Author Topic: NFL Master Thread  (Read 263414 times)

Offline yuneeq

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Re: NFL Master Thread
« Reply #1180 on: October 20, 2020, 12:26:42 PM »
Meh - pretty high praise for something that worked in hindsight, but wasn't necessarily the best strategy. First of all, letting the other team score to get the ball back with a little more time is nothing new. If anything, this 'fake' penalty is worse, because the Texans ended up burning another whole minute before scoring (thus burning the 2 minute warning). Not only that, the Titans got lucky that Crennel decided to try to seal the game with a 2pt conversion instead of taking the extra point and forcing the Titans to not only score but convert their own 2pt.

The innovative strategy is to take a penalty to stop the clock, not the "let them score to get the ball back". It's 2nd and 1, they're likely gonna get the 1st down regardless, and they will for sure run the ball on that play. Taking the penalty stops the clock, saves time, and also made the Texans more likely to pass the ball. The fact the Texans burned another minute afterwards only makes the strategy more valuable.
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Offline Yehuda57

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Re: NFL Master Thread
« Reply #1181 on: October 20, 2020, 12:57:00 PM »

Offline skyguy918

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Re: NFL Master Thread
« Reply #1182 on: October 20, 2020, 01:05:43 PM »
The innovative strategy is to take a penalty to stop the clock, not the "let them score to get the ball back". It's 2nd and 1, they're likely gonna get the 1st down regardless, and they will for sure run the ball on that play. Taking the penalty stops the clock, saves time, and also made the Texans more likely to pass the ball. The fact the Texans burned another minute afterwards only makes the strategy more valuable.
My point is not that it was a bad/wrong move, but that it was only marginally effective. The fact that it worked out and they won the game had more to do with Crennel's incompetence and good playmaking by the Titans' offense.
They did it to eachother
https://www.tennesseetitans.com/video/bill-belichick-reacts-to-mike-vrabel-using-penalties-to-wind-down-the-clock
That's the opposite scenario, and they changed the rule this year to close that 'loophole'.
https://operations.nfl.com/the-rules/2020-rules-changes-and-points-of-emphasis/

Offline yuneeq

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Re: NFL Master Thread
« Reply #1183 on: October 20, 2020, 01:35:55 PM »
My point is not that it was a bad/wrong move, but that it was only marginally effective. The fact that it worked out and they won the game had more to do with Crennel's incompetence and good playmaking by the Titans' offense.

Without stopping the clock they lose, so I'd call it pretty effective, even if the actual gains were small. Yeh there were other factors, but what Crennel decides is not in his hands, Vrabel tilted the odds in his favor and it worked out.
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Offline skyguy918

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Re: NFL Master Thread
« Reply #1184 on: October 20, 2020, 02:36:49 PM »
Without stopping the clock they lose...
You mind lending me the crystal ball you used to determine that? Maybe without stopping the clock the Texans score earlier, and the exact same scenario plays out with more time, not less. Maybe instead of conceding the first down, they make the stop 2 plays in a row (which is exactly what they did at the goal line before the TD) and force the FG, and end up with the same amount of time on the clock - winning in regulation with a TD.

There are actually models for this stuff, that determine win probability after each play. ESPN's doesn't appear to show the penalty as a play on their graph, but pre penalty it was 82.7% (TEN) and post the next play (incomplete pass - which obviously would lower win probability) it was 78.8%. The penalty couldn't have been much of a boost in win probability.

Offline yuneeq

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Re: NFL Master Thread
« Reply #1185 on: October 20, 2020, 06:32:22 PM »
You mind lending me the crystal ball you used to determine that? Maybe without stopping the clock the Texans score earlier, and the exact same scenario plays out with more time, not less. Maybe instead of conceding the first down, they make the stop 2 plays in a row (which is exactly what they did at the goal line before the TD) and force the FG, and end up with the same amount of time on the clock - winning in regulation with a TD.

Or maybe there's a botched snap and the Titans recover. Not a likely scenario, so you don't take it into account when you're coaching to win. The odds of Texans not getting a 1st down after 2nd and 1 is extremely low. And if they don't get it on 2nd down, they get it on 3rd down and they just added 2 extra plays. The odds of them running the ball on 2nd and 1 is extremely high. The odds of passing (and not running the clock) on 1st down is much higher than on 2nd and 1. Give them the 1st down and try to stop them. If you don't stop them, at least you saved 40 seconds.


Quote
There are actually models for this stuff, that determine win probability after each play. ESPN's doesn't appear to show the penalty as a play on their graph, but pre penalty it was 82.7% (TEN) and post the next play (incomplete pass - which obviously would lower win probability) it was 78.8%. The penalty couldn't have been much of a boost in win probability.

"According to EdjSports, a data analysis company that works with NFL teams, the penalty actually increased Tennessee’s win probability from around 17% to around 22%. It was a very significant aspect of a very significant drive because it saved the Titans time and a timeout.

The penalty helped for a few reasons. On second-and-1, the Texans were likely to convert on one of their next two plays. If they had converted on second down and stayed inbounds, they would have snapped the ball next on first down with around 2:20 remaining – or with the Titans having used one of three precious timeouts."
https://sports.yahoo.com/titans-intentional-penalty-mike-vrabel-texans-161114454.html
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Offline skyguy918

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Re: NFL Master Thread
« Reply #1186 on: October 20, 2020, 07:58:14 PM »
Or maybe there's a botched snap and the Titans recover. Not a likely scenario, so you don't take it into account when you're coaching to win. The odds of Texans not getting a 1st down after 2nd and 1 is extremely low. And if they don't get it on 2nd down, they get it on 3rd down and they just added 2 extra plays. The odds of them running the ball on 2nd and 1 is extremely high. The odds of passing (and not running the clock) on 1st down is much higher than on 2nd and 1. Give them the 1st down and try to stop them. If you don't stop them, at least you saved 40 seconds.


"According to EdjSports, a data analysis company that works with NFL teams, the penalty actually increased Tennessee’s win probability from around 17% to around 22%. It was a very significant aspect of a very significant drive because it saved the Titans time and a timeout.

The penalty helped for a few reasons. On second-and-1, the Texans were likely to convert on one of their next two plays. If they had converted on second down and stayed inbounds, they would have snapped the ball next on first down with around 2:20 remaining – or with the Titans having used one of three precious timeouts."
https://sports.yahoo.com/titans-intentional-penalty-mike-vrabel-texans-161114454.html
The 'very significant' is an editorialization by Yahoo. High impact plays typical hit 25-30% swings.

And of course every model that does this is going to have different numbers based on how its formulas/calcs are set up.

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Re: NFL Master Thread
« Reply #1187 on: October 20, 2020, 08:51:33 PM »
Has there ever been a worse 5-1 team than the Bears?
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline yuneeq

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Re: NFL Master Thread
« Reply #1188 on: October 20, 2020, 09:18:52 PM »
Has there ever been a worse 5-1 team than the Bears?

Funny you ask, I just saw this earlier

https://twitter.com/FO_ASchatz/status/1318285160115208192

Don't ask me what DVOA is.
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Online CountValentine

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Re: NFL Master Thread
« Reply #1189 on: October 20, 2020, 09:24:47 PM »
Don't ask me what DVOA is.
Defense-adjusted Value Over Average
Does that help?  :)
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline yuneeq

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Re: NFL Master Thread
« Reply #1190 on: October 20, 2020, 10:06:22 PM »
Defense-adjusted Value Over Average
Does that help?  :)

That much I know, but I don't know the math behind, just that people care for it.
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Offline mercaz1

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Re: NFL Master Thread
« Reply #1191 on: October 21, 2020, 11:16:55 AM »
by taking the penalty the Titans also stopped them from getting an extra first down as they were not inside the 20

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Re: NFL Master Thread
« Reply #1192 on: October 27, 2020, 10:40:23 PM »
Has there ever been a worse 5-1 team than the Bears?
Has there ever been a worse 5-2 team than the Bears?  :)
@yuneeq
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline Kobe Bryant

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Re: NFL Master Thread
« Reply #1193 on: November 08, 2020, 09:04:35 PM »

Offline Dan

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Re: NFL Master Thread
« Reply #1195 on: November 17, 2020, 07:27:33 PM »
Has there ever been a worse 5-2 team than the Bears?  :)
@yuneeq
Has there ever been a worse 5-5 team than the Bears?  :)
@yuneeq
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline Dawie

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Re: NFL Master Thread
« Reply #1196 on: November 18, 2020, 12:46:28 PM »
Has there ever been a worse 5-5 team than the Bears?  :)
@yuneeq
you're only as good as the back of your baseball card ... :P
(or something like that )

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Re: NFL Master Thread
« Reply #1197 on: November 22, 2020, 11:24:25 PM »
Sorry Tom you just been replaced by Mahomes!
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Offline Lurker

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Re: NFL Master Thread
« Reply #1198 on: November 25, 2020, 05:27:10 PM »
Is there anything more 2020 than losing the best Thanksgiving game?
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Offline Lurker

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Re: NFL Master Thread
« Reply #1199 on: December 01, 2020, 02:54:25 PM »
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