No Google play takes the "Android" out of the phone. It may as well be a windows phone or BlackBerry. They are just using the free OS.
Granted amazon appstore are better app gatekeepers, they actually debug apps submitted to them. But more then half the apps I use are not there. Webcame, security cam, web store backend.. etc.
I imagined Amazon taking the google route and offering a $250 top notch phone. Instead they are offering a $649 phone which will be no match to the new iphone and no match to the Galaxy S5.
The free 1 year prime does help with the cost, but I do not think that will be a deciding factor. People still do not equate Prime with videos and music, most people still thing it means free shipping.
Why did they go at&t exclusive? This is especially puzzling with the current market trend of unlocked phones. Exclusive deals with carries has been the downfall of many. Blackberry lost tremendous market share when they went exclusive on the much anticipated BB Torch (slider keyboard), if they would have released it for all carriers many would have stayed, but since they went AT&T exclusive they lost millions of customers who went android.
AT&T and apple both lost from their exclusive deal, AT&T network got overloaded and once the 2 year contract was up people were leaving then in troves because of the bad service. Apple lost as well because many people went with HTC and Moto androids because there was no iPhone on their carrier.
My forecast: At first amazon will announce that they sold out and there was more demand then expected (I am sure this PR is already prepared). Then once real numbers come in they will lower the price by at least $100.