Author Topic: Will Ebola spread in the U.S.? (Read 25023 times)

ChaimMoskowitz · « **Reply #140 on:** October 28, 2014, 11:28:24 AM »

Quote from: Sport on October 28, 2014, 11:12:33 AM

When the politicians stop talking about and doing every lame ploy to convince us how there is nothing to fear. Once the PR machines atart churning, Nothing gets me more convinced of the opposite.

We also have to look at the data we have so far. If all of sudden they find many on the subway were infected then by all means I will jump on the bandwagon. Right now the data shows the risk is slim to none.

zale · « **Reply #141 on:** October 28, 2014, 11:38:37 AM »

Quote from: ChaimMoskowitz on October 28, 2014, 11:28:24 AM

We also have to look at the data we have so far. If all of sudden they find many on the subway were infected then by all means I will jump on the bandwagon. Right now the data shows the risk is slim to none.

There is another piece of data to look at, and that is the mortality rate and horrific torture of Ebola.

Flu might be 70% easier to catch, but the mortality rate of the Flu (esp. in healthy adults) is somewhere around 0.00000001%. The mortality rate of Ebola is at around 70% in Africa. (there isn't enough data for the U.S. mortality rate, but as of now it's at around 1/7)

The Flu may keep you in bed for a week with a bad cough and a fever, Ebola can make one bleed from their ears, nose, eyes and anus.

So, if I sit down in a NYC subway train (which is already full of all kinds of germs), and ten people in my train car have the flu, and they are coughing and sneezing without covering their mouths, I'm still not worried even though there may be a 50% chance of catching the flu, because even if I caught it, at worst I would be out of work for 3-4 days. If one man sat down in a train car that has or may have Ebola, even if there is a 1% chance that I can catch it, I would be terrified, because I may end up G-D forbid dead.

This brings to mind one of Jackie Mason's classic jokes:

(don't remember the exact words)

"People say that you shouldn't be afraid to fly on a plane, because statistically, you are far more likely to get into a car accident than a plane accident.

Let me ask you something: when was the last time you bumped into someone you know, and they said "oy! my back is killing me, my plane crashed right into a mountain!"

Achas Veachas · « **Reply #142 on:** October 28, 2014, 11:42:29 AM »

Quote from: zale on October 28, 2014, 11:38:37 AM

There is another piece of data to look at, and that is the mortality rate and horrific torture of Ebola.

Flu might be 70% easier to catch, but the mortality rate of the Flu (esp. in healthy adults) is somewhere around 0.00000001%. The mortality rate of Ebola is at around 70% in Africa. (there isn't enough data for the U.S. mortality rate, but as of now it's at around 1/7)

The Flu may keep you in bed for a week with a bad cough and a fever, Ebola can make one bleed from their ears, nose, eyes and anus.

So, if I sit down in a NYC subway train (which is already full of all kinds of germs), and ten people in my train car have the flu, and they are coughing and sneezing without covering their mouths, I'm still not worried even though there may be a 50% chance of catching the flu, because even if I caught it, at worst I would be out of work for 3-4 days. If one man sat down in a train car that has or may have Ebola, even if there is a 1% chance that I can catch it, I would be terrified, because I may end up G-D forbid dead.

As of now it seems to be a lot smaller than that...

ChaimMoskowitz · « **Reply #143 on:** October 28, 2014, 11:47:18 AM »

Quote from: Achas Veachas on October 28, 2014, 11:42:29 AM

As of now it seems to be a lot smaller than that...

Last time I checked 0% is smaller than 1%.

Look everyone has valid points. If a person wants to volunteer for quarantine I think that is great and is what I would do. We just can't force people to do it at this time with what we know.

zale · « **Reply #144 on:** October 28, 2014, 11:49:38 AM »

Quote from: Achas Veachas on October 28, 2014, 11:42:29 AM

As of now it seems to be a lot smaller than that...

There hasn't been enough cases yet (thankfully) to know one way or another.

So far, two nurses caught it, and they did not EAT Duncan's saliva or body fluids.

The fact that the people living in Duncan's apartment didn't catch it is a good sign, but isn't enough to know how easily it can spread.

Achas Veachas · « **Reply #145 on:** October 28, 2014, 11:52:20 AM »

Quote from: zale on October 28, 2014, 11:49:38 AM

There hasn't been enough cases yet (thankfully) to know one way or another.

So far, two nurses caught it, and they did not EAT Duncan's saliva or body fluids.

The fact that the people living in Duncan's apartment didn't catch it is a good sign, but isn't enough to know how easily it can spread.

The fact that no one other than those nurses cought it seems to imply that the chances of catching it on the train (the example brought above) are close to 0%

zale · « **Reply #146 on:** October 28, 2014, 11:58:41 AM »

Quote from: Achas Veachas on October 28, 2014, 11:52:20 AM

The fact that no one other than those nurses cought it seems to imply that the chances of catching it on the train (the example brought above) are close to 0%

Except that there are too many variables involved here. It definitely lends credence to the medical community's statement that one is only contagious AFTER showing symptoms, but we don't know at what point the infected individual becomes somewhat contagious, and at what point becomes very contagious.

When the Dr. rode the subway, he either did not yet have a fever or was at 101. It's safe to say that at that stage the individual is not yet contagious. What about at 103-104? It would appear that Duncan was most contagious at the LATE stages of the virus, thus the reason why the two nurses caught it, while his family did not.

One thing is for certain: you do not have to EAT the patient's body fluids to catch it. It's definitely easier to catch than that. And there is still a possibility that the virus IS airborne at the late stages.

mb1 · « **Reply #147 on:** October 28, 2014, 09:33:34 PM »

and now he wants to import ebola

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/oct/28/state-department-plans-to-bring-foreign-ebola-pati/

ChaimMoskowitz · « **Reply #148 on:** October 29, 2014, 12:23:15 AM »

Quote from: mb1 on October 28, 2014, 09:33:34 PM

and now he wants to import ebola
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/oct/28/state-department-plans-to-bring-foreign-ebola-pati/

You ever see the Fram oil commercial?

henche · « **Reply #149 on:** October 29, 2014, 01:29:25 PM »

So now the selfless nurse says she won't obey the Maine home-quarantine either. Apparently, its more important for her to make her petty statements than to keep other people safe.

And you know what? Let's say she is correct and it is impossible for someone to get it from her--isnt it worth staying home to avoid scaring everyone in her area?

Sport · « **Reply #150 on:** October 29, 2014, 09:00:37 PM »

I just heard The head of UNICEF make the same point several of us have been making " if a volunteer is selfless enough to risk everything by treating Ebola victims then I would assume they would be selfless enough to protect the American people and quarantine themselves"

zale · « **Reply #151 on:** October 29, 2014, 11:03:13 PM »

Quote from: henche on October 29, 2014, 01:29:25 PM

So now the selfless nurse says she won't obey the Maine home-quarantine either. Apparently, its more important for her to make her petty statements than to keep other people safe.

And you know what? Let's say she is correct and it is impossible for someone to get it from her--isnt it worth staying home to avoid scaring everyone in her area?

Liberals use Africa as their "compassion" certificate. I don't believe for a second that these doctors and nurses go there purely for the sake of helping the less fortunate.

Charity starts at home. When the people in your home, your town, your city, your country are taken care of, then you can move on to third-world countries.

The arrogance of both her and the doctor (whom we now know LIED at first to the authorities, and only confessed that he took the subway AFTER they checked his credit card statements and Metrocard) proves my point beyond dispute.

Sport · « **Reply #152 on:** October 29, 2014, 11:07:02 PM »

Quote from: zale on October 29, 2014, 11:03:13 PM

Liberals use Africa as their "compassion" certificate. I don't believe for a second that these doctors and nurses go there purely for the sake of helping the less fortunate.

Charity starts at home. When the people in your home, your town, your city, your country are taken care of, then you can move on to third-world countries.

The arrogance of both her and the doctor (whom we now know LIED at first to the authorities, and only confessed that he took the subway AFTER they checked his credit card statements and Metrocard) proves my point beyond dispute.

While I don't completely disagree with your point, using anecdotal evidence (at best) hardly proves your point, let only proving it beyond dispute.

ChaimMoskowitz · « **Reply #153 on:** October 30, 2014, 12:21:23 AM »

zale - you have no idea what you are talking about.

ChaimMoskowitz · « **Reply #154 on:** October 30, 2014, 12:23:14 AM »

Quote from: henche on October 29, 2014, 01:29:25 PM

So now the ~~selfless~~ nurse says she won't obey the Maine home-quarantine either. Apparently, its more important for her to make her ~~petty~~ statements than to keep other people safe.

I cleaned up your statement so I could agree with it.