Paypal August Mystery Rewards

[yyonah]

Spend $150 in August, get back $10 to $100 in September. Targeted (they say you have to get an invitation).
https://www.paypal.com/us/webapps/mpp/august-mystery-rewards

[Jm1248]

We’re sorry, your account is not eligible for this US promotion.
Here are some deals you can take advantage of now.

[yhaller14]

Thanks my account was eligible

[yyonah]

I noticed that the odds don't add up to 100%, so I inquired. This was the reply: "It is not a guarantee that you will get a reward as soon as your register, but you will have a 50% chance of getting the $10.00 USD reward." Given that the invitation says: "Spend a minimum of $150 with PayPal in August and you'll earn a mystery reward between $10 and $100 to spend in September," I complained.

[AsherO]

I noticed that the odds don't add up to 100%, so I inquired. This was the reply: "It is not a guarantee that you will get a reward as soon as your register, but you will have a 50% chance of getting the $10.00 USD reward." Given that the invitation says: "Spend a minimum of $150 with PayPal in August and you'll earn a mystery reward between $10 and $100 to spend in September," I complained.

So they want me to spend $150 with the hopes that I'll be one of the  50% that get between $10-150 USD? Sounds ridiculous to me.

[yyonah]

If you look at the T&C, you actually don't have to spend anything (other than a stamp). Since it's effectively a sweepstakes, they have a way to enter by sending an entry by mail.

[AsherO]

If you look at the T&C, you actually don't have to spend anything (other than a stamp). Since it's effectively a sweepstakes, they have a way to enter by sending an entry by mail.

If I mail in an entry I have a 50% chance of winning $10-150?

[incendia]

If I mail in an entry I have a 50% chance of winning $10-150?

no you have 54.93% chance of winning $10-$100

your expected value = $6.31

[Work-for-ur-muny]

If I mail in an entry I have a 50% chance of winning $10-150?

Hence, your signature... 

[MarkR]

There's also another offer that says you WILL get $15 if you spend $150 in August. Seems to be directed mostly towards new accounts without activity.

[yyonah]

I complained that the invitation said "you'll earn," which sounds pretty definite to me. This is the reply I got from a different person: I apologize for the confusion in the previous email. I assure you that you'll be receiving a reward between $10-$100 USD if you're eligible for the offer. Please ensure to register in the promotion before making the August transactions. It's not a guarantee how much you'll get within $10-$100 USD when the offers ends. It'll be randomly distributed to eligible customer and the odds of getting certain amount are in the Terms and Conditions:

$10 award: 1 in 2.
$15 award: 1 in 34.
$25 award: 1 in 67.
$100 award: 1 in 200.
Obviously, math is not a strong point.