr Moose

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Re: 1 billion dollars for perfect March Madness bracket
« Reply #10 on: January 23, 2014, 02:45:20 PM »
how many different possibilities are there? (mathematically)
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Offline Emkay

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Re: 1 billion dollars for perfect March Madness bracket
« Reply #11 on: January 23, 2014, 02:48:44 PM »
Quote from: Dr Moose on January 23, 2014, 02:45:20 PM
how many different possibilities are there? (mathematically)
according to the article 1.2 quintillion!
That's 1.29000000000000000000
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Offline YankyDoodle

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Re: 1 billion dollars for perfect March Madness bracket
« Reply #12 on: January 23, 2014, 02:50:03 PM »
Quote from: Dr Moose on January 23, 2014, 02:45:20 PM
how many different possibilities are there? (mathematically)

The odds of winning = the mathematical probability
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Offline Drago

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Re: 1 billion dollars for perfect March Madness bracket
« Reply #13 on: January 23, 2014, 02:58:00 PM »
What are the odds if you always guessed on the higher seed?
I'm sure plenty of these analysis's have been done over recent years.
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Offline YankyDoodle

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Re: 1 billion dollars for perfect March Madness bracket
« Reply #14 on: January 23, 2014, 04:25:57 PM »
Quote from: Drago on January 23, 2014, 02:58:00 PM
What are the odds if you always guessed on the higher seed?
I'm sure plenty of these analysis's have been done over recent years.

It will be better than the straight odds but worse than the odds of someone knowledgeable about basketball. Sorry for that non-answer answer.
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Offline AJK

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Re: 1 billion dollars for perfect March Madness bracket
« Reply #15 on: January 23, 2014, 04:50:46 PM »
Quote from: HowYaDoin on January 23, 2014, 02:43:49 PM
I figure if warren Buffett is investing in this the odds have to be pretty darn small of anyone winning

+100  ;D
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