US Politics/2016 Election Pick Your Poison Master Thread

[JTZ]

Neither does mine. But my opinion is still that it came from nothing. There has been no economic growth to speak of in the last decade. In case you're worried that I'm criticizing BO, don't be

You can criticize him all you want. You either have to give the president credit for what the market does or you don't. No moving the goalpost.

[aygart]

You can criticize him all you want. You either have to give the president credit for what the market does or you don't. No moving the goalpost.

Agreed. Don't.

[skyguy918]

Agreed. Don't.

But.. but... you did. That's what I quoted you on.

[JTZ]

Don't.

Didn't you give Trump credit? 

[JTZ]

But.. but... you did. That's what I quoted you on.

Didn't you give Trump credit? 

To funny!!!

[hachover]

You can criticize him all you want. You either have to give the president credit for what the market does or you don't. No moving the goalpost.

I know you think you're being very fair with this goalpost concept, but it doesn't make any sense to connect a president to equity movements unless you can draw a line. Sitting at a correspondent's dinner doesn't tie in to market movements. TARP does. Give me substance, not goalposts

[good sam]

I don't know the answer to this question, but curious: How many presidents have left office with the markets (DOW and S&P 500) lower than when they took office?

[hachover]

I don't know the answer to this question, but curious: How many presidents have left office with the markets (DOW and S&P 500) lower than when they took office?

I'm sure you can google the answer, but would you be able to separate the creditable movement from coincidence?

[JTZ]

Give me substance,

All that can be argued from ones point of view. You can't argue with goalposts.

Has unemployment gone up or down since he took office. No one agrees on that but with goalposts we have our answer.

[username]

For every president it is from the day they take office to the day they leave. I don't believe in moving the goalposts when it is to my benefit like some here.

1.Do you  credit President Carter for getting the 52 hostages freed by signing the Algiers Accords on Jan 19 '81?
2.Is there sometimes a little leeway in moving the goalposts?
Curious as to what your answer are, both are yes/no questions.

[hachover]

All that can be argued from ones point of view. You can't argue with goalposts.

Has unemployment gone up or down since he took office. No one agrees on that but with goalposts we have our answer.

True, you can't argue with goalposts. Does that make it a meaningful rubric?

[good sam]

I'm sure you can google the answer, but would you be able to separate the creditable movement from coincidence?

I'm not sure the move can be credited to Trump, but it's certainly astonishing comparing actual market activity compared to expected market activity in the event of a Trump victory.

It's much like Trump's electoral victory. It's not a landslide by any stretch, but compared to how he was expected to perform EVEN with a win, it sure as hell looks like a landslide.

[JTZ]

True, you can't argue with goalposts. Does that make it a meaningful rubric?

How about monetary policy is responsible for the 100%+ rise?

[aygart]

Didn't you give Trump credit? 

My long standing position has been that a president cannot be clearly credited it blamed for long term market trends. Small blips can sometimes be attributed to them but are not a way to measure of a president or his policies. This short term blip is likely attributable to trump but is irrelevant over the long term. It is a prime example of why using the goals of inauguration day makes no sense. How can they be placed? There is no reliable method. Over the long term a market movement may or may not have to do with the president anyhow so who cares.

[hachover]

I'm not sure the move can be credited to Trump, but it's certainly astonishing comparing actual market activity compared to expected market activity in the event of a Trump victory.

It's much like Trump's electoral victory. It's not a landslide by any stretch, but compared to how he was expected to perform EVEN with a win, it sure as hell looks like a landslide.

You certainly can't credit Trump at this point. This is all wild speculation. If he says he is going to cut corporate taxes, and stocks go up because people are willing to speculate based on that statement, then one of two things can happen. Either he does cut corporate taxes, and the companies actually are worth more than they were under the higher tax regime, or he doesn't cut and their value comes plummeting down.

I personally think the latter is more likely scenario, given what I know about corporate tax policy. But if I'm wrong, I will definitely give Trump credit at that point for contributing to a higher stock market.

[hachover]

How about monetary policy is responsible for the 100%+ rise?

Please explain

[aygart]

How about monetary policy is responsible for the 100%+ rise?

In that case the only president who could be credited would be W who appointed those at the Fed who set that policy. This would mean that your goalposts are meaningless and should not be used. Everything is then subjective and left for everyone to interpret and give credit based on their personal views.

[aygart]

How about monetary policy is responsible for the 100%+ rise?

So now Yellen wants to make sure policy changes before the next president comes in.

[elit]

Can you guys create your own thread for the never ending circular fight between aygart and JTZ

[aygart]

Can you guys create your own thread for the never ending circular fight between aygart and JTZ

isn't that this one?