US Politics/2016 Election Pick Your Poison Master Thread

[username]

Even if IL votes count they don't count.

They count double!

[aygart]

They count double!

My point was that if it reaches a point where IL is a real contest it is already a landslide.

[ilherman]

You gave Nevada, New Hampshire, and North Carolina (25 votes) to Trump, despite the fact that Clinton is still currently leading in those states. That explains why I came out with 293-245 Clinton.

We are seeing Trump gaining ground though, yesterday we saw a 19 vote swing in favor of Trump.

Well that is not exactly accurate. In NV he is ahead in every poll taken in September. In NC and NH its 50/50 with some polls showing Trump having the lead and some show Clinton. In any case, that gives Trump a 50 percent chance of winning those states. Or even more than 50 percent considering the enthusiasm in the Trump camp. Hence my map and concern.

[yuneeq]

Well that is not exactly accurate. In NV he is ahead in every poll taken in September. In NC and NH its 50/50 with some polls showing Trump having the lead and some show Clinton. In any case, that gives Trump a 50 percent chance of winning those states. Or even more than 50 percent considering the enthusiasm in the Trump camp. Hence my map and concern.

See my reply above, you gave all the 50/50 states to Trump.
That makes it a prediction (nothing wrong with that).

[ExGingi]

They count double!

Didn't know it was entire state of IL, but Chicago is definitely autonomous counting.

[yuneeq]

Well that is not exactly accurate. In NV he is ahead in every poll taken in September. In NC and NH its 50/50 with some polls showing Trump having the lead and some show Clinton. In any case, that gives Trump a 50 percent chance of winning those states. Or even more than 50 percent considering the enthusiasm in the Trump camp. Hence my map and concern.

I just saw that 538 (Now-cast) has every state the same as you besides NH (and part of Maine).
So it is a lot closer right now than I thought. 275-263

[aygart]

From Drudge:
TRUMP TROLLS MEDIA
LOL

[Yehuda57]

From Drudge:
TRUMP TROLLS MEDIA
LOL

Hilarious. At what stage does it move from trolling the media to trolling you?

[zale]

Hilarious. At what stage does it move from trolling the media to trolling you?

Let's not make this personal.

[ExGingi]

Interesting interview on Bloomberg today with Alan Dershowitz about his latest book "Electile Dysfunction: A Guide for Unaroused Voters"

[yoohoo]

Interesting interview on Bloomberg today with Alan Dershowitz about his latest book "Electile Dysfunction: A Guide for Unaroused Voters"

saw him on w/ Megan kelly few days ago. Strange conversation it was...

[aygart]

[good sam]

LOL!
"Crooked" Hillary Clinton

https://www.instagram.com/p/BKdyHLdjKF6/?taken-by=realdonaldtrump

[good sam]

Love it
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=HjI6K4m4E80&feature=youtu.be

[churnbabychurn]

Love it
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=HjI6K4m4E80&feature=youtu.be

Where the video of the actual event?

[aygart]

Where the video of the actual event?

The guy is quacked. There are people there behind her on either side of the flag which is what you see on the cell phones and who she is waving to.

[Zalc]

Where the video of the actual event?

Original: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RQ7PJpQ7cRA&t=26m55s
At 26:55

It's not staged. What you are seeing is telephoto compression in action.
Google it.

The cell phones are wide angle lenses and the people closer to the camera then they are to Hillary, so the scene in the cell phones is that of the entire stage (you can see the 6 flags of the stage in the cell phone cameras).
Hillary would only take up a tiny bit of their screen.

[Baruch]

LOL. These are the same guys who think Sandy Hook was staged.

The only conspiracy I believe, is that Michelle Obama is a male 

[aygart]

http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Twilight-of-American-Jewry-467862

[aygart]

Poll analysis by aygart:

Until a few days ago the entire tightening of the race had been due to a rise in Trump's numbers while Hillary had been staying steady. We are now seeing HRC's numbers dropping both in the 2 and 4 way race polls. Over the last few days DJT's numbers have dropped a bit as well but with HRC's dropping more the race has tightened further and is now within one percentage point. In the 4 way race some of HRC's support seems to have gone to Johnson and Stein.




What should be more concerning to the Clinto campaign though are the state polls and the current electoral map.

THis is the current RCP no toss-up map.


HRC is still leading with above 270 but this does not tell the whole story

PA still seems to be in the Clinton Camp, but the good news ends there.



There are enough states where recent polls are showing Trump ahead or close to it to be a real concern to HRC. It is important to keep in mind how the national numbers changed drastically ove the last week and a half. Polls from before that time are not really indicative of the current state of the race. With this in mind let us review how safe some states are for Clinton.

The most recent poll in CO has Trump +4. This is the only poll in the state since September. If we flip that it becomes C 284 T 254

The most recent poll in NV has T +1 with the most recent poll prior to that one on Sep 8. If we flip that to Trump it becomes C 278 T 260. Close but not quite there yet.

In NC the most recent poll has a tie but other polls have been in both directions

WI has not had a poll since August. The most recent had C+5 and +3 but if there was similar movement there as there has been in other states it can well be flipped to trump now.

Either one of those would put Trump over 270.

NH is also very close with the most recent poll Sep 8 showig C+2 which can easily have dissolved by now. That in itself would not be enough.



Of course the map can move drastically in either direction between now and election day, but things are definitely looking scary for Clinton now.