Topic Wiki

Thread summary:

Trump walks in a room.

1. Moshe123 shoots at him because he is pure evil, 2. ilherman+hachover jump in front of the bullets because Trump is our savior. 3. aygart tackles Moshe123 because Trump is better than HRC, 4. but Baruch can't stand Trump so he tells aygart he's crazy and Trump is a madman. 5. ExGingi would like to point out that who cares what he is, all that matters is the supreme court nominations. 6. Dan and others aren't really sure how this makes them feel plus they don't really want to drink poison. 7. Spoiler alert: Moshe123's gun was empty, it was just a blank.

And Freddie is in the back of the room just cooking his cholent. Until he announces that there are TWO menu choices, Pareve Cholent or Vegetable Lasagna. While etech0 figured out that they are both poisoned.


Repeat x100.

And then Hilary walks into the room with the most confidence a candidate has had in recent history. She is so confident that she eats both the Pareve Cholent and Vegetable Lasagna. Everyone is the room is aghast, they don't know how this happened, could it be Comey is behind this poisoning or was it that her Obamacare premiums were to high to get her the help she needed.

Everyone stared as she choked and was cast into oblivion on November, 8, 2016 the last day she was heard from in the public eye.

Moshe123, ilherman, hachover, Baruch, ExGingi, Dan, Freddie, etech0, and the rest of America are in total shock and hope that so long as Trump doesn't eat any Pareve Cholent and Vegetable Lasagna and stays true to his supreme court nominees this may be the greatest thing to happen since the CSR and GC's.

But remember this may be the beginning of the end...

P.S. Thanks to cognitive dissonance aygart, Michael Moore, and Scott Adams knew the whole time that Trump could win, unfortunately for JTZ he may be off DDF for the next 4 years due to his mandatory 3 times daily consumption of CROW!

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sub notes:

Nov 8 : Time to edit the wiki. Biggest upset in American History according to Michael Isikoff.


http://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=57647.0

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump?lang=en
http://blog.dilbert.com/
http://fivethirtyeight.com/
All Political Ads - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCvuOH0oJFwElBgRKz-eMlLw

As things turns out, the most prescient view on this election was that of Michael Moore! Though Scott Adams is also claiming a high view level of prescience.


Poll

Who are you voting for?

Clinton
12 (10.3%)
Trump
67 (57.3%)
Johnson
2 (1.7%)
Other (Write in)
8 (6.8%)
I don't vote in general and won't be voting this year
9 (7.7%)
I do vote in general, but won't be this year
19 (16.2%)

Total Members Voted: 117

Author Topic: US Politics/2016 Election Pick Your Poison Master Thread  (Read 4105953 times)

Offline skyguy918

  • Dansdeals Presidential Platinum Elite
  • ********
  • Join Date: Mar 2011
  • Posts: 4097
  • Total likes: 857
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: Queens, NY
Re: 2016 Election Pick Your Poison Master Thread
« Reply #10540 on: January 26, 2017, 11:22:53 AM »
It could be around there. But to use a number based on people collecting unemployment is seriously useless.
Maybe watch the video first (or do any sort of basic research on the topic) before digging your hole deeper.

Offline good sam

  • Dansdeals Presidential Platinum Elite
  • ********
  • Join Date: Jun 2011
  • Posts: 3524
  • Total likes: 559
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 10
    • View Profile
Re: 2016 Election Pick Your Poison Master Thread
« Reply #10541 on: January 26, 2017, 11:27:18 AM »
Outrage Dilution

1 outrage out of 3 headlines in a week: Bad Persuasion
25 outrages out of 25 headlines in a week: Excellent Persuasion
At the moment there are so many outrages, executive orders, protests, and controversies that none of them can get enough oxygen in our brains. I canít obsess about problem X because the rest of the alphabet is coming at me at the same time.
"In only a few days, Trump has made us question what-the-hell every other president was doing during their first weeks in office. Were they even trying?"
If you don't care why would you comment?
HT: DMYD

Online aygart

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 19166
  • Total likes: 15316
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 14
    • View Profile
    • Lower Watt Energy Brokers
  • Programs: www.lowerwatt.com
Re: 2016 Election Pick Your Poison Master Thread
« Reply #10542 on: January 26, 2017, 11:31:51 AM »
"In only a few days, Trump has made us question what-the-hell every other president was doing during their first weeks in office. Were they even trying?"
But he wrote a ridiculous tweet!
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline yuneeq

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Jan 2013
  • Posts: 8934
  • Total likes: 4157
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 10
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: NJ
Re: 2016 Election Pick Your Poison Master Thread
« Reply #10543 on: January 26, 2017, 11:45:12 AM »
You are using "alternative facts" just like your savior. Anyone who believes the unemployment rate is 41% like Trump is an...  :)

So anyone who doesn't agree with you is considered alternative facts.
The government is now churning out alternative facts.
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

Tell me, are 95% of Americans who can work, employed?
90%?
80%?
70%?

Didn't think so.
Visibly Jewish

Offline zh cohen

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Dec 2013
  • Posts: 1739
  • Total likes: 1773
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: 412
Re: 2016 Election Pick Your Poison Master Thread
« Reply #10544 on: January 26, 2017, 11:59:46 AM »

Offline skyguy918

  • Dansdeals Presidential Platinum Elite
  • ********
  • Join Date: Mar 2011
  • Posts: 4097
  • Total likes: 857
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: Queens, NY
Re: 2016 Election Pick Your Poison Master Thread
« Reply #10545 on: January 26, 2017, 12:06:09 PM »
So anyone who doesn't agree with you is considered alternative facts.
The government is now churning out alternative facts.
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

Tell me, are 95% of Americans who can work, employed?
90%?
80%?
70%?

Didn't think so.
You're looking at labor force participation rate, which is very different from unemployment rate. But you'd know that if you'd bothered to learn anything about the topic.

As the clip I posted points out, labor force participation is most closely tied to demographics - ie when you have the massive cohort of the baby boomers hitting retirement, it brings the participation rate down, despite the actual unemployment rate falling as well. That's why it's not particularly instructive to the discussion on unemployment.

Offline Super Speed

  • Dansdeals Presidential Platinum Elite
  • ********
  • Join Date: Jul 2013
  • Posts: 4862
  • Total likes: 50
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 4
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Programs: SPG Gold, Hilton Gold, Hyatt Platinum, Marriott Gold, Hertz Presidents Circle, Avis First, National Executive Elite, Sixt Platinum.
Re: 2016 Election Pick Your Poison Master Thread
« Reply #10546 on: January 26, 2017, 12:07:28 PM »
You're looking at labor force participation rate, which is very different from unemployment rate. But you'd know that if you'd bothered to learn anything about the topic.

As the clip I posted points out, labor force participation is most closely tied to demographics - ie when you have the massive cohort of the baby boomers hitting retirement, it brings the participation rate down, despite the actual unemployment rate falling as well. That's why it's not particularly instructive to the discussion on unemployment.
As long as you can skew the numbers to make your savior, BHO, look good you'll do it. Got it.

Offline skyguy918

  • Dansdeals Presidential Platinum Elite
  • ********
  • Join Date: Mar 2011
  • Posts: 4097
  • Total likes: 857
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: Queens, NY
Re: 2016 Election Pick Your Poison Master Thread
« Reply #10547 on: January 26, 2017, 12:13:01 PM »
As long as you can skew the numbers to make your savior, BHO, look good you'll do it. Got it.
When you show a basic understanding of what each set of numbers represents, then you can start talking about skewing. I'm about as apolitical as it gets. Not everything has to be about R vs D. Seems like many here are more obsessed with BHO than any lib.

Offline yuneeq

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Jan 2013
  • Posts: 8934
  • Total likes: 4157
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 10
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: NJ
Re: 2016 Election Pick Your Poison Master Thread
« Reply #10548 on: January 26, 2017, 12:15:25 PM »
You're looking at labor force participation rate, which is very different from unemployment rate. But you'd know that if you'd bothered to learn anything about the topic.

As the clip I posted points out, labor force participation is most closely tied to demographics - ie when you have the massive cohort of the baby boomers hitting retirement, it brings the participation rate down, despite the actual unemployment rate falling as well. That's why it's not particularly instructive to the discussion on unemployment.

I'm not arguing what the "official" employment rate is.
I'm saying that the actual employment rate is the labor force participation rate. And that's 100% true.
The fact is, the shrinking workforce has huge negative ramifications to the economy, whether you want to blame the decline on Obama or not.
Visibly Jewish

Online aygart

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 19166
  • Total likes: 15316
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 14
    • View Profile
    • Lower Watt Energy Brokers
  • Programs: www.lowerwatt.com
Re: 2016 Election Pick Your Poison Master Thread
« Reply #10549 on: January 26, 2017, 12:29:45 PM »
I'm not arguing what the "official" employment rate is.
I'm saying that the actual employment rate is the labor force participation rate. And that's 100% true.
The fact is, the shrinking workforce has huge negative ramifications to the economy, whether you want to blame the decline on Obama or not.
The bigger question isn't if it should be credited to or blamed on him but whether it is an indicator at all. If 20% of those not working are retired then the number is meaningless.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline skyguy918

  • Dansdeals Presidential Platinum Elite
  • ********
  • Join Date: Mar 2011
  • Posts: 4097
  • Total likes: 857
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: Queens, NY
Re: 2016 Election Pick Your Poison Master Thread
« Reply #10550 on: January 26, 2017, 12:47:05 PM »
I'm not arguing what the "official" employment rate is.
I'm saying that the actual employment rate is the labor force participation rate. And that's 100% true.
The fact is, the shrinking workforce has huge negative ramifications to the economy, whether you want to blame the decline on Obama or not.
How do you figure? Have you read anything on the subject? No one uses labor force participation rate to measure unemployment. It's not that it's irrelevant to the economy overall - there can come a point where demographics create too small a labor force to sustain economic growth. That's not where we are though. One thing LFPR was very good at highlighting was the gender gap.

ETA: The reason why the BLS tracks unemployment separately from LFPR is specifically because the latter doesn't do a good job of measuring unemployment.
The bigger question isn't if it should be credited to or blamed on him but whether it is an indicator at all. If 20% of those not working are retired then the number is meaningless.
+1. And I wasn't suggesting that the drop in unemployment rate be fully attributed to Obama. I'm not particularly interested in that discussion, as it's in the past. The point is knowing where we stand today. It's being able to ignore the rhetoric that says we're in terrible shape and we need the president to take drastic action to improve our position.

Offline yuneeq

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Jan 2013
  • Posts: 8934
  • Total likes: 4157
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 10
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: NJ
Re: 2016 Election Pick Your Poison Master Thread
« Reply #10551 on: January 26, 2017, 12:52:43 PM »
The bigger question isn't if it should be credited to or blamed on him but whether it is an indicator at all. If 20% of those not working are retired then the number is meaningless.

The numbers don't discriminate. How about social security payment and welfare beneficiaries- how can we afford to pay out as usual when the primary source of funding (employment) go dry? Not exactly meaningless if you ask me.
Visibly Jewish

Online aygart

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 19166
  • Total likes: 15316
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 14
    • View Profile
    • Lower Watt Energy Brokers
  • Programs: www.lowerwatt.com
Re: 2016 Election Pick Your Poison Master Thread
« Reply #10552 on: January 26, 2017, 12:54:08 PM »


It's being able to ignore the rhetoric that says we're in terrible shape and we need the president to take drastic action to improve our position.
We should always ignore anything saying we need a president to take drastic action

Feelings don't care about your facts

Online aygart

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 19166
  • Total likes: 15316
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 14
    • View Profile
    • Lower Watt Energy Brokers
  • Programs: www.lowerwatt.com
Re: 2016 Election Pick Your Poison Master Thread
« Reply #10553 on: January 26, 2017, 12:57:26 PM »
The numbers don't discriminate. How about social security payment and welfare beneficiaries- how can we afford to pay out as usual when the primary source of funding (employment) go dry? Not exactly meaningless if you ask me.
Now you want goalposts?

That is certainly an issue, but one which does not tell us anything about the effect a presidents policies had on employment.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline skyguy918

  • Dansdeals Presidential Platinum Elite
  • ********
  • Join Date: Mar 2011
  • Posts: 4097
  • Total likes: 857
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: Queens, NY
Re: 2016 Election Pick Your Poison Master Thread
« Reply #10554 on: January 26, 2017, 12:57:56 PM »
The numbers don't discriminate. How about social security payment and welfare beneficiaries- how can we afford to pay out as usual when the primary source of funding (employment) go dry? Not exactly meaningless if you ask me.
If the numbers don't discriminate between retired persons and unemployed persons, then aren't you looking at the wrong numbers?

Offline yuneeq

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Jan 2013
  • Posts: 8934
  • Total likes: 4157
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 10
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: NJ
Re: 2016 Election Pick Your Poison Master Thread
« Reply #10555 on: January 26, 2017, 12:58:07 PM »
How do you figure? Have you read anything on the subject? No one uses labor force participation rate to measure unemployment. It's not that it's irrelevant to the economy overall - there can come a point where demographics create too small a labor force to sustain economic growth. That's not where we are though. One thing LFPR was very good at highlighting was the gender gap.

ETA: The reason why the BLS tracks unemployment separately from LFPR is specifically because the latter doesn't do a good job of measuring unemployment.+1. And I wasn't suggesting that the drop in unemployment rate be fully attributed to Obama. I'm not particularly interested in that discussion, as it's in the past. The point is knowing where we stand today. It's being able to ignore the rhetoric that says we're in terrible shape and we need the president to take drastic action to improve our position.

The point I was making is that unemployment rate does not tell us much about the health of the economy, and it seems you agree with that. No single statistic will tell us how well the economy is doing. You also need to take in account (stagnant) wage growth vs inflation, underemployment, and a slew of other statistics. My point about LFPR was simply a refutation of JTZ who thinks it's preposterous to believe that 38% of employable Americans are not working. Which is true. What the ramifications are- as I mentioned earlier- social security, and welfare money drying up.


Visibly Jewish

Offline yuneeq

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Jan 2013
  • Posts: 8934
  • Total likes: 4157
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 10
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: NJ
Re: 2016 Election Pick Your Poison Master Thread
« Reply #10556 on: January 26, 2017, 12:59:59 PM »
Now you want goalposts?

That is certainly an issue, but one which does not tell us anything about the effect a presidents policies had on employment.

I specifically didn't say if Obama is responsible for the decline.
In regards to the unemployment rate, I believe the same.
Visibly Jewish

Offline yuneeq

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Jan 2013
  • Posts: 8934
  • Total likes: 4157
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 10
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: NJ
Re: 2016 Election Pick Your Poison Master Thread
« Reply #10557 on: January 26, 2017, 01:04:49 PM »
If the numbers don't discriminate between retired persons and unemployed persons, then aren't you looking at the wrong numbers?

Depends what you're trying to learn from the data.
Are people are retiring too early? Will social security will go bust?
Are people are giving up on looking for jobs or are happy living off welfare?

Again, as I stated before- no single statistic will tell you all the answers we need to know.
You use the LFPR and the unemployment rate as the first numbers you look at before delving deeper into other data, like wage growth, welfare beneficiaries, GDP, etc.
Visibly Jewish

Online cholent

  • Dansdeals Presidential Platinum Elite
  • ********
  • Join Date: Aug 2014
  • Posts: 2717
  • Total likes: 527
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
    • View Profile
Don't ask stupid questions and you won't get stupid answers

Offline skyguy918

  • Dansdeals Presidential Platinum Elite
  • ********
  • Join Date: Mar 2011
  • Posts: 4097
  • Total likes: 857
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: Queens, NY
Re: 2016 Election Pick Your Poison Master Thread
« Reply #10559 on: January 26, 2017, 01:10:57 PM »
The point I was making is that unemployment rate does not tell us much about the health of the economy, and it seems you agree with that.
I certainly do not. I said LFPR doesn't tell us much that isn't better told by the unemployment rate. What the unemployment numbers show is that we're in about as good a position as were before the crash in '08. Of course we're not at 100% employment, and there's always room for growth.
No single statistic will tell us how well the economy is doing. You also need to take in account (stagnant) wage growth vs inflation, underemployment, and a slew of other statistics. My point about LFPR was simply a refutation of JTZ who thinks it's preposterous to believe that 38% of employable Americans are not working. Which is true. What the ramifications are- as I mentioned earlier- social security, and welfare money drying up.
He never said that. In fact he repeatedly used the appropriate term, unemployment rate, and you replied with LFPR.

Depends what you're trying to learn from the data.
Are people are retiring too early? Will social security will go bust?
Are people are giving up on looking for jobs or are happy living off welfare?

Again, as I stated before- no single statistic will tell you all the answers we need to know.
You use the LFPR and the unemployment rate as the first numbers you look at before delving deeper into other data, like wage growth, welfare beneficiaries, GDP, etc.
The point is that monetary and economic policy have a far greater effect on the unemployment rate than the LFPR. The president doesn't control demographics. At best a president can try to use policy to react to demographics. So using the 'low' LFPR to detract from the prior administration is disingenuous - as is ignoring the stabilization of unemployment during that period.