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Thread summary:

Trump walks in a room.

1. Moshe123 shoots at him because he is pure evil, 2. ilherman+hachover jump in front of the bullets because Trump is our savior. 3. aygart tackles Moshe123 because Trump is better than HRC, 4. but Baruch can't stand Trump so he tells aygart he's crazy and Trump is a madman. 5. ExGingi would like to point out that who cares what he is, all that matters is the supreme court nominations. 6. Dan and others aren't really sure how this makes them feel plus they don't really want to drink poison. 7. Spoiler alert: Moshe123's gun was empty, it was just a blank.

And Freddie is in the back of the room just cooking his cholent. Until he announces that there are TWO menu choices, Pareve Cholent or Vegetable Lasagna. While etech0 figured out that they are both poisoned.


Repeat x100.

And then Hilary walks into the room with the most confidence a candidate has had in recent history. She is so confident that she eats both the Pareve Cholent and Vegetable Lasagna. Everyone is the room is aghast, they don't know how this happened, could it be Comey is behind this poisoning or was it that her Obamacare premiums were to high to get her the help she needed.

Everyone stared as she choked and was cast into oblivion on November, 8, 2016 the last day she was heard from in the public eye.

Moshe123, ilherman, hachover, Baruch, ExGingi, Dan, Freddie, etech0, and the rest of America are in total shock and hope that so long as Trump doesn't eat any Pareve Cholent and Vegetable Lasagna and stays true to his supreme court nominees this may be the greatest thing to happen since the CSR and GC's.

But remember this may be the beginning of the end...

P.S. Thanks to cognitive dissonance aygart, Michael Moore, and Scott Adams knew the whole time that Trump could win, unfortunately for JTZ he may be off DDF for the next 4 years due to his mandatory 3 times daily consumption of CROW!

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Sub notes:

Nov 8 : Time to edit the wiki. Biggest upset in American History according to Michael Isikoff.


http://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=57647.0

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump?lang=en
http://blog.dilbert.com/
http://fivethirtyeight.com/
All Political Ads - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCvuOH0oJFwElBgRKz-eMlLw

As things turns out, the most prescient view on this election was that of Michael Moore! Though Scott Adams is also claiming a high view level of prescience.


Poll

Who are you voting for?

Clinton
12 (10.3%)
Trump
67 (57.3%)
Johnson
2 (1.7%)
Other (Write in)
8 (6.8%)
I don't vote in general and won't be voting this year
9 (7.7%)
I do vote in general, but won't be this year
19 (16.2%)

Total Members Voted: 117

Author Topic: US Politics/2016 Election Pick Your Poison Master Thread  (Read 1208646 times)

Offline Sammy82

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Re: US Politics/2016 Election Pick Your Poison Master Thread
« Reply #27300 on: July 11, 2019, 12:54:39 PM »
If the polling is across a random sample, a few hundred to a few thousand is all that's needed. Your shul would not be a random sample.

Contrary to what most people think, polling is fairly accurate - even in thr 2016 election. Trump won a few close states but by a small enough margin that it was in most polls' margin of error.
Did those polls have such a small sample? I would think that by a general election the sample would be much bigger, no? I'm not saying that polls aren't accurate to some extent, just wondering if this one is using a smaller than usual sample and therefore not as accurate.

Online shaulyaakov

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Re: US Politics/2016 Election Pick Your Poison Master Thread
« Reply #27301 on: July 11, 2019, 01:07:55 PM »
Did those polls have such a small sample? I would think that by a general election the sample would be much bigger, no? I'm not saying that polls aren't accurate to some extent, just wondering if this one is using a smaller than usual sample and therefore not as accurate.

No - the marginal value of adding people past a few hundred is negligible. For a presidential forecast there would be more people polled, since the presidential election is made up of 50 state tallies + DC. In this case, it's a national poll, so having only a few hundred would work.

The main issue that election have isn't the number of people - it's making sure you get a representative cross section. Certain demographics are more likely to respond to a poll and be reachable. Also demographics vote at different rates, so pollsters need to model register vs. likely voters. An approval poll is just an indicator of favorability and doesn't need to deal with whether people will vote, so it should be fairly accurate.

Offline Sammy82

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Re: US Politics/2016 Election Pick Your Poison Master Thread
« Reply #27302 on: July 11, 2019, 01:18:24 PM »
No - the marginal value of adding people past a few hundred is negligible. For a presidential forecast there would be more people polled, since the presidential election is made up of 50 state tallies + DC. In this case, it's a national poll, so having only a few hundred would work.

The main issue that election have isn't the number of people - it's making sure you get a representative cross section. Certain demographics are more likely to respond to a poll and be reachable. Also demographics vote at different rates, so pollsters need to model register vs. likely voters. An approval poll is just an indicator of favorability and doesn't need to deal with whether people will vote, so it should be fairly accurate.
I hear. Makes sense. Thanks for the lesson.

Online CountValentine

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Re: US Politics/2016 Election Pick Your Poison Master Thread
« Reply #27303 on: July 11, 2019, 02:53:19 PM »
Makes sense.
Then it does not belong in this thread.  :)
You're so far up Trump's a** you can see Giuliani's feet.  HT Baruch

Offline gingyguy

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Re: US Politics/2016 Election Pick Your Poison Master Thread
« Reply #27304 on: July 11, 2019, 02:56:51 PM »
Then it does not belong in this thread.  :)
Smartest thing you've said since your Resurrection!
May you slide down the banister of happiness & get many splinters of success up your career.

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You're so far up Trump's a** you can see Giuliani's feet.  HT Baruch

Online shaulyaakov

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Re: US Politics/2016 Election Pick Your Poison Master Thread
« Reply #27306 on: July 12, 2019, 09:26:40 AM »
 BuT He NeEdS to EnFoRcE the VoTiNg RiGhTs AcT.

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Re: US Politics/2016 Election Pick Your Poison Master Thread
« Reply #27307 on: July 12, 2019, 09:28:34 AM »
BuT He NeEdS to EnFoRcE the VoTiNg RiGhTs AcT.
Ouch tough on the eyes.
You're so far up Trump's a** you can see Giuliani's feet.  HT Baruch

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Re: US Politics/2016 Election Pick Your Poison Master Thread
« Reply #27308 on: July 12, 2019, 10:32:49 AM »
They should ask "Have you ever cheated on your spouse"?
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-folds-latest-round-perennial-american-battle-citizenship-census-n1029096?cid=par-xfinity_20190712
not sure how that relates to voting, redistricting and money allocations that the census is meant for 

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Re: US Politics/2016 Election Pick Your Poison Master Thread
« Reply #27309 on: July 12, 2019, 10:37:08 AM »
not sure how that relates to voting, redistricting and money allocations that the census is meant for
The purpose of the census is to count everyone. You don't need to know if the are a citizen or if they cheated on their spouse.
You're so far up Trump's a** you can see Giuliani's feet.  HT Baruch

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Re: US Politics/2016 Election Pick Your Poison Master Thread
« Reply #27310 on: July 12, 2019, 10:39:43 AM »
The purpose of the census is to count everyone. You don't need to know if the are a citizen or if they cheated on their spouse.
so now we are counting tourists too?

Offline aygart

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Re: US Politics/2016 Election Pick Your Poison Master Thread
« Reply #27311 on: July 12, 2019, 11:32:15 AM »
so now we are counting tourists too?
::)
You have the right to remain silent. Anything you say can and will be used to start a religious discussion.

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Re: US Politics/2016 Election Pick Your Poison Master Thread
« Reply #27312 on: July 12, 2019, 11:34:59 AM »
so now we are counting tourists too?

The Administration didn't make the claim that non-citizens shouldn't be counted, since that's not the law.

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Re: US Politics/2016 Election Pick Your Poison Master Thread
« Reply #27313 on: July 12, 2019, 12:17:03 PM »
You want to count non-citizens go for it. You just can't use the census for it.
You're so far up Trump's a** you can see Giuliani's feet.  HT Baruch

Offline aygart

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Re: US Politics/2016 Election Pick Your Poison Master Thread
« Reply #27314 on: July 12, 2019, 12:26:04 PM »
You want to count non-citizens go for it. You just can't use the census for it.
Why not?
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