US Politics/2016 Election Pick Your Poison Master Thread

[aygart]

[JTZ]

You said there's no evidence of fraud.
I said there's evidence of fraud (and quoted a study yesterday proving so) but the question is  the extent.
You reply that I need to bring evidence to the extent. (Moving goalposts is a familiar activity).
There is no evidence to the extent just yet, but there are studies suggesting that the extent can be concerning, so I think it's something worth investigating further.

If you took "no evidence of voter fraud" to mean not a single vote was cast fraudulently then not much I can say to that.

[aygart]

If you took "no evidence of voter fraud" to mean not a single vote was cast fraudulently then not much I can say to that.

How would we ever get evidence of the extent of it if every time someone suggests that we look into it everyone yells that there is no evidence?

[JTZ]

How would we ever get evidence of the extent of it if every time someone suggests that we look into it everyone yells that there is no evidence?

I have no problem looking into voter fraud. The problem I have is the reason why. It is he can't accept the fact he lost the popular vote.

[JTZ]

http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/01/national-park-service-defies-trump-gag-order-tweets-climate-change-facts

[aygart]

http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/01/national-park-service-defies-trump-gag-order-tweets-climate-change-facts

Whoever did it should gave disciplinary action.

[JTZ]

Whoever did it should gave disciplinary action.

Trump ordered the blackout. He should discipline himself? 

[Yehuda57]

Whoever did it should gave disciplinary action.

Could be they are about to quit. This American Life had an interesting segment this week about that.

[JTZ]

The crash will have nothing to do with the President, which is why these "goalposts" as stationary as they may be, are completely meaningless.

The presidents trade policies and tax policies among other things have no effect on the market. Ok I got it now. 

[springles]

When JTZ speaks no one listens. 
Most of it hasn't effected anything yet. Give it sometime. Do you have examples?
He did put a hiring freeze into effect. Don't think that is a good thing.

the idea isnt to wait and see the effects and then play monday morning qb. the point is to hae an opinion now. curious to know what yours are.

so you dont like the hiring freeze on some (non military) govt workers? A freeze designed to assess waste?

What about: keystone and dakota pipelines, withdraw from tpp, immigration enforcement (no catch-release, increased border patrol...)

the idea isnt to wait and see the effects and then play monday morning qb. the point is to hae an opinion now. curious to know what yours are.

[springles]

The presidents trade policies and tax policies among other things have no effect on the market. Ok I got it now. 

thats not what he said at all, dont make me look bad, Im trying to promote you as someone who can give credit when its due and sometimes see things objectively.
The stock market is affected by many many things. Some are in the presidents control but the vast majority are not. Therefore he said that if the market does crash then he does not think it will be because of the president. Sounds like a reasonable opinion to have.

[JTZ]

Here is what he said:

The crash will have nothing to do with the President, which is why these "goalposts" as stationary as they may be, are completely meaningless.

To make a statement like that IMHO is not accurate. The presidents policies has a direct affect on the market. We can argue all you want on how much affect it has but it does affect the market.

[springles]

Here is what he said:To make a statement like that IMHO is not accurate. The presidents policies has a direct affect on the market. We can argue all you want on how much affect it has but it does affect the market.

He said that the crash (this specific crash) will have nothing to do with the President. I believe he is saying that the many other things that affect the market would be responsible. I agree with that because I believe that a correction is on the way because these companies are overvalued and people are ignoring important data. In my opinion, if there is a crash it would have been a year+ in the making and therefore not because of trump. If there is no crash/correction then I think it would be likely due to the president doing something or several things that help. That's my opinion, I think the other side is a reasonable opinion too but you can't say that this view is wrong

[JTZ]

This is why you need goalposts. Market crashes tomorrow and some will say it was in the making. Others will say it is because the market is afraid of Trunps "America first" restrictive trade policy. Others will have their own reasons. You need some benchmark unless the only thing you are looking to do is argue.

Market goes up 20% in the next six months. Some will say it was still a carryover from Obamas policies. Others will say it is because Trumps policies. This goes on forever.

Give me a benchmark to use! 

[hachover]

Here's my prediction FWIW. The famous Trump bump reflected knowledgeable investors pricing in the possibility of favorable changes to corporate tax policy. If definitive movements towards such changes don't materialize in the near future, I expect a rapid reversal. Also, with interest rates predicted to continue rising this year I expect both a contraction in the money supply and an increase in the variety of investment vehicles that will provide an attractive return for long term savings, neither of which is good for the demand half of the equity market. Achieving psychological milestones like dow at 20,000 makes a correction seem more and not less imminent.

When you factor in the percentage of invested assets that are being passively managed it is no surprise that spikes and corrections seem to happen long after fundamentals start to indicate their likelihood. I'm with JTZ in hoping this is not what will happen, though I don't agree with the goalposts philosophy at all.

I'm an optimist but only because life isn't going to give me any other good choices.

[Super Speed]

Some will say it was still a carryover from Obamas policies.

No one will think it's Obama's policies that made it go up. Trust me.
On a more serious note to have goal posts set in stone and not look into the reason is stupidity. To say the reason it went up election night was because of Obama's policies is frankly stupid. When he tweets against Boeing and their stocks tanked you can't say that was Obama's fault. So instead of keep repeating your dumb idea of no moving goal posts think of something more intelligent.

[aygart]

This is why you need goalposts. Market crashes tomorrow and some will say it was in the making. Others will say it is because the market is afraid of Trunps "America first" restrictive trade policy. Others will have their own reasons. You need some benchmark unless the only thing you are looking to do is argue.

Market goes up 20% in the next six months. Some will say it was still a carryover from Obamas policies. Others will say it is because Trumps policies. This goes on forever.

Give me a benchmark to use! 

I have good goalposts to use. Let's count how many sunny days there are during each presidency.

Since the market has so many factors involved with all of them based on speculation of the future and many policies only having their full effect known many years later it cannot be used as a change of policy nor credited or blamed on any president.

[yuneeq]

http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/01/national-park-service-defies-trump-gag-order-tweets-climate-change-facts

Trump ordered the blackout. He should discipline himself? 

His presidency has it's own ideas on how it will run the country, and what policies it will set, so it's reasonable to give them some time to turn it over. During that transition period there's no reason an agency should defy the administration's orders from releasing public statements (especially ones that may affect political discourse) until the transition is complete. Anyone at the National Park that is intentionally defying their bosses' orders should be fired immediately.

[aradisc]

Love that this is breaking headline news. Same thing he's been saying forever with no proof.

We finally learned today that his source is a mangled story about a foreign golfer, who while waiting in line to vote saw people "who did not look as if they should be allowed to vote"! (Never mind the golfer is not a US citizen...) But I guess Trump will run with anything that confirms his paranoid delusions.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/25/us/politics/trump-bernhard-langer-voting-fraud.html?_r=0

[springles]

Here's my prediction FWIW. The famous Trump bump reflected knowledgeable investors pricing in the possibility of favorable changes to corporate tax policy. If definitive movements towards such changes don't materialize in the near future, I expect a rapid reversal. Also, with interest rates predicted to continue rising this year I expect both a contraction in the money supply and an increase in the variety of investment vehicles that will provide an attractive return for long term savings, neither of which is good for the demand half of the equity market. Achieving psychological milestones like dow at 20,000 makes a correction seem more and not less imminent.

When you factor in the percentage of invested assets that are being passively managed it is no surprise that spikes and corrections seem to happen long after fundamentals start to indicate their likelihood. I'm with JTZ in hoping this is not what will happen, though I don't agree with the goalposts philosophy at all.

I'm an optimist but only because life isn't going to give me any other good choices.

I agree with this