US Politics/2016 Election Pick Your Poison Master Thread

[yuneeq]

I certainly do not. I said LFPR doesn't tell us much that isn't better told by the unemployment rate. What the unemployment numbers show is that we're in about as good a position as were before the crash in '08. Of course we're not at 100% employment, and there's always room for growth.

So if unemployment rate goes down to 1% but LFPR drops to 50%, that's an indicator that the economy is just as good as before 08? I guess you are fine with using one number without any context to determine the health of the economy. Too bad the Federal Reserve aren't so smart, because despite the unemployment rate gains they constantly repeat how cautious they need to be because things aren't as good as they seem.

He never said that. In fact he repeatedly used the appropriate term, unemployment rate, and you replied with LFPR.

No kidding, because I believe in knowing the actual unemployment number before it gets chopped up into a million pieces.
He thinks LFPR is an irrelevant number that no one should ever bring up in regards to unemployment. I think it's important to consider in addition to the unemployment rate.

The point is that monetary and economic policy have a far greater effect on the unemployment rate than the LFPR. The president doesn't control demographics. At best a president can try to use policy to react to demographics. So using the 'low' LFPR to detract from the prior administration is disingenuous - as is ignoring the stabilization of unemployment during that period.

I'm sorry, but Janet Yellen controls monetary policy.

[aygart]

And she is continuing with the policies put in place by Bernanke who was a Bush appointee

[Cheesecake]

Is that you Trump? I guess you believe the unemployment rate is 41% to. 

I said nothing about Trump or unemployment. I have no idea what you are talking about.

[skyguy918]

So if unemployment rate goes down to 1% but LFPR drops to 50%, that's an indicator that the economy is just as good as before 08? I guess you are fine with using one number without any context to determine the health of the economy. Too bad the Federal Reserve aren't so smart, despite the unemployment rate gains they constantly repeat how cautious they need to be because things aren't as good as they seem.

That depends on how much of the 50% is due to demographics. If U-6 was at 0%, then what does it help if you create more jobs? You basically have no one to fill them anyway. The idea of labor force/unemployment reflecting on the economy is that there are workers available that the economy isn't using - if half the labor force died it would tank our economic output, but it wouldn't be relevant to a discussion on policy. LFPR doesn't reflect very well how many workers are available. The BLS's unemployment figures do a much better job of that. Even more targeted figures, such as the prime age EPOP referenced in the article cholent quoted, may yield further improvements.

No kidding, because I believe in knowing the actual unemployment number before it gets chopped up into a million pieces.
He thinks LFPR is an irrelevant number that no one should ever bring up in regards to unemployment. I think it's important to consider in addition to the unemployment rate.

It's use in that discussion is marginal. And it's not like that's something that actual economists are split on.

I'm sorry, but Janet Yellen controls monetary policy.

My point was not specifically about the president, but about how the government can effect change. If you want more about the president specifically, give this a read:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-presidents-economic-decisions-matter-eventually/

One key quote from there:

Outside of crises, presidents can’t do much to boost the economy in the short term. But they can hurt it.

[hachover]

There was a study released a few months ago that concluded 45% of US households pay no Federal Income Tax, revised from 40% in 2013. Could that be the confusion? The statistic certainly has nothing to do with the unemployment rate, but the similarity of the figures makes me wonder if someone brought an orange to an apple fight.

[aygart]

Who is she going to register with anyhow? I think she will realize that the "registries" were "alternate facts".

[JTZ]

No kidding, because I believe in knowing the actual unemployment number before it gets chopped up into a million pieces.
He thinks LFPR is an irrelevant number that no one should ever bring up in regards to unemployment. I think it's important to consider in addition to the unemployment rate.

I never said that either. You have dug your whole so deep and lost all creditability when you act so disingenuous. As you have been told already learn at least the basic facts about a subject before you discuss it.

[aygart]

Even better
http://matzav.com/not-a-coincidence-trumps-media-troubles-surged-when-jared-kushner-was-observing-shabbos/

This deserves a crosspost for JTZ.

[JTZ]

They found the voter fraud as Trump describes it. It is in the White house including his son-in-law. 
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2017/01/26/it-turns-out-trump-son-in-law-jared-kushner-is-also-registered-to-vote-in-two-states/?utm_term=.165df868de1f

[Cheesecake]

They found the voter fraud as Trump describes it. It is in the White house including his son-in-law. 
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2017/01/26/it-turns-out-trump-son-in-law-jared-kushner-is-also-registered-to-vote-in-two-states/?utm_term=.165df868de1f

Only there? That's amazing!

[JTZ]

Only there? That's amazing!

Not only there. The next stop is the RNC. 
You missed the major point. Read what I wrote. 

[zh cohen]

They found the voter fraud as Trump describes it. It is in the White house including his son-in-law. 
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2017/01/26/it-turns-out-trump-son-in-law-jared-kushner-is-also-registered-to-vote-in-two-states/?utm_term=.165df868de1f

.

So am I, and I assume most of the people here who have moved. I didn't even know that I am supposed to cancel my registration.

Why can't there be a little box on the voter registration form asking if you are registered in a different state, and then they send a notice to the old state?

[yuneeq]

The BLS's unemployment figures do a much better job of that. Even more targeted figures, such as the prime age EPOP referenced in the article cholent quoted, may yield further improvements.

At the end of the day- do you believe that employment rate is a good measure of Presidential economic performance?
How about stock market performance from the day they take office until the day they leave?

Lots of incomplete information is being used by JTZ to prove that Obama was amazing for the economy when the numbers provided prove nothing. Now he is resorting to personal attacks and claiming that I'm being disingenuous, must still be upset that I proved he occasionally enjoys trolling... http://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=5531.msg1647550#msg1647550

[Yehuda57]

Who is she going to register with anyhow? I think she will realize that the "registries" were "alternate facts".

See, you can sit and laugh at how he trolled people into a voter fraud investigation, and how we shouldn't take him literally about the registries, etc. etc. But how in the heck is anyone supposed to know when he is trolling and when not? When Scott Adams or James Taranto says so? Maybe it is when JTZ says so? A president who is openly governing by way of trolling is sickening as it is pathetic.

Believe me, I can enjoy liberals being trolled as much as anyone (Ted Cruz brutalizing Deadspin was awesome), but just realize that Trump is not a Republican or a conservative, and he is trolling the GOP, conservatives, his supporters, and you just as much as he is trolling the media and Madelaine Albright.

Border wall? - Oh, obviously that's a troll.
Except the Executive order is already signed.
Yeah, but he can't force Mexico to pay for it, so it's just a show.
https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/status/824712911511756805

Yay! So now us consumers get to pay 20% more for goods in exchange for a useless waste of concrete and a TSA level sense of security. Troll governance is so much fun. ETA: This tweet (and many others like it) was incorrect and misreported.

Same thing with the dog whistles. They are only heard by dogs, blah blah blah - Except during the campaign he was repeatedly questioned about using America First when it has such toxic roots and connotations. So when he insists on using it in his inauguration speech, it is clear he knows *exactly* what he is saying and how it will be taken. He is pandering to his rabid nationalist base while ticking off 60% of the country, in his inauguration address no less. Hilarious! Because political correctness has gone too far! Ha ha! screw political correctness, let's pander to nazis!

The one thing I and many others got wrong is thinking he is incompetent. Let's dispel the myth that Trump doesn't know what he is doing, he knows exactly what he is doing, which makes him, much, much more fearful.

You like posting tweets. Here's one.

https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/824277373961048064

[aygart]

See, you can sit and laugh at how he trolled people into a voter fraud investigation, and how we shouldn't take him literally about the registries, etc. etc. But how in the heck is anyone supposed to know when he is trolling and when not? When Scott Adams or James Taranto says so? Maybe it is when JTZ says so? A president who is openly governing by way of trolling is sickening as it is pathetic.

Believe me, I can enjoy liberals being trolled as much as anyone (Ted Cruz brutalizing Deadspin was awesome), but just realize that Trump is not a Republican or a conservative, and he is trolling the GOP, conservatives, his supporters, and you just as much as he is trolling the media and Madelaine Albright.

Border wall? - Oh, obviously that's a troll.
Except the Executive order is already signed.
Yeah, but he can't force Mexico to pay for it, so it's just a show.
https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/status/824712911511756805

Yay! So now us consumers get to pay 20% more for goods in exchange for a useless waste of concrete and a TSA level sense of security. Troll governance is so much fun. ETA: This tweet (and many others like it) was incorrect and misreported.

Same thing with the dog whistles. They are only heard by dogs, blah blah blah - Except during the campaign he was repeatedly questioned about using America First when it has such toxic roots and connotations. So when he insists on using it in his inauguration speech, it is clear he knows *exactly* what he is saying and how it will be taken. He is pandering to his rabid nationalist base while ticking off 60% of the country, in his inauguration address no less. Hilarious! Because political correctness has gone too far! Ha ha! screw political correctness, let's pander to nazis!

The one thing I and many others got wrong is thinking he is incompetent. Let's dispel the myth that Trump doesn't know what he is doing, he knows exactly what he is doing, which makes him, much, much more fearful.

You like posting tweets. Here's one.

https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/824277373961048064

Are you trying to convince me that Trump is not an ideal president and that I should not like his tweets etc.? I have written that many times already and I will repeat. I HATE THE WAY TRUMP DOES THESE THINGS. I still enjoy watching the entertainment when the media and the liberals go crazy

[good sam]

Doomsday (look at the faces on these clowns)

http://wapo.st/2jj5OlT

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2017/01/26/the-doomsday-clock-just-moved-again-its-now-two-and-a-half-minutes-to-midnight/?utm_term=.08c62ed5bdb2

[JTZ]

Doomsday (look at the faces on these clowns)

http://wapo.st/2jj5OlT

I didn't see Trump. 

[Cheesecake]

Not only there. The next stop is the RNC. 
You missed the major point. Read what I wrote. 

I think you are missing the major point, that the system is extremely vulnerable to fraud, and needs to be fixed.

There should be a registry of SS #s eligible to vote, and some type of central system keeping tabs on who voted where (but not for whom).

There also needs to be an ID requirement.

[zh cohen]

I just realized that I am registered in two states, and i have no idea how to cancel the old one...

[aygart]

I would guess that the vast majority of people who moved between states are registered in both

Eta. From what I can see I am not