Should chareidim be forced to go to the army?

[Definitions2]

They are citizens and pay taxes hold Israeli passports etc.

Understood. Going along this but ignoring the passport part. Why is it only limited to monetary taxes (money is effectively time)? Physical tax isn't also something? like army?

[aygart]

Understood. Going along this but ignoring the passport part. Why is it only limited to monetary taxes (money is effectively time)? Physical tax isn't also something? like army?

I understand the argument that they should serve in the army

[Definitions2]

I understand the argument that they should serve in the army

So hadra shaila lduchtei.

[aygart]

So hadra shaila lduchtei.

In what way are they not citizens other that army service? Arabs didn't serve either but vote?

[Definitions2]

In what way are they not citizens other that army service? Arabs didn't serve either but vote?

I'm biased towards one direction. It's hard for me to see the other side clearly. On paper I guess army is about it.
Ideologically, both sides cancel out just like any other countries. I'd have to think about it and hear other opinions to get clarity.
As for Arabs I don't know the rules regarding that. If that's the case and it's not deemed a security risk then I guess they should too.

[mevinyavin]

Hard-hitting anonymous (read: worthless) take officially written by a kollel avreich. I'm skeptical because of the condescending tone. Some good points buried in the garbage, though. I never knew that A7 could disable comments, because this one would be quite popcorn-worthy if it was. Um, I don't suppose it occurred to this fellow that everything he says has been considered by the gedolim, and they still haven't changed their minds? Did he talk with his Rebbe first? Hmm...
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/392689

"My brothers, do not commit this wrongful act"
All the arguments of the haredi world cannot stand up to the simple fact that Jewish lives are on the line in Israel as never before and the army must increase the number of combat soldiers asap. Opinion.
Gedalia Zurger
  Jul 7, 2024, 9:40 PM (GMT+3)
Gedalia Zurger

Gedalia Zurger (not his real name) is an avrech (married kollel student) in Bnai Brak. Article translated from Makor Rishon by Rochel Sylvetsky.

To arouse someone who has lost consciousness, sometimes the best thing to do is to slap him in the face. The articles published in the Hebrew press recently, especially one by a haredi writer last week titled “The Religious-Zionist Conceptsia” was a slap in the face to our consciousness. And that article was but one of an entire series of articles, statements and comments by talking heads, all coming from the haredi side of the dispute. And that is why I have written this article.

The prevarications were never as clear as they are now. After seventy-five years of hearing the haredi community, to which I have belonged all my life, tell everyone that they are an integral part of the nation, that they see all Jews as brothers, and that in their world view, they are fighting with them shoulder to shoulder, except that they do battle by learning Torah – the sad truth has been revealed. You probably think that the argument centers around “[the Torah] protects and saves” (“magna umatzla”, Tractate Sota 21) and “rabbis do not need protection” (“Rabbanan la tsrichei netiruta,” Tractate Bava Batra)­­ but I have news for you. That was never the real issue.

So, can someone explain to us what the argument is all about? Not really. It seems that every haredi spokesperson can take the argument to any place he wishes.

According to the aforementioned article, the crux of the issue is opposition to the Zionist ethos. Its author writes that Religious Zionism has an ethos, a “conceptsia” in his words, and that in his view, there is an ongoing debate about whose “conceptsia” is the right one.

What really happens is that Religious Zionist rabbis open the Talmud, Maimonides, and other sources to try to understand if the Torah really does “protect and save” without the necessity of enlisting in the army or whether “even a bridegroom must leave his room and a bride her chuppah,” as is the halakha in case of a war to save the Jewish people from those who attempt to destroy them. They write letters and publish learned explanations, quote sources with exacting accuracy – only to discover that the other side is not only bored - but mocking.

The haredi side wants to avoid discussion and never actually intended to debate the issue seriously. More insulting is that those bringing the haredi point of view are in most cases journalists and spokesmen who are total ignoramuses when it comes to Torah. Their only talents lie in the political and verbal realms. The truth is that the real Religious Zionist “conceptsia” is that sector’s sincere desire to have a serious discussion on the matter – while the haredim avoid it like the plague.

Self-deception

Let us analyze the various haredi claims and present a condensed version of the statements that are the most common. It turns out that the haredi rhetoric we have been subject to lately is disingenuous, to say the least.

This is how the arguments unfold: First the haredi speaker proclaims that the Holy Torah guards the Jewish People. (There is no Religious Zionist argument with that.) Sometimes he adds an emotional element: "Do you know how hard it is to learn Torah ten hours a day?" The person who must contend with this argument is usually a non-religious broadcaster with absolutely no Torah background. His intuition tells him that there is something wrong here, but he is incapable of discussing the “protects and saves” Talmudic dictum in any depth.

That forces him to take another tack: “And what about those who aren’t learning?” This is when the deception comes into play. The more experienced politicians – generally from the soft edges of the Shas party – nod their head and agree: “There is no question that those who are not learning must enlist.” The secular broadcaster will repeat this, as will other media. That is, until one of the haredi spiritual leaders says: “G-d forbid, there is no way a haredi young man can enlist in the IDF.” And they did say just that.

The more honest haredi spokespersons go on to the next stage and adopt a cultural approach: “The army is unsuitable for haredim. A haredi young man who enters the army will not leave it a haredi.” Seasoned broadcasters will protest: “but the Army is willing to create separate frameworks to protect them,” to which the spokesmen retort: “If and when that happens, there will be something to discuss.” Someone usually comes and declares that “there is no chance of that happening.” (However, although that was true in the past, the army has just made a detailed haredi-oriented offer – so let us see what happens, R.S.)

Others will venture a different reason – one which once held water: “The army neither wants nor needs the haredim.” They will usually quote some general or former CoS who said this, except that it was before the cataclysmic reality prevailing since October 7th, a time when Ehud Barak’s “small, smart army” concept was still an accepted mantra. It is true that then, most Religious Zionists saw it as a live-and-let-live issue, not necessitating haredi participation in the army.

That, however, is not the case today. So today, others add, in the same vein: “This does need rethinking, but no one imagines that drafting haredim at this point will help the country or affect the burden falling upon the reservists. Even if a wholly haredi combat brigade were to be formed now, we all hope the reservists will be back home by the time it finishes basic training. If the goal is to ease the burden, wouldn’t it be more logical to try to draft all the fighters who have already had training?" (This using the incontrovertible fact that over 10,000 reservists have not been called up for active service and adding the inexcusable fact that there are tens of thousands of non-religious young men who avoid serving in the army).

Of course, this means that for the foreseeable future, the injustice done to the reservists can be allowed to continue, since if the army refrains from drafting thousands of haredim now, in three years’ time the haredim can say the same thing once again. The fact is, that it really won’t help today’s reservists, but training haredim now can certainly save those reservists in another year or two.

Simchat Torah taught us that the concept of a “small, smart army” has gone up in blood and fire, and that IDF needs large numbers of soldiers, in regular service and as reservists. It needs the haredim, the reservists who were not called up and the non-religious who avoided the draft as well. And as the years pass, that need will only increase.

Better to have dropouts than to let the roots rot

The above points are the ones used mostly when being interviewed by secular media personalities, who admit that they are unable to counter them. If a Torah verse is quoted, even one that angers the interviewer, he has no basis for a counter argument and generally gives in, sometimes, most unfortunately, feeling antipathy towards the Torah that is the source of the quote.

However, when the contender is a Religious Zionist, that is a different story. The haredi public finds itself in some confusion when arguing with what it calls “mizrochnikim.” Many in the haredi world realize that the level of Religious Zionist Torah learning is no lower than theirs. Religious Zionist rabbis do not wear long black coats for the most part and do not call themselves “Maran,” but it is enough to listen to one short shiur (Torah lecture) to understand that they can hold their own in Torah and fear of G-d. The heroic stories of Talmidei Chachamim (Torah scholars), Ra”mim (Yeshiva gemara teachers) and Dayanim (Religious Court judges) from the Religious Zionist community who went into battle and literally endangered their lives to save the Jewish people, cannot leave hearts unmoved.

When arguing with “mizrochnikim” the whole format changes. They cannot be quoted partial verses and Talmudic texts taken out of context. They know how to back up their words with our Sages and the Rambam, and with Tanakh verses that most haredi scholars have never studied. They also prove by their very existence, that one can wear an IDF uniform and stay G-d-fearing, that one can learn more than the average yeshiva boy does in the breaks between battles.

At any rate, when facing Religious Zionists, the discussion goes on to another level, as if to admit that talking about “protecting and saving” will not work and that saying that “we are following the instructions of our great rabbis” won’t work either, because they are liable to ask for the reasons justifying those statements. The haredi side then resorts to politics, saying: You want the non-religious to like you, but that does not happen. Look at you, dying like flies and the Chief of Staff and upper IDF echelons are all leftists. The leftist media ignore your sacrifice and even denigrate you.

Religious Zionists who believe in the “conceptsia” that Jews have to sacrifice their lives to protect their brothers because of the mitzva saying “do not stand idly by while your brother’s blood is being shed” have a difficult time dealing with this kind of cynical political outlook.

Some haredim, at this point, criticize the entire Religious Zionist education system. “You hate us,” they claim, and the ignorant among them dare to say that this is an instance of the “unlearned hating Torah scholars” – the scholars being those with black hats, and the unlearned being those well versed in Tanach, Gemara, and clear Jewish hashkafa (Jewish philosophy).

On the contrary, not only do the Religious Zionists not hate the haredi sector, their youth, over the past few decades, look to the haredim for whatever spiritual content they can glean from Hassidism (without being involved in all the intrigues taking place in the various courtyards) and can be found among those sitting on the Hassidic bleachers at events. Religious Zionists quote the great thinkers and scholars of the haredi world without any censorship. In Religious Zionist study halls, you are apt to see students analyzing the points in the book “Vayoel Moshe” by the Satmar Rebbe more than the Satmar Hassidim do. Talk of “hatred” is totally out of place. It does not exist. (There is, however, anger today, especially among parents of religious soldiers, R.S.)

The haredim also use the numbers of Religious Zionists who have stopped keeping the commandments as a weapon: “Perhaps you are right. But look how many dropouts you have.” Without contradicting the inflated percentages heard in these contexts, and without bringing up the growing percentage of haredi dropouts, the Religious Zionists are much more afraid that the entire tree of the state will rot and forget its mission, turning that rot into an ideology.

Extremism and distancing

There is no way to avoid dealing with haredi opposition to the Zionist venture. One can, however, mention how this is being said by a public which has held decision making positions in that Zionist venture for at least forty years, at the same time enjoying generous financial allocations as well as welfare and health benefits that are way above its percentage of the population and its contributions to the economy, while taking part in cabinet meetings that decide on security issues without its children taking part in the war effort.

When the state was founded, the need for yeshiva exemptions was justifiable. Today the haredi sector gets much more than its fair share. The “society of learners” that rose up in the state of Israel has no precedent. It lives and breathes only because of the Zionist venture that it scorns. The very fact that a small cut in allocations causes the haredim to talk about the collapse of the Torah world is the proof.

The haredi sector which saw itself as the “mezuzah of the state” has not been fulfilling that promise for decades. The feelings of shared responsibility and mutual caring have disappeared. Not only is the claim that “we are learning more during this period” not true – there were very few yeshivas that cancelled their vacation “bein hazmanim” or stopped parties during the war – they are not even trying to seem like they are part of the war effort, continuing petty political maneuvers to get jobs and funding, with no evidence of their rising to the great challenges of the hour.

But all the above is part of an old dispute, it belongs to the time preceding October 6th, or if you wish it, to Hoshana Rabba of this year. All the concepts disintegrated on Simchat Torah. The theoretical arguments about Zionism or saying Hallel on Independence Day are irrelevant. We are facing a clear instance of pikuach nefesh, saving lives. At a time that Jewish blood is being spilled like water, no one can stand on the sidelines. Hundreds of soldiers have fallen, thousands of orphans and widows have had their lives changed forever, and they did not do this because of the sanctification of Zionism but mainly in order to protect their brothers in Bnai Brak, Emanuel, Kiryat Sefer and Beitar Ilit as well as the rest of the country.

And don’t try to say that this is a “process” and that everything must be done patiently through talking to one another. We do have the haredi Netsach Yehuda and Nahal Haredi but they are a drop in the bucket. The last seventy-five years have taught us that that the process is one of distancing and more extremism. It is not the courts that severed the connection between the state and the haredim, but the young haredi men blocking roads shouting “we would rather die that be drafted”, or treating soldiers as if they are beneath them and not saying the prayer for their safety on Shabbat.

“Please, my brothers, do not commit this wrongful act,” is a quote from the book of Genesis. Do not be taken in by empty rhetoric. Religious Zionism cares about the Torah world no less than the haredim, they too are willing to pay huge sums to preserve their spiritual level and their children’s education, they too are pained and worried by the religious dropout rate.

But they are also pained and worried about the physical future of all of us and are not willing to allow old arguments to divert attention from reality: “It is a time of trouble for [the people of] Jacob” as the Prophet Jeremiah said, and the Torah in Leviticus 19 commands us: “Do not stand idly by when your neighbor’s blood is being spilled.”

[yfr bachur]

Hard-hitting anonymous (read: worthless) take officially written by a kollel avreich. I'm skeptical because of the condescending tone. Some good points buried in the garbage, though. I never knew that A7 could disable comments, because this one would be quite popcorn-worthy if it was. Um, I don't suppose it occurred to this fellow that everything he says has been considered by the gedolim, and they still haven't changed their minds? Did he talk with his Rebbe first? Hmm...
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/392689

Being Dan Lekaf Zchus
A Datal Avreich wrote it while in Bnei Brak. 

Its stupid. No one is fooled that it came from inside the Charedi Machane. Its the same drivel that MO people like NS are propagating.

A better discussion would go to the roots of the difference between the DL view and the Chareidi spectrum of views: How you view the state; Aschalta D'Geula vs. Ikvisa Demeshicha vs. Sof HaGalus vs. Maase Satan; what the Chazon Ish said when posed similar questions...

[yfr bachur]

Its stupid. No one is fooled that it came from inside the Charedi Machane. Its the same drivel that MO people like NS are propagating.

This doesn't mean that there aren't points that need answering - even if only for ourselves. but this is letter is pretty much copy+paste from recent Rationalist Judaism posts, slightly changed to sound a bit more yeshivish. (being Not DLKZ - NS wrote it himself ). It's impossible that a mainstream Charedi avreich would write a post on the topic and parrot the DL/MO while ignoring the fundamental hashcafic differences. (Anyway, factual errors too: he obviously has no idea how obsessively Satmar learns Vayoel Moshe and aside from Deri at some points, I am unaware of Charedi politicians ever being involved in security decisions - aside from knesset votes; CHaredim never saw themselves as the Mezuzah of the State - that is exclusively a DL thing...)

[Saulius]

This is the REAL REASON the Chareidim will never join the IDF
Everything else is bluff

[aygart]

This is the REAL REASON the Chareidim will never join the IDF
Everything else is bluff

Can you give us a summary?

[gozalim]

Can you give us a summary?

The point (which has been made above) that the Army is a melting pot for secular Israeli culture.
having our children be 'convert'/'drop off' that way is יהרג ועל יעבר, worse than death (and worse than the individual shabbos/kashrus issues)
and there isn't a practical offer to change that

[yungermanchik]

https://torasavigdor.org/qa/rav-avigdor-miller-on-frum-regiments-in-the-israeli-army/
https://torasavigdor.org/qa/rav-avigdor-miller-on-helping-out-in-medinas-yisroel/

[yfr bachur]

This is the REAL REASON the Chareidim will never join the IDF
Everything else is bluff

The point (which has been made above) that the Army is a melting pot for secular Israeli culture.
having our children be 'convert'/'drop off' that way is יהרג ועל יעבר, worse than death (and worse than the individual shabbos/kashrus issues)
and there isn't a practical offer to change that

I don't think that that is the fundamental issue. The DL also have such worries, and seem to figure out a way to send their kids anyway.
It's how you view the state.
If you believe in Aschalta D'Geula, and there is a positive religious significance to the existence of the state etc... than you look at the army as a positive religious duty. Milchemes Mitzva and all that. And you make do with what exists, in spite of your reservations, in hope of improving the future reality. (A more extreme version of this makes the state the Getshke, and claims that a non observant soldier is a better jew than a shomer Tu"m who does not serve)
If you believe in Ikvsa D'Mishicha/Sof Galus, then there is NO religious/halachic significance to the state, just facts on the ground that these are the people who claim governing power, and you deal with it pragmatically. You don't have any "Eseh doche Lo Saase" pushing you to ignore the very real religious issues involved in the army. and you may believe that the alleged "melting pot" is shmad. ("alleged" just bec it was that way early in the state does not necessarily make it so today)
If you believe in Maase Satan, that you believe that serving is (at least abvezrayhu d') avoda zara/Kfirah

Anyway, I don't think that the leader of a small extreme sect within another pleg of litvishe speaks for the hashkafos of rov minyan u'binyan of charedim in EY

[gozalim]

The point (which has been made above) that the Army is a melting pot for secular Israeli culture.
having our children be 'convert'/'drop off' that way is יהרג ועל יעבר, worse than death (and worse than the individual shabbos/kashrus issues)
and there isn't a practical offer to change that

this is a summary of the video

[yfr bachur]

this is a summary of the video

Understood.
I don't think that thats fundamentally

the REAL REASON

rather more in the realm of what I wrote.

If Charedim believed in aschalta degeulah, and rashis geula beartzeinu, and all that... They would figure out a way to serve (at least those not learning). They would be proactively working with the army to create situations that where they could serve and worry less about the "melting pot". Like the DL do! AFAIK There are hesder programs where the people you learn with in yeshiva are the people you serve with, sometimes even the officers are from the same BM.
But they don't believe that, so they don't.
I recently read the artscroll biography of the Chazon Ish. When asked about mutual responsibility etc..., his answer was not "army is shmad" his answer was more or less anti-stateist "you made the mess, you clean it up".

BTW Shocked that he even gave them the time of day.

[yfr bachur]

this is a summary of the video

i looked through quickly (shockingly, its open in netfree  )
The video has enough cuts to make me curious what got cut out.
It's pretty much a masterclass on how to talk to a chiloni on the subject.
The chiloni take seems to be "after Oct 07, everything needs to change...in the way I think is best" and try to negotiate anyway to get him to give an inch...
He's like - Nothing changed.

My favorite response from what I saw so far
To the line of questioning "Israel's survival is at stake if X% dont serve..."
"If the X% evaporated tomorrow, Israel wouldn't survive?"

[Saulius]

Understood.
I don't think that thats fundamentally rather more in the realm of what I wrote.

If Charedim believed in aschalta degeulah, and rashis geula beartzeinu, and all that... They would figure out a way to serve (at least those not learning). They would be proactively working with the army to create situations that where they could serve and worry less about the "melting pot". Like the DL do! AFAIK There are hesder programs where the people you learn with in yeshiva are the people you serve with, sometimes even the officers are from the same BM.
But they don't believe that, so they don't.
I recently read the artscroll biography of the Chazon Ish. When asked about mutual responsibility etc..., his answer was not "army is shmad" his answer was more or less anti-stateist "you made the mess, you clean it up".

BTW Shocked that he even gave them the time of day.

The chareidim are waiting for the medina to collapse. Both the Brisker Rav zt'l and the Chazon Ish zt'l said that the medina will last only a certain number of years. Then it will be controlled by a foreign entity for a period up to 9 months, as Moshiach cannot take over from the Israeli gov't. Also, people think that this conflict is a mathematical equation - there is absolutely no political solution here. Only way is teshuva. There is different kochas in the world,  Yisrael, Yishmael and Edom. Ever time somebody r'l does an aveira, it gives kochas to Yishmael.  If the yidden did teshuva, and the yidden in Eretz Yisroel would become an am kadosh - then there will be 100% peace.

Israel is surrounded by 500 million Arabs, Iran is running a proxy war, and they have estimated 200k of missiles, and you all see what's happening in the north now - and the situation is about to explode. As much as I want Ukraine to win against Russia, sooner or later Ukraine is going to run out of weapons, and will lose the war. (And prior to the Ukrainian conflict, it was written hundreds of years ago, that the kaiser from Moscow will invade Kyiv, and which countries will align themselves with Russia, etc.  Hundreds of predictions already came true. The Chareidi world has a mesorah from the previous gedolim, ie Vilna Gaon, R' Moshe Dovid Valli (talmid of Ramchal), etc., of what will happen in the future.

Sooner or later, the medina will also run out of weapons, (doesn't look like they will take the Samson option) - and they are now in a rush to pullout of Gaza, as they are reporting that they need to conserve their weapons for the upcoming war with Lebanon.

Hashem is running the show, hashem is the one that makes wars, and before Moshiach comes, all the Avoda Zorahs of the world have to be destroyed.  Hashem has to make a melech kasha k'haman to get klal yisroel to do teshuva. Hashem has to show that we cannot rely on the army,  and hashem made this war happen - to make kochi V'otzem yodi to become botul . Our salvation will come only when we realize that we can only rely on our father in heaven, nothing else.

Then hashem will reveal himself to the world, and then the עשר המכות will look like child's play.

[aygart]

I don't think that that is the fundamental issue. The DL also have such worries, and seem to figure out a way to send their kids anyway.
It's how you view the state.
If you believe in Aschalta D'Geula, and there is a positive religious significance to the existence of the state etc... than you look at the army as a positive religious duty. Milchemes Mitzva and all that. And you make do with what exists, in spite of your reservations, in hope of improving the future reality. (A more extreme version of this makes the state the Getshke, and claims that a non observant soldier is a better jew than a shomer Tu"m who does not serve)
If you believe in Ikvsa D'Mishicha/Sof Galus, then there is NO religious/halachic significance to the state, just facts on the ground that these are the people who claim governing power, and you deal with it pragmatically. You don't have any "Eseh doche Lo Saase" pushing you to ignore the very real religious issues involved in the army. and you may believe that the alleged "melting pot" is shmad. ("alleged" just bec it was that way early in the state does not necessarily make it so today)
If you believe in Maase Satan, that you believe that serving is (at least abvezrayhu d') avoda zara/Kfirah

Anyway, I don't think that the leader of a small extreme sect within another pleg of litvishe speaks for the hashkafos of rov minyan u'binyan of charedim in EY

The idea that aschalta digeula should lead to over going to a makom shmad is laughable

[yfr bachur]

The idea that aschalta digeula should lead to over going to a makom shmad is laughable

From what I've seen, it's mutually exclusive.
No one who believes the medina is aschalta d'geula believes that the army is Shmad.
"it's not perfect, it could be improved, we need to work to fix it, it's not exactly how we would do it, we don't have a choice, it's the best there is in the meantime..."

Which leads back to the fundamental machlokes -
How do you see the state? As Shamad, something neutralish, or the beginnings of the future govt of moshiach?

[yfr bachur]

The chareidim are waiting for the medina to collapse. Both the Brisker Rav zt'l and the Chazon Ish zt'l said that the medina will last only a certain number of years. Then it will be controlled by a foreign entity for a period up to 9 months, as Moshiach cannot take over from the Israeli gov't. Also, people think that this conflict is a mathematical equation - there is absolutely no political solution here. Only way is teshuva. There is different kochas in the world,  Yisrael, Yishmael and Edom. Ever time somebody r'l does an aveira, it gives kochas to Yishmael.  If the yidden did teshuva, and the yidden in Eretz Yisroel would become an am kadosh - then there will be 100% peace.

Israel is surrounded by 500 million Arabs, Iran is running a proxy war, and they have estimated 200k of missiles, and you all see what's happening in the north now - and the situation is about to explode. As much as I want Ukraine to win against Russia, sooner or later Ukraine is going to run out of weapons, and will lose the war. (And prior to the Ukrainian conflict, it was written hundreds of years ago, that the kaiser from Moscow will invade Kyiv, and which countries will align themselves with Russia, etc.  Hundreds of predictions already came true. The Chareidi world has a mesorah from the previous gedolim, ie Vilna Gaon, R' Moshe Dovid Valli (talmid of Ramchal), etc., of what will happen in the future.

Sooner or later, the medina will also run out of weapons, (doesn't look like they will take the Samson option) - and they are now in a rush to pullout of Gaza, as they are reporting that they need to conserve their weapons for the upcoming war with Lebanon.

Hashem is running the show, hashem is the one that makes wars, and before Moshiach comes, all the Avoda Zorahs of the world have to be destroyed.  Hashem has to make a melech kasha k'haman to get klal yisroel to do teshuva. Hashem has to show that we cannot rely on the army,  and hashem made this war happen - to make kochi V'otzem yodi to become botul . Our salvation will come only when we realize that we can only rely on our father in heaven, nothing else.

Then hashem will reveal himself to the world, and then the עשר המכות will look like child's play.

Um, don't want to mess with your utopian emuna but...
The certain number of years have passed already.
There was basicaly no concept of non religious yidden for hundreds of years of galus - and galus was shver, much more than today.
All the "predictions" from hundreds of years ago, Maybe they refer to today, maybe not - anyway for more on vaguish predictions of the future Look up Nostradamus.
There were prediction from the Rishonim on when the Ketz would be, and they passed... It's not something that we know. Maybe dates Mesugal for the Geula... nothing more than that.

Otherwise +100